The Exception to the Rule


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Friday, 28 September 2018

Friday's 2YO Update

Godolphin third string
2:40 Haydock - 

A couple of big guns here. Nice fillies in the shape of Lady Aria who has run well on all three starts for Michael Bell. A half-length loss at Group 3 tells the story and not a surprise to see this two-year-old at prohibitive odds. 

Karl Burke is represented by Ellhedi who lost by a neck on debut and then failed to shine at Listed class back in July. It is possible this daughter of Invincible Spirit disappointed.

Interesting to see Arletta Star return for Tim Easterby. She made her debut at Carlisle back in June. She had been given a Listed entry but a big price on debut as if little was expected. The form of that race is fair. Not seen for over 100 days. Needs to improve a good deal but may appreciate this step up to 6f. 

Lady Aria 2/7f 1st 
Ellhedi 3/1 2nd 
Arletta Star 15/2 

Conclusion: Lady Aria will take a lot of beating but a second at Group class sets the standard by some way. An official rating of 100 should see a tidy victory but who wants to bet 1/4f. Ellhedi is the major opponent and maybe some peoples idea of an each-way alternative. Arletta Star is interesting but needs to sprout wings to trouble the jolly. 

3:15 Haydock - 

Wise Counsel is progressing with racing. A horse with plenty of entries, which suggested this son of Invincible Spirit was better than seen. That proved correct when he ran much better on more testing conditions. He was hampered but showed a lot of character thereafter. The form of that race has been franked. Has very good claims. 

Steph Hollinshead doesn't have many two-year-olds in training. Tizwotitiz ran his best race second time out when unlucky not to win. With an official rating of 68 this bay gelding has little hope. 

Wise Counsel 2/7f 1st 
Tizwwotitiz 66/1 4th 

4:10 Newmarket - 

Interesting that Godolphin has three two-year-olds here. The two favourites are not entered. However, the third string, by racing silks, has received a couple of significant entries. Wings Of Time is priced 14/1. It is often the case the second or third string show ability, so this factor may not be the death knell. This son of Invincible Spirit is out of a Listed-class winner. I wonder if there will be some money for this juvenile? Interesting. 

John Ryan fields Shining Armor who has received a Group entry. However, he showed little ability last time out. He ran wide for most, which is impossible on a turning course. A step up to 7f may help but it looks a challenge too far.        

Wings Of Time 20/1 7th
Shining Armor 100/1 8th 

Conclusion: Interesting to see if there is any money for Wings Of Time. I wouldn't be put off by the third colours because they really don't mean too much for the stables. It may be worth taking a speculative each-way punt if available at big odds on the exchanges. It is possible this horse will be backed. Not the easiest juvenile to assess but worthy of closer inspection.