The Exception to the Rule


Saturday, 18 May 2019

Saturday's 2yo Update (18th May)

Clipper Logistics horse racing
Friday's post showed the power of not only Group Horse but analysis. 

Four two-year-olds races for Saturday. 

4:15 Newbury

A Class 2 race so all these are significantly entered. Looks a hot race with five winning debutantes and unbeaten so far. Interesting to see Wesley Wards Joker on Jack who won ''very easily'' on debut over four-and-a-half furlongs at Keeneland, America. This son of Declaration Of War will have plenty of speed to burn. 

Other winners include Well Of Wisdom, Fort Myers, Temple Of Heaven & Firepower, who we forwarding on our first mailing list. 

 An exceptionally difficult race to assess. I enjoy these contests from a purists perspective, as I would suggest you should have bet on these to win on debut rather than second time out. However, each to their own. 

The winner will have big claims when heading to Royal Ascot 2019. 

The only other significantly-entered two-year-old running today can be found in the following race:

2:10 Thirsk - 

Richard Fahey has a decent string of juveniles and a few fair winners. 

Jaunty is the sole entrant noted here. This bay daughter of Acclamation races in the familiar ownership of Cheveley Park Stud. She is out of a winning mare who raced at Group class when trained by Jeremy Noseda. This homebred is of interest as this owner/trainer partnership often go well and notably at this course. 

What do we make of Jaunty's chance here? The betting at the time of writing has this filly priced 10/1. The stable do have a few debut winners go in at big odds which is more than many handlers. They can win at 10/1. In fact, they have had over a dozen two-year-old debutantes win from 14/1 - 40/1 over the last few years (not saying how many years as I don't like to reveal too much data). If priced 13/2 & less SP would increase hopes. 

This looks a difficult race and I would need to assess the betting to appreciate the strength and weakness of the leading fancies who, at this time, don't have significant entries. It doesn't mean they won't - most will. 

To appreciate the assessment of any race brings many variables and reason why a horse may win or lose. In addition, all horses have the potential to defy the odds. 

Charlie Appleby is a trainer who can win with debut two-year-olds. You don't need me to tell you that. Although there are many high-profile trainers who you may think take all the beating when fancied in the betting which I can prove isn't the case. Althiqua is a homebred daughter of Dark Angel. From a statistical point of view has strong claims. 

This factor also applies to Archie Watson's Endless Joy. I was at Great Yarmouth with my brother when this daughter of Showcasing was sent off 4/6f. I think connections Clipper Logistics thought she would win well. This 90,000 guineas yearling purchase is a good-looking bay. She travelled like the winner for most. However, inexperience proved costly and by the time she got organised the race was lost - beaten by a couple of fair juveniles in Companion and Quiet Place. Both have been beaten since, although they are very capable horses in their own right. Endless Joy will be wiser for that first start and you will see a more vigorous ride on this occasion. 

To add to the melee we have another debutante worthy of note for James Tate. This bay daughter of More Than Ready is a recent breeze-up purchase costing 230,000 guineas. Nasaiym has been backed on the exchanges, with a few punters taking odds as big at 10/1. The betting for this stable's debutantes is often revealing. I'm not going to say the betting guide because it isn't in my interests. As with all information and understanding it doesn't just appear and that is why you keep coming back to read what we detail because it goes far and above what others detail as ''information''. 

Conclusion: A fascinating race. To understand to a higher level I would be looking at the betting closer to the off. It may give enough support to see a weakness in one of the favourites. Unless Althiqua and Endless Joy drift markedly in the betting they are the horses to beat. Nasaiym could well be a major player if certain factors come into play. Jaunty may hold claims. Richard Fahey is one trainer who can win with debutantes at big odds, which gives her some hope. 

A very intriguing race. 

3:50 Newmarket - 

Interesting to see that Richard Hannon has Willa here with a couple of Class 2 stakes race entries. A huge price here at over 30/1 on the exchanges. I imagine it is seen as their second string to Falconidea. Willa may well be second string, although Hannon's aren't beyond pulling a number at times. 

If you enjoy reading these posts then please remember that giving and receiving are a two-way road. Simply share this post because it makes a difference to why I should bother to write. I don't mean to be blunt, but I don't need to write any of these posts. I do it for those who read. 

Friday, 17 May 2019

Friday's 2yo Entrants (17th May)

York horse racing
Good to hear from a few readers this week. I appreciate people taking the time to give their feedback. I have detailed the entrants, horses of interest and those of statistical merit. Given the time restraint, I cannot give any more information about today's runners. I am sure this will be a pointer. 

I hope this helps.  

Three two-year-old races for Friday:

1:50 York - 

5f Langley's Solicitors British EBF Marygate Fillies Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo)

This Class 2 race so all juveniles are significantly entered. 

Never an easy race to pin down. As I often say, it isn't a good idea to limit a  winning horse and there are a good few going here. 

This isn't the type of race I would bet, preferring lower grade races. If hard pressed, I would side with Lady Kermit, who is very fast and likely to set the pace and could well hold any late challengers. This course should suit and the going should be to her liking. She hasn't raced on the turf, so that is a slight unknown although I don't think it will be a problem. 

One horse who may have a chance at bigger odds is David Evans' Good Vibes. What do I like about this daughter of Due Diligence? She is a good-looking filly, with size and scope to improve. She was pretty keen for a couple of furlongs at Salisbury but still managed to win. May have each-way claims at 14/1. 

I won't be betting on this race as it isn't appealing to me. 

2:45 Newbury - 

6f Starlight Raceday Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) (Class 4) (2yo)

Let's take a look at the significantly-entered two-year-olds going here. 

William Haggas has his first significantly-entered two-year-old going here in the shape of Baadirr a 180,000 guinea yearling. 

Richard Hannon is warming up, although winners have been hard to find. Ziggle Pops has received two entries of late, which brings some hope. This Irish-bred son of Zoffany cost 55,000 guineas at the sales. 

Gypsy Rocker is worthy of note. This Irish-bred son of Slade Power cost 38,000 euros as a yearling (cost more as a foal). Interesting this chestnut colt has been entered for two class 2 stakes races. Meehan's juveniles have been few and far between this season although Top Buck ran well in the Lily Agnes and Aroha ran well on Thursday when second at Salisbury. Brian Meehan is an interesting trainer as, strangely, his speculatively-priced debutantes often run better than his fancied horses in the betting. At odds of 25/1, this juvenile isn't without some hope. 

Charlie Hills makes a return with Walton Thorns, who didn't show a great deal in the Brocklesby Stakes. He was relatively fancied that day but showed little. The apprentice onboard may be a sign that there isn't too much expected but time will tell. 

Readers may notice a couple of horses that do not, at this moment, have entries but worthy of note. Light Angel, trained by John Gosden, ran well of debut when a narrow loser. This son of Dark Angel isn't the biggest, but a good-looking grey colt who will take some stopping here. With valuable experience and stats which detail a big run, I would fear this youngster if betting against it. 

Heaven Forfend is the first two-year-old runner for Sir Michael Stoute in the Cheveley Park Stud silks. The betting guide is helpful. About 80% of Stoute's 2yo debutantes win priced 7/1 & less sp. In fact, priced over 9/2, the win stats are pretty poor. However, it is interesting this colt is making his debut at this time, which may indicate Royal Ascot is on the cards. 

5:55 Hamilton - 

Keith Dalgleish has Glasvegas noted as a significant runner here. This bay colt was a narrow loser on debut at Musselburgh. 

Penmellyn ran in a tough race on debut when a long way behind Lady Kermit. That was a Class 2 stakes and this could be easier. That entry may signify more is to come.

Taxiwala doesn't have any significant entries at this time but ran well on debut, a race I think will prove to be decent. From a statistical point of view, this horse is the one to beat. 

As we have said so many times before - you won't find better 2yo info anywhere on the internet. 

Thursday, 16 May 2019

Will Too Darn Hot Make Epsom Statement?

Too Darn Hot Horse Racing
Magna Grecia made a statement in the first major flat race of the campaign, claiming a victory at the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket for Aidan O’Brien. 

The Irish-bred horse was one of the leading contenders for the crown along with his stable-mate Ten Sovereigns. However, Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle guided his charge over the line ahead of the rest of the field, claiming the race for his father Aidan for the 10th time in his career. 

All eyes will now turn to the next major outing – The Derby at Epsom Downs in June. The field will be joined by other talented horses due to the slight increase in distance. Magna Grecia will remain one of the favourites in the betting odds among the leading bookies to take the race, although there are other talented competitors waiting to pounce.

Too Darn Hot was the horse that drew the attention of pundits before the start of the season and he will be one to watch when the action commences after missing the Guineas due to injury. We’ll now break down the leading competitors for the crown. 

Magna Grecia

In the absence of Too Darn Hot, the field opened up allowing Magna Grecia to take the crown in the 2,000 Guineas. He was considered one of the leading runners for the event, although not quite of the calibre of Ten Sovereigns. Magna Grecia did have success as a two-year-old, winning his Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden in Naas over seven furlongs. Persian King defeated him by a neck at the Masar Godolphin Autumn Stakes in Newmarket last October, although he managed to bounce back with a fine outing in the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes to end last season. After six months off the track, he returned to action for the Guineas at a starting price of 11/2. 

Ten Sovereigns drew the attention, but when it came down to the pace on the track, it was all Magna Grecia. Donnacha O’Brien was impressive at the reins, urging his charge down the straight to close out the win by two-and-a-quarter lengths ahead of King Of Change. Aidan O’Brien has suggested that he might not run the Irish-bred horse in the event given the way that last season’s 2,000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior underwhelmed at the Epsom Downs. However, he could be swayed by Magna Grecia’s form at the Irish Guineas in the near future. 

Too Darn Hot

John Gosden has been cautious with his next great charge, holding him out of action due to an injury concern. Gosden made the decision weeks before the contest and it looks to have been a wise choice given that the horse is making his way back to fitness for The Derby. Too Darn Hot was the class of the two-year-old field last season. He made his bow in the EBF Maiden Stakes at Sandown Park, finishing seven lengths ahead of his nearest rival. The bay colt was just as dominant in his next outing at the Solario Stakes. Frankie Dettori at the reins ensured that his charge was in rhythm, finishing four lengths ahead of the field to claim the victory. 

Phoenix of Spain provided his first real challenge down the stretch at the Champagne Stakes. However, Too Darn Hot was able to see off the threat to win with relative ease, cantering over the line. Gosden’s charge made his mark at the Dewhurst Stakes to end the 2018 campaign. He was the odds-on favourite and delivered an outstanding performance, taking charge of the race in the final furlong to finish two-and-three-quarter lengths ahead of Advertise. It has been a while since he has been in action and his injury could be a factor, but talent wise there does not appear to be a better competitor on the track. Gosden has not won The Derby since 1997 with Benny the Dip, but Too Darn Hot has the credentials to end his drought. 

Sir Dragonet

O’Brien could have unearthed another gem out of nowhere in time for The Derby. Sir Dragonet did not compete as a two-year-old as the trainer built up his charge in his yard. However, he does have the pedigree of a champion – being the son of the 2012 Derby winner Camelot. The Irish-bred horse arrived at Tipperary for his maiden race as an outsider for the event at 14/1. His stable-mate King Pellinor was the favourite, but he and the rest of the field were blown away by the performance of Sir Dragonet. Seamie Heffernan in the saddle drove his charge into contention and the horse responded with a surge down the stretch to close out the win by three lengths. 

Despite the impressive nature of his display at Tipperary, Sir Dragnonet was still not considered one of the leading contenders for the Chester Vase Stakes. Opinions would soon change as Donnacha O’Brien guided the three-year-old to a dominant performance at Chester. He kept pace with the leaders for the majority of the contest before he made his move to pull away. The rest of the field failed to match his pace, easing to the victory by eight lengths. Sir Dragonet could be yet another imperious horse to emerge from Aidan O’Brien’s yard. The Irishman is in pursuit of Lester Piggott's record of nine Derby winners. O’Brien has six at the moment, but between Sir Dragonet and Magna Grecia – it could be seven. Too Darn Hot and Gosden stand in his way.

Wednesday, 15 May 2019

Archie Watson's Execlusive Trounces Opposition At Beverley

Another significantly entered two-year-old detailed by Group Horse trounces the opposition at Beverley. Archie Watson's juveniles have been in flying form all season and this bay filly is just one of four horses noted by us at this early stage of the season. All of those horses have not just won but thrashed the opposition on debut. 

Execlusive is a March foal and sired by Kodiac in the ownership of Rabbah Racing. She looks a bargain yearling buy at just 40,000 guineas. 

Touching as big as 11/4 on the exchanges, the late money come for the filly who led from a wide draw and pulled clear of the field in an easy fashion to win by over two lengths at 13/8f. 

Archie Watson has led the way this season with his two-year-olds who are primed and ready to go well. The majority lead from the stalls and most they don't get caught. 

Group Horse has detailed four two-year-olds from Archie Watson's stable at this time. They include:

Lady Kermit who has won two out of two starts this season and looks a very talented daughter of Starspangledbanner. 

Electric Ladyland who had similarly won both her two starts before disappointing at Chester when hindered by a wide draw in the Lily Agnes Stakes. 

In addition, Littledidyouknow has won two starts to date. 

All of these youngsters are likely to be heading to Royal Ascot 2019. 

Tuesday, 14 May 2019

Kemble Storms Home for Hannon at Windsor

Kemble 2yo trained by Richard Hannon wins at Windsor
Richard Hannon has started the two-year-old season with meagre pickings. However, if you take a moment to review his list of juveniles on the Group Horse 2019 you will see he has 17 youngsters with significant entries (there will be more to follow). Only three two-year-olds have won this Flat season, but there will be more to come this month. 

It was good to see Kemble (pictured) storm clear of her rivals at Windsor (5:50) on Monday evening. This daughter of Kodiac is a fine-looking filly, who started her career in an exceptionally strong Stakes race at Newmarket won by Charlie Appleby's Chasing Dreams, who looks a live favourite for Royal Ascot. 

Kemble finished third on debut but ran creditably. She showed ample ability over 5f at Windsor to win comfortably by five lengths. Connections must have been happy to see such a facile victory putting a fair Archie Watson juvenile in its place. 

Hannon has had two other juvenile winners this season, both showing their worth on debut. 

Threat won well in the familiar silks of Cheveley Park Stud, while the form of Temple Of Heaven has been franked. All three juveniles are talents and could well be heading to Royal Ascot. 

Temple Of Heaven was considered for the Lily Agnes Stakes. 

Other two-year-olds who will be winning soon include Separate, who went close on debut and has a Listed-race entry to prove this filly's reputation. 

Endowed was very well backed on debut at Ascot, but was found a touch flat-footed in a competitive heat. This son of Dark Angel is better than seen and will go close next time out. Perhaps a step up to 6f will be to his advantage. I have little doubt connections expected more on debut. 

A couple of debutantes which have been showing some class on the gallops include:

Forbidden Land a bay son of Acclamation. 

Ziggle Pops a son of Zoffany. 

Tuesday, 7 May 2019

Stellar Group Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (Plus 10) Cl2 (2yo) (8th May)

2018 Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes Winner No Lippy
No two-year-old horse racing until Wednesday 8th May. 

Then, we have the Stellar Group Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes

Eleven two-year-olds have been declared from an original eighteen paid entrants for this 5f dash. 

Which horse do I think will win? 

I don't know! 

It will be interesting to see which of these early-season juveniles can follow in the hoofprints of many a decent thoroughbred. 

The Lily Agnes is named after a horse of the same name. She won 21 races including the Northumberland Plate. Considering Lily Agnes was foaled in 1871, it was a long time ago. Still, she was a remarkable mare. 

Last year saw Mark Johnston's 6/5f No Lippy win in good style. You can see the race result here.  This daughter of Oasis Dream proved to be a capable horse but somewhat disappointing after two wins from two starts. 

2019 Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes Entrants: 

1)   Show Me Show Me 
2)   Album 
3)   Iva Reflection 
4)   Kidda
5)   Lakeview 
6)   To Buck 
7)   Chasanda 
8)   Dr Simpson 
9)   Electric Ladyland 
10) Great Dame 
11) Lexi The One 

Readers of Group Horse Daily may have noticed we are very good a pinpointing the best two-year-old in training. Take a moment to review recent updates and you will see the majority of two-year-olds we noted won. 

This is just the start. 

You want to know the easiest way to pinpoint top-class two-year-old horses?

Review our 2019 Group Horse Page on a regular basis. If it seems too much trouble, then basically you have little hope of winning. It may sound a bit point blank but it's true. Not simply that the information is the be all and end all. It's not. It's the attitude and the work that goes alongside. 

Follow our updates closely and you will be rewarded by winners of the highest order. 

Thanks for your support.  

Monday, 6 May 2019

Monday's 2yo Update (6th May)

David Evans Horse Trainer
Just a quick look at the significantly entered two-year-olds on Monday. 

1:55 Beverley - 

Just the sole entry. Dylan De Vega ran well at big odds on debut at Nottingham. This son of Poet's Voice lost by half a length but clear of the third. A recent Class 2 Stakes entry adds some promise that this colt is capable of better. Not giving much away at 5/4f.

2:50 Bath -

A restricted Auction Stakes. A couple of entrants here. Heer We Go Again ran in the Brocklesby Stakes. David Evans never lets the grass grow under his horse's feet and this son of Heeraat hasn't done much wrong in his last three starts. In fact, he has run well considering he has been quite keen. The visor has been applied, I imagine, to try help settle this March foal. Bath is a course which often benefits horses with experience and pace although the field can rattle home if the leaders go a stride too fast. Heer We Go Again sets a fair standard although offers very little value at even money. There is a chance this juvenile may regress after a few hard races. 

Interesting to note that Bill Turner has a debutante with an entry. *Summer's Way is a grey daughter of Coach House out of a poor mare who didn't win a race. The sire was a decent sprinter. Summer's Way was withdrawn from the sales and, to be honest, doesn't look the most obvious hope. 

Turner's Brocklesby Stakes runner, Hell Of A Joker, did little, although showed very good pace for four furlongs at Beverley second start (before fading fast). 

Another stablemate Queen's Road was given a similar entry and she showed very good pace at Leicester when a 50/1 shot before fading in the final furlong. 

It is half interesting Turner gave Summer's Way a significant entry and it is a course he has sent a few better juveniles. Readers may remember Little Boy Blue who went very close to winning at Bath on debut when 40/1. 

Summer's Way is the type of horse you may take a chance on a speculative punt simply because she is huge odds. With an apprentice taking off a valuable 5lb, if she has got an element of ability, she will be light as a feather (almost). Also, Turner's juveniles are usually ridden positively so likely to lead, if capable, which may give the opportunity to lay your stake in running at shorter odds. 

In many respects, this looks a tricky race with a few horses which may be better than they look and an unraced juvenile from Mark Johnston to add to the confusion. 

* NR (Summer's Way) 

Friday, 3 May 2019

The Element of Fickledom

People make me smile. 

You know, they say women are fickle. I am not sure who ''they'' are and I'm sure men are as fickle as f*** at times.

We send out a mailing detailing a talented horse in Firepower, trained by Clive Cox, winning the 4:55 Salisbury. 

Guess what? 

Seven people unsubscribe. You have to laugh, hey. I'm sure all of those people have their reasons but if that's what success does then perhaps I'm in the wrong job. Yes, people can believe that. I know exactly what I'm doing and I don't need anyone's plus or minus to appreciate that fact.


I was pleased with the performance of Firepower. They had the annoying split screen on the race which makes assessing the horses and race problematic. However, the colt is a decent looker and won ''readily'' as far as the Racing Post is concerned. I had more information about why this juvenile would be hard to beat but I couldn't detail that as it isn't in my interests. 

Thank the Lord I do all these things to please myself because this is a thankless world where the takers take in abundance. 

Sorry, if that offends anyone but for a few people that's the score. As my good friend Eric Winner says: ''There are too many takers...'' 

The number 7 means completion. So I'm taking a positive from those lesser disciples. 

I really couldn't care if 700 people disappeared because I don't make a brass farthing out of the 1000 subscribers on my list.  

Thanks for those who appreciate. Your interest is my motivation.

Let's take a look at tomorrow's two juvenile races:

1:55 Musselburgh - 

No significant entrant. 

2:35 Lingfield - 

This looks more interesting. Well, there are a few entrants who register on the Richter scale. 

Strong Power ran well in the Brocklesby Stakes when runner-up to Show Me Show Me. George Scott is one of those trainers I struggle to get to grips with on the stat front. Certainly, he has plenty of two-year-olds who disappoint at relatively short odds when making their debut. I must admit I like this son of Kodiac. He did nothing wrong at Newmarket if not going a fraction too fast but he was simply trying to make his experience count and it was nearly the case. Touching big odds-on in running, few would have believed he would have been out of the frame. It looked a decent race. I can imagine connections trying to lead all the way here. I thought at first glance this was on the all-weather, which, in my opinion, would have been a very good move. The horse to beat but there's always the worry someone will spoil the party. 

Archie Watson's Illusionist doesn't have any significant entries at present but is in a betting guide which suggests this Irish-bred son of Hot Streak could be a live opponent. 

Interesting to see how John Ryan's Sea Of Cool goes here. Silvestre De Silva has been booked and it is noteworthy this son of Sea The Stars was given a class 2 stakes entry. Most of his entered juvenile go on to win at two, which brings some interest. The downside is that very few of his two-year-olds win on debut. Could be a horse to keep an eye on the next two starts.  

Thursday, 2 May 2019

Thursday's 2yo Update (2nd May)

I'm writing this post just after sending out our first Mailing of the year. 

It's like slow motion, or it may seem that way if you are waiting for valued information. Behind the scenes, I am about the busiest person you are likely to meet with what often feels like a neverending list of things to do. 

There should never be any rush early season. Even the most dedicated trainers need time to assess their two-year-olds. 

You will notice on the mailing I detail Clive Cox's Firepower (4:55 Salisbury). It is a short price and I had second thoughts about even bothering to send it to be fair. If it wins, people think so what. If it loses they think whose this idiot who sends out favourites. Makes me smile thinking about it. Time will tell. Even if horses disappoint on debut they usually show their worth. 

There are 3 two-year-old races for Thursday. 

Interestingly, one is a Selling Stakes (1:55 Redcar). I can hear a few people thinking: what's so interesting about that. 

Understanding the best horses also means noting the worst. Those running or which were entered to run in the race are likely to be poor or limited juveniles. It is worth keeping a list of these horses who are entered to run at plating class, especially if they are debutantes from larger stables. Why? Because they often run in a maiden or stakes and because they are from an influential stable they are generally priced at short odds. They usually drift to the extreme in the betting and have little chance of winning. As with all thoughts, there are exceptions to the rule. Over the years, I have seen a few horses win at Selling grade and actually contest Group races. (I don't think any won!).

Sometimes, Selling races can make very good betting mediums. I have no great thoughts about this race. 

The only other race on the cards is the 5:45 Chelmsford. 

A four-horse race. Archie Watson has started the season exceptionally well. The betting tells the story for most, although with his success most will be priced up with little value to spare (perhaps). I have run a few studies on this trainer and he has very good stats with his debutantes priced 11/4 and less SP. 

Early season, I use a combination of information to help me make betting selections. You know, a month has passed and I have placed three bets. The first a stat bet which didn't hit the frame. A late bet on David Evans Good Vibes at Salisbury, when overpowering Archie Watson's Exclusively (who would have won without a penalty). I only bet late because she drifted to a decent price on Betfair. A lovely, big, strong filly. Then, this evening (Wednesday) I had an each-way bet on Clive Cox's Royal Ambition (5:25 Bath) only to see the beast lose third place on the nod. 

I would be very careful betting early season. Although if you know better (which you may) fill your boots. 

Thanks for your support. 

Wednesday, 1 May 2019

Wednesday's 2yo Update (1st May)

Not a great deal of time, so I will try to keep this brief. 2:15 Ascot - Four two-year-old races including the Class 2 Stakes at Ascot. Interesting to see how Lady Pauline goes after her scintillating win at Keeneland on debut in America. This looks an intriguing contest. 

2:25 Pontefract - 

Just two significantly-entered juveniles competing. Xcelente ran well on debut at Thirsk. The form of that race has been franked. A win penalty makes life a little harder but the type of horse to progress. 

The only other horse with an entry is Barry Magoo, trained by Adam West. This bay colt was entered to run in the Brocklesby but made his debut at Newbury, which turned out to be a hot contest. I think, in ways, the stable half fancied this January foal to run a race. He showed bright speed but tired in the final furlong and slightly eased. He kept upsides a few without being pushed so there may be an element of ability. With Toby Eley taking 7lb off this horse's back, he could show pace. 

Not the easiest horse to assess and it would take a leap of faith to win but there may be an opportunity to lay your stake in-running and have a free bet (then pray). 

A couple of form horses will come here with a chance. Kidda was priced to go well on debut but a slow start messed up his chance. Should go much better here. Also, II Maestro wasn't best away and not given a hard time to run on with some promise. A compact if not small horse but attractive. Both were behind Excelente but they aren't without some hope of reversing the form when the said named has a penalty and these pair look to improve a good deal. All in all, it looks a race with a few twists and turns and it will be helpful to assess the betting before getting stuck in. I will take a watching brief. 

5:10 Brighton - 

No significantly entered juveniles. 

5:25 Bath - 

Two significantly-entered juveniles. Out Of Breath has received a Class 2 entry. Looked to have no chance on debut but ran on well to take second place. Was sent off a favourite at Brighton but always on the back foot and a touch outpaced. Just never getting involved behind Paul Cole's winner. The second has disappointed since. Out Of Breath didn't look suited by the course and his legs were all over the place. I imagine Osborne was expecting better. This course is often ideal for speedy horses. I just wonder if Out Of Breath will be outpaced and may need a test of stamina or even better ground. A puzzler. I would have to watch and see what happens today.

Bartat holds an entry but didn't get do much on debut. Mick Channon's charge was blown away on her second start in a very hot race at Newmarket. Probably capable of better but needs something of a transformation.

Tuesday, 30 April 2019

Tuesday's 2YO Update (30th April)

2yo horse racing (Group Horse)
Monday detailed a couple of debut winners. 

Strive For Glory won on the line for Robert Cowell. It looked a poor race with the second favourite a non-runner and odds-on favourite stuck behind a wall of horses. It's all good for Group Horse but I must admit I didn't fancy the horse to win as the trainer has a poor strike rate with debutantes. I feel it won by circumstance. However, most winners are about circumstance. 

At Windsor, Emten won well for Jamie Osborne and the Melbourne 10 Racing syndicate. There is little doubt the stable fancied this two-year-old to go well. The betting was a little misleading as this good-looking filly was on the edge of a betting guide which suggested a big run. She won pretty easily. It's a good sign when Osbourne's juveniles win on debut and I can imagine she will be heading to Royal Ascot. 


Three two-year-old races on the day. Just a quick look to detail the significantly entered juveniles. 

1:30 Nottingham - 

Just the sole significant entry going. Richard Hannon's two-year-olds are never the easiest to assess and a few fancied of late have looked in need of the experience. Beignet is quite a well-bred filly being sired by Canford Cliffs and out of a decent mare in Cake, who did well for the stable winning on her first two starts and far from disgraced when fifth in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) beaten less than two lengths. Beignet ran well on debut at Brighton, but couldn't hold the late charge of Paul Cole's winner. This drop back to 5f will help and that race brings valuable experience. Cole's victor is probably a fair juvenile with size and scope so I can see the form of the first two holding up. A few debutantes are in opposition, and if they are fancied in the betting could, from a statistical point of view, put down a challenge. I would take a watching brief but expect Beignet to run a sound race. 

2:25 Brighton - 

Another Hannon two-year-old with form. Audio is the only significantly-entered juvenile in this race. This son of Equiano cost 24,000 guineas at the yearling sales. His debut effort was difficult to assess in ways. Electric Ladyland won carrying a penalty, while Saeed bin Suroor's favourite Dark Of Night fluffed his lines with a slow start. Audio wasn't overly fancied in the betting, which may suggest he was in need of the run. Also, he was racing wide for the whole trip which couldn't have helped his cause. Audio should go well in this restricted race type although it is difficult to assess that first start. 

2:45 Yarmouth - 

A couple of significantly-entered juveniles here. Mark Johnston's Don't Joke is expected to improve for his first start. He was fancied to go well on debut at Bath but could never get to grips with the pace of Zulu Zander, who was carrying a penalty, for an easy win at Leicester the time before. It was a fair debut if not a little bit tricky to assess. I imagine the experience will be a plus and this better ground may be more to his liking. 

The other entered juveniles is Robert Cowell's Taste The Nectar. The stable had a winner on Monday when Strive For Glory won at Newcastle. This American-bred daughter of More Than Ready cost $65,000 when purchased at the Keeneland yearling sales. It is positive that this filly holds an entry of some note. However, the stable have a poor strike rate with their two-year-old debutantes which doesn't bolster confidence. I would have to take a watching brief of this filly but hope she goes well. 

Jeremy Noseda's Fleeting Princess doesn't have any entries at this time but could prove the biggest danger. If priced 11/4 and less SP could take some beating.