Friday, 20 April 2018

Friday's Racing Update

Not a great deal of time, so I will try to keep this to the basics. 

1:50 Newbury - 

A race which often pinpoints a few early season winners. Not too much to chat about with regard to significant entries. Sylvester Kirk's Wolstonbury received a Class 2 entry, which is a sign of interest. It is worth noting this son of Koidiac's price went from 40,000 Euros to 8,000G in a couple of months, which brings about some concerns. Best watched. 

The betting suggests Richard Hannon's Well Done Fox has strong claims. I see he cost 225,000G at the yearling sales.  

5:10 Bath - 

Quite a big field of twelve runners for this Median Auction Stakes. It isn't the most restricted race.

Entrants include: Kinks ran well on debut when losing by a head to Lihou, who ran respectably in the Brocklesby Stakes.   
  
Steph Holinshead doesn't have many two-year-olds are horsed in the stable. Tiwwotitiz ran on in seventh place, prominent then dropped out. Needs more. 

Wednesday, 18 April 2018

5:45 Kempton Racing Tips (18th April)

Bill Turner Arthur's Spirit
A Novice Auction Stakes over 5f on Standard going. 

Quite a restricted race type which favours form horses. Jungle Inthebungle was noted by us on debut and hung on by a short head from Lady Prancealot who won in ready fashion on her second start. Kingi Compton ran well enough in fourth place. Mick Channon's winner has to carry a win penalty but that is negated in some respects by the apprentice jockey. 

Geography Teacher ran in the Brocklesby Stakes, which gives some interest. This daughter of Bungle Inthejungle was well backed that day but showed little. The only hope would be that she struggled on the soft ground, injured or needed the run. Roger Fell isn't the first trainer to come to mind with two-year-olds but today should show what she is all about. Interesting if backed, as it would give a little more confidence. I would take a watching brief. 

Bill Turner sent Arthur's Spirit to contest the Brocklesby, as race he often sends his best two-year-old. He was kind of fancied in the betting but faded and beaten a long way by the time he got to the finishing line. However, there was money for his second start at Southwell and proved that first run was all wrong. He touched big odds on at Southwell before being reeled in by Richard Faheys Mr Buttons. This colt has fair pace - if last time is to be believed - and from a low draw is likely to lead. The apprentice remains, taking off a handy 7lb. Slightly difficult to assess the merit of the form on that last start as two horses left the others standing and they didn't look too good. Should give a bold show. 

Dancing On A Dream is trained by Mark Johnston but didn't cost a great deal. Always a trainer to be respected. This horse has no significant entries at this time and simply mentioned for reference. 

Conclusion: Disappointing there are just two places for each way betting as Arthur's Spirit may have claims. I can imagine connections trying to lead and if betting it may be wise to lay in running at short odds just in case he is collared late on. Jungle Inthebungle ran well to win on debut and looks professional. I would take a watching brief. 

3:00 Newmarket Racing Tips (18th April)

Hussain Alabbas Lootah
Just a quick note for this EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 5f on good to soft going.  

The betting suggests four horses are of interest. As far as Group Horse goes, the only one of interest is Mark Johnston's Hard Forest. This American-bred daughter of Hard Spun cost 50,000G at the yearling sales. She was made favourite on debut at Newcastle, when starting 2/1f. She ran a sterling races until outpointed by Snazzy, who looks a fair juvenile for Charlie Fellows, in the silks of Highclere Throughbreds Ltd. The fifth, Deia Glory, ran with credit on her second start. 

The Newcastle race was Class 2 and win prize money of £12,000+. That indicates the race was better than average. Hard Spun will be ready to roll and should make the most of her experience. I'm not suggesting you go out and bet at 9/4 but if the Appleby or Haggas horses are seriously backed there may be some value in betting each way or part of an each way double if you have something you fancy.  

Saturday, 14 April 2018

7:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (14th April)

As Cecil Gaybody once said in the film Carry On Girls: ''Bring on the girls!''

Well, to be precise, fillies of the equine version. 

An EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 21y on Standard going. This Class 5 2yo race has a field of ten juveniles, three with racecourse experience.  

Penniesfromheaven ran well on debut for Dean Ivory. This daughter Lethal Force is quite lightly built and looked very inexperienced on debut at Lingfield. She ran on pretty well when slightly awkward on the bend, running on into third behind Jungle Inthebungle and Lady Prancealot who won readily on her second start. Penniesfromheaven had been entered for a Class 2 Stakes race which adds to confidence. Well drawn in stall two may well encourage connections to lead. 

Mick Channon has been in great form with his two-year-olds this season. He mentioned they are gone back to buying typical speedy types and Izzer has already won twice. Those form lines help with assessment which is a big advantage. Knockabout Queen races in the familiar silks of Box 41 Racing syndicate. This bay daughter of Sixties Icon is a home bred. The betting is the best guide. If priced 8/1 & less SP has fair each way claims especially if backed. I would take a watching brief if weak in the market. 

Interesting to see Tom Dascombe field two fillies here to start his two-year-old campaign. Sesame looks to be the first string racing in the familiar silks of Laurence Bellman & Caroline Ingram. This daughter of Slade Power and cost 52,000 euros at the yearling sales. The eleven draw is a difficult starting point as you don't want to be slow away or pushed wide on the bend. If priced 13/2 & less SP it suggests something is expected. I would let the betting settle before getting involved just in case the draw is too much of a negative. 

The stable is represented by Polished owned by John Dance who had some nice successes with juveniles last season. This daughter of Helmet cost 41,000 euros. Another with a relatively high draw. Unless seriously backed, best watched. 

David Evans has started this juvenile season with plenty of runners and at east two winners. He is worth noting early season. The Welsh wizard has three two-year-olds entered here: Kg Courage (once raced), Go Annie Go & Frisky Dancer. 

Kg Courage wasn't fancied in the betting on debut and finished last behind Jungle Inthebungle. On form, Penniesfromheaven has a decisive advantage. Two-year-olds shouldn't be limited by one run although much more is needed. The stable can spring surprises in the betting so it is worth noting the betting. 

Go Annie Go is well drawn and worth noting in the betting. 

Frisky Dancer is the biggest of Evans in the betting at the time of writing [14/1] and daughter of Zoffany. Money is the keyword with this stable and the shortest of the three is likely to go best. 

Scott Dixon didn't have the best of two-year-old campaigns last year but a trainer who can pop up with a decent horse. Deia Glory is a bay daughter of Kyllachy out of a twice-winning mare. A 32,000G yearling purchase. She was priced 50/1 on debut and showed good pace early door before being outpaced into fifth but beaten just under four lengths. This was a Class 2 Novice Stakes with prize money of over £12,000+ to the winner. Time may tell that was a decent race. Not the easiest horse to assess because she may need to run to the line. However, if slightly in need for the run that day, could be there especially from stall one. Looks a likely lead. 

Henry Spiller's Daphinia and cheap yearling purchase at £8,000. 

One trainer who excelled last year was Archie Stevens. He can prime a debutante so it will be interesting to see how Cloud Seeding goes. This British-bred filly is a daughter of Gale Force Ten. This £31,000 yearling purchase has a wide draw in stall ten which is far from ideal. The hood has been applied. Interesting whether this is to calm or encourage. The betting at 7/1 suggests something is expected. I would let the betting settle just in case it drifts. 

Conclusion:  A large field of fillies. The betting looks pretty open so the bookies will be careful. It may well be wise to let the betting settle unless you have a strong opinion. Certainly, the form horses have the benefit of experience which counts for a lot. Penniesfromheaven and Deia Glory fit that category and well drawn. They could be sent to the front. Both have either run or been entered for Class 2 races which indicates the trainers have some hope for these juveniles. Penniesfromheaven has shown a bit of form and gave the impression better would be seen next start. The slight negative is that she was very inexperienced that day and could be the same today. A low draw could be a blessing or a problem if slow away. She isn't the strongest looking horse but against fillies shouldn't look out of place. Deia Glory may have the best form and if improving for the run could go well. Both have an equal measure of good and bad. I would take a watching brief. The betting is the best guide for Knockabout Queen, Sesame and Cloud Seeding. If priced 7/1 & less SP could go well. The latter two have to defy a bad draw which doesn't inspire. I would have to take a watching brief because this looks a tricky affair. 

Thursday, 12 April 2018

Reinforcement of Discipline

Finding winners is all about reinforcement of discipline.

I know what you are thinking - surely it is all about finding winners. In many ways that is true. However, what comes before winning? Look back, further than that, back some more, and see the foundation of your knowledge, underlying principles, structure and process of reinforcement.

The wise man built his house upon the rocks. To appreciate the truth of winning at horse racing you need to realise the foundation of your knowledge is as important as picking those winners. 

Bad habits are the reason why most punters fail. A poor basis for reason. It is surprising how few people actually learn from their years of betting. It is strange because you wouldn't go to college to sit in the same class for years.It is like studying O'level math and never progress beyond the basics. You keep going back to the lesson without even questioning you are treading water. 

There is no logic. 

So how do you start to win? 

Learn slowly with some basis to your understanding. You need to have a niche. Why? Because you can't know it all. Contestants on Mastermind have a chosen subject for a reason. Try asking a painter and decorator to change a car engine. 

You learn true knowledge by experience, trial and error. But you learn by assessment. You need to question your progress and realise it will take time. Of course it will take time. You don't just wake up one morning to find you are a professional gambler. What is your job? Think back to the first day. You didn't know much hey? Slow as a snail, clumsy, and making hard work of everything. But you found the answers and built on that foundation. You're bloody good at what you do. It didn't come easy and you respect that fact.  

However long it takes to learn how to win at horse racing it's time well spent. You don't want to battle on without progress. If your results tell you nothing has changed then stop. Appreciate what you understand has worth. Something that makes you a return. Work to find more of the same by reinforcing such a winning discipline. Use these guidelines to help you structure your approach and take small steps so you don't lose confidence in what you have. You are polishing the stone to make it shine, not knocking off the edges. 

In ways all these words may seem like mumbo jumbo. What's he rattling on about? It is real. Without foundation, your ''knowledge'' is fluid, moving with the ebb and flow of many variables, especially your emotions.

Without a foundation to your knowledge, skills, ability to find winners you have nothing to hold firm or progress. 

5:45 Chelmsford (12th April) Harperelle for Karl Burke

Karl Burke
A Fillies Novice Auction Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f on Standard going. 

Seven two-year-olds takes part: three with race experience and a quartet of newbies. 

These restricted race types often go to form horses of which a couple here have shown ability on their racecourse bow. 

Karl Burke is a trainer worthy of note, especially with two-year-olds on their second start. *Harperelle didn't seem to be fancied on debut at Newcastle, starting at odds of 16/1. In truth, there was a little bit of money for this daughter of Burwaaz who opened at 20/1. This chestnut filly looks an inspired yearling purchased at £4,800. Her debut was made in a Class 2 race worth over £12,000, which suggests it was a better race than not. By all accounts, this is a drop in class. From a statistical point of view, Harperelle has very good claims. 

There could be opposition with Lady Prancealot, trained by David Evans. He has started this two-year-old season with some fire. This bay daughter of Sir Prancealot cost just 9,500 euros at the yearling sales. A couple of bargain buys if I have ever seen them. This February foal made her debut at Lingfield at Auction level. She was just held by a short head, runner-up to Mick Channon's Jungle Inthebungle who started at 6/4f. Certainly, Channon's winner is held is some regard. David Evans has a decent string of juveniles and he doesn't let the grass grow under his feet. A wide draw is a slight negative. Interesting to see how these two fair in the betting. 

Evans is also represented by Blasim. This daughter of Kodiac cost 16,000 euros. Looks to be second string. Unless seriously backed, best watched.  

The other juvenile with racecourse experience is Dean Ivory's Sandy Heartbeat. This daughter of Compton Place cost just £7,000 at the yearling sales. Owners, It's Your Lucky Day, will be hoping for more after their filly finish 7th in the same race as Lady Prancealot. Never competitive, and needing to find more. 

The best of the unraced horses is Piccothepack. This daughter of Piccolo cost £4,500 at the yearling sales. Richard Fahey has started the season well with one juvenile success in Mr Buttons. He is a trainer who can hot the mark with debutantes. Interesting to see Silvestre De Sousa booked to ride. To be fair, this March foal will need to be pretty smart to beat the two leading lights here. 

Ron Harris is a capable trainer. A few of his horses have run well on debut although most are limited. Thegraveytrain cost £3,500 at the yearling sales. Best watched.

Daniel Kubler can spring a surprise, especially with horses owned by Mr & Mrs G Middlebrook. Chitra is a daughter of Sea The Moon. This home bred went through the sales for 10,000G. Would bring more confidence if backed. 

Conclusion: A restricted race type and selection of cheap purchases. These race types usually go to form horses. I would be surprised if this didn't go to Harperelle or Lady Prancealot. Both ran fine races on debut. The former is likely to be odds-on, which doesn't offer much value.  

* NR: Harperelle 

Tuesday, 10 April 2018

Watch 2YO Race Replays for Free (RACING UK | AT THE RACES)

Always here to help our readers - so we've added this handy page: 2YO Race Replays (FREE). Ideal for those who love to watch past 2yo race reviews. All you need is a Sky Bet account, which you can open for a couple of pounds. Simply log on and you can click on the race replay link and watch at your leisure. 


2YO RACE REPLAYS HERE Or click on the page via the icon on the right. 

I will do my best to update on a daily basis. However, I hope people share this website and information because if not I doubt I will be motivated to spend time helping people who cannot do the same in return. We can all take (give a little). 

So share and keep the ball rolling. 

Appreciated.

Sunday, 8 April 2018

5 Helpful Pointers to Win at the Races

With the changing of the clocks, thoughts of heady summer days may invite you to a day at the races. The beauty of living on such a small island is that you are never far from a racecourse. In fact, many locations have a number on their doorstep. Whether travelling to Market Rasen on a cold, winter's day or the pomp and glamour of Royal Ascot, there's plenty to cheer about. 

When it comes to betting, you may need little advice or a newbie who could do with a few helpful tips. 

Take a look at these 5 handy pointers to help you win when betting on two-year-old horses. 

1) Follow successful trainers 

When betting on two-year-old horses, it is important to appreciate which trainers can win a race. Sadly, for many this is far from an easy task and why it often pays to follow established horse trainers with owners who pay a lot of money for their colt or filly. A race may detail a varied mix of sales prices. Often, a horse is very expensive and costing £1,000,000 while another cost just the paltry sum of £500. It is no surprise to see the more expensive horse is much more fancied in the betting. 

2) Watching horses in the paddock

It's worth visiting the paddock to see the two-year-old horses before they go down to the start. Many horses will be racing for their first time which can be a scary prospect. Horses can get upset and throw away their chance before the race begins. Take note of the horse you fancy. If it looks very hot and sweaty, rearing up or unseating its jockey, you may be wise to change your opinion. This isn't a foolproof system because some horses behave terribly and still win. 

3) Betting

As the maxim goes: Bet what you can afford to lose. It is a good measure of having an enjoyable day at the races. You don't want to leave feeling angry about losing too much money. When betting on two-year-old horses remember it is more difficult for a horse to win on debut compared to their second start. Also, most winning horses are priced 13/2 & less SP. This doesn't mean that bigger priced horses can't win but it is much more difficult. 

4) When to bet

In truth, there is no right or wrong time to bet. However, there may be a big difference between the odds you get. Betting is all about opinions. If you want to bet on a favourite or big price don't be swayed by others and change your mind. The betting market really heats up in the last ten minutes before the off so this is the time you will notice your horse is either backed or drifts in the market. Stick to your guns. 

5) Which bet: single, each-way or accumulator

If you want to keep it simple just go for a single win bet. If your horse is priced 5/1 or bigger you may consider betting each-way. That means you don't lose if it is placed in the first three horse (must be eight runners or more). This can be a worthwhile bet. However, you may be better off with two single bets in the same race. More information about types of bet If you hope to win a lot of money betting for a small stake you will need to wager on an accumulator. This is where you place a bet on a number of horses. Bets such as a Yankee, Canadian or Heinz come to mind. 

Have an enjoyable day.

Saturday, 7 April 2018

1:30 Kempton Racing Tips (7th April)

An EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f on Standard going.

Ten two-year-olds take apart. Eight colts, two fillies, four horses with one race to their name.

The tissue prices indicate bookmakers are being careful, which isn't a bad idea at this time of year. 

The 3 better form horses have valuable experience.  

Lihou and Gingersdunthelot made their racecourse bow in the Brocklesby Stakes. The former, trained by David Evans, is a compact son of Mayson who wasn't best away from the stalls but progressed nicely losing by two lengths. This was a professional performance. He looks the type to enjoy this faster surface and most likely use that experience to sit handy. The winner of the Brocklesby, Izzer, has won again under a penalty which suggests the form is fair although, still, difficult to assess at this time. 

Evans is represented by Disruptor who is well drawn in stall 2. This French-bred son of Siyouni cost £52,000 at the yearling sales. Interesting to note this youngster was entered for a Class 2 Stakes. Lihou looks the first string but it wouldn't be a surprise to see this January foal show ability. If significantly backed, it would be a positive.   

Gingersdunthelot was backed from big prices and showed pace until tiring into ninth place. 

The ground at Doncaster was testing which makes assessment very difficult because if better ground is needed there could be improvement. 

The other form horse, John Betjeman, hails from Bill Turner's stable who has shown his worth with this juvenile and Arthur's Spirit who ran terrible in the Brocklesby but ran well when returning to Southwell a different horse. John Betjeman was beaten one length by Izzer, when contesting a Class 2 Stakes race at Bath. The ground that day was horrendous and the 5f race was over 10 seconds slow. Turner's charge was priced 25/1 but belied those odds. This son of Poet's Voice led and lost a little bit of ground when wandering on the dog leg bend before rallying in the closing stages. By all accounts, it was a decent debut. On form lines with Lihou, there wouldn't be a great deal between them. One thing you can say, is that John Betjeman will run to the line because that debut was akin to 6f. 

Richard Hannon's Dixieland was entered to run at Bath but withdrawn due to the going and makes a return here. It is a positive this son of Red Jazz was entered for that Class 2 race worth £12,000+ to the winner. A fair draw in stall 5. He was fancied in the betting at Bath and gives the impression connections fancy this horse to run a race.

Mick Channon has done well with his two-year-olds this season with Izzer scoring twice and Jungle Inthebungle winning on debut too. The stable have detailed they have a decent string which is proven to a point by these early victors. Kinks is a son of Sixties Icon and relatively inexpensive yearling purchase at 14,000 euros. This March foal is not best drawn in stall eight. The betting is the best guide. It is a positive to note he was entered for a Class 2 Stakes race. With decent form horses in the stable, the betting will tell the story. If strongly fancied I would expect a show. Conversely, weak in the market would be a negative. Remember, very few of the debutantes win when priced over 8/1.   

Robert Cowell's Sir Ox is an American-bred son of Oxbow. Racing in the familiar silks of Khalifa Dasmal this juvenile was purchase by the trainer at the Keeneland sales for $215,000. The mare raced once at Grade 1 class when second at Hollywood Park. The betting suggests this horse isn't overly fancied - perhaps needing a greater test of stamina. The stable had a decent performance by Vikivaki when contesting a Newcastle Stakes race. A wide draw isn't ideal. If backed it would give more confidence. 

Archie Watson proved a star trainer last year with the likes of Corinthia Knight, Yabass, Ghost Serge and So Hi Society. Luchador is an Irish-bred daughter of Holy Roman Emperor. This home bred races in the familiar silks of Al Asayl Bloodstock Ltd. A prime draw in stall 1 can be a blessing or a curse. The betting is the best guide.   

Arbuckle & Vena D'Amour are best watched.   

Conclusion: An intriguing race with a mix of form horses and few with fair entries which suggest they have some merit. Lihou and John Betjeman have shown ability and professionalism. Experience goes a long way at this time of year, especially on a turning course which can prove an obstacle. I can see both horses running well. Dixieland was fancied in the betting when withdrawn at Bath, so it is fair to expect a horse with some ability. The betting should tell the story for Kinks and Luchador. The former hails from Mick Channon's stable who has won three of the early two-year-old races. He has a good measure of these and Kinks was entered to run at Class 2 which suggests they feel this colt has ability. Disruptor is another horses to hold a similar entry. David Evans can be a tricky customer and the stable are not against pulling off a surprise. If backed, it would be worthy of note. Sir Ox looks weak in the early tissue prices but a well-bred two-year-old and a costly purchase at $215,000. A wide draw is far from ideal. However, money for this colt would bring more confidence. The betting is a good guide to the debutantes who will need to be pretty smart to beat the form horses who have experience and decent draws. A turning course favours form horses. I would take a watching brief.  

This website should cost £500 for annual subscription. Giving true value. 

Wednesday, 4 April 2018

Just too Generous

We are full of surprises. 

Our information is all about giving value. 

I like to do my best for readers and this is a true of our generosity. For this new Flat season 2018 - 2019 I am giving free subscription to Group Horse. All those who have made subscription, please cancel via Paypal because it is free for this year until April 2019.

All the best,
Jason  

Tuesday, 3 April 2018

2:55 Lingfield Racing Tips (3rd April)

Best Company racing in the K T Ivory silks
A Novice Median Auction Stakes over 5f 6y on Standard going. 

Eight debutantes take part: three colts and five fillies. This race type (class 5) details that most two-year-olds were relatively cheap purchases at the sales. 

Not the easiest race to assess so I will just highlight a few which have been given significant entries. 

Gay Kelleway's Induct was earmarked for the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. This son of Pastoral Pursuits cost £5000 at the yearling sales. 

Mick Channon has done well this early season with Izzer winning the Brocklesby and a Class 2 Stakes race at Bath. Jungle Inthebungle was entered for a Class 2 Stakes which gives some hope. The stable have indicated they have a decent string of juveniles. 

Similarly, Dean Ivory's Penniesfromheaven had been entered for one of those two £12,000 races (Bath or Newcastle). This daughter of Lethal Force runs in the colours of his father, K T Ivory. The mare won on debut. Penniesfromheaven cost £17,000 when purchased from the yearling sales by the handler. 

A watching brief.