Very busy until I get home on Friday, so I must apologise for the posts on the day rather than the night before.
Let's a have a look at today's significant entrants.
1:30 Ayr -
Charlie Hills has Dark Jedi going here. This son of Kodiac won by a nose on debut and then runner-up at Listed class. Has to defy a win penalty.
Takumi wasn't fancied on debut and was never involved. A similar price second start where he ran on in the closing stages to gain third place.
Note: Reason why it pays to check yourself (thanks, Craig). I missed that Kevin Ryan's George Mallory has been noted by connections. Ran well on debut in the Convivial Maiden Stakes. Must have each-way claims.
It is worth noting it is testing ground which may help or hinder.
2:10 Pontefract -
Karl Burke has a good team. Serengeti Song has been noted by the trainer. This bay colt has run creditably on both starts and made favourite to take the spoils. The stable do well at this course.
2:20 Yarmouth -
William Haggas' Boerhan displayed inexperience on debut but managed to join the leader on the post to a dead heat. This Irish-bred son of Sea The Stars was a costly purchase at 270,000 guineas. Not seen for over one month, this extra furlong will help. Once again, we see a horse trying to defy a win penalty at odds-on.
2:50 Yarmouth -
William Haggas has another potentially smart two-year-old heading to the coast with Hidden Message. This daughter of Scat Daddy races in the familiar silks of Qatar Racing Ltd. She cost $150,000 at the yearling sales. A recent non-runner at Haydock due to the unsuitable ground. Debutantes can be tricky to assess although this filly is in Haggas' best betting guide.
King's Girl has been noted by Sir Michael Stoute although not one of the major players in the stable. The form of her debut at Newmarket looks decent enough although run off her feet at Brighton. This extra half furlong should help.
Just a quick update as I am at Great Yarmouth's Eastern Festival. From West Palm Beach via London to the Norfolk coast. Hence, the late update.
I'm getting around.
1:50 Beverley -
We don't see too many significantly entered two-year-olds going for Claiming races but Gay Kelleway is taking that option with Elieden. This daughter of Camacho has an official rating of 71 which tells the story of a limited horse but one that has enough ability to win a race. She has been entered for a few race this year showing glimmers of ability. Looks like connections are dropping in class to gain that first elusive win.
2:10 Sandwon -
William Haggas has a decent string of juveniles and Dalaalaat is making his debut today. This son of Kingman is worthy of respect.
Voltaic has run well on both starts to date and has valuable experience on side. This chestnut son of Power ran well in the Convivial Maiden Stakes at York, the one significant entry he has received. Stepping up to one mile. A decent juvenile at odds of 6/1.
Conclusion: Just the two significant entrants here. Paul Cole's Voltaic could well hit the frame at each way odds. Dalaalaat is in one of Haggas' best betting guides which give hope but will need to be a fair talent to win on debut.
2:20 Beverley -
Air Force Amy ran well on debut in a competitive race. Looks to hold fair each-way claims.
2:30 Yarmouth -
Big old fields.
Saeed bin Suroor has definitely achieved more this two-year-old season. It makes a change after being given the lesser lights for far too long. Royal Meeting is fancied to go well here after a recent Class 2 entry. Not the easiest horse to assess.
Charlie Appleby has given Aquanura similar entry. He has run well on both starts to date and sets a decent standard.
Other significant entrants include Alrajaa. Fancied on both starts to date and beaten favourite at Sandown when fading tamely in the final furlong. I can imagine connections were a little disappointed with that effort.
Clipper Logistics is no stranger to decent two-year-olds and Victory Day makes his debut for William Haggas. This son of Bated Breath cost £270,000 at the yearling sales. Interesting that he received a Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) entry some time back but no other entries since. It may indicate he had a set back at some point. Haggas does well at this course. I would prefer To see this youngster priced 13/2 & less SP to hold best chances but not without a hope.
Conclusion: Looks like a four-horse race on betting. Not the easiest of races to assess. The two debutantes [Royal Meeting & Victory Day] will need to be pretty smart on debut to beat the form horses although they may not have lived up to expectation. I would have to take a watching brief.
2:40 Sandown -
Good Fortune is a very well entered horse for Charlie Appleby.
Harry Dunlop has only one horse significantly entered and that is Goldino Bello.
2:50 Beverley -
Rock Up In Style has received a Class 2 Stakes entry
3:00 Yarmouth -
Sir Michael Stoute has noted Sovereign Grant. He ran well on debut when running on in the closing stages, giving the impression the race was needed. Almost three weeks off course, and sure to be fitter this time around.
The only other entrant noted by the trainer is David Simcock's Wiretap. Not the easiest of horses to assess and a horse who gives the impression has had a few issues along the way, which isn't ideal. Was fancied on debut at Yarmouth but easily beaten. However, the form of that race has turned out to be very good. Doesn't look fancied in the betting. If seriously backed to 13/2 & less SP would have much better claims. Keep an eye on the betting.
4:00 Beverley -
Summer Blossom has been consistent and looking for this filly.
Sabai Sabai has been noted by Ralph Beckett but has been disappointing of late.
A quiet couple of days. Let's see what we have going on today.
2:00 Lingfield -
Mark Johnston's French Twist has been noted for a recent Listed race. Ran fair on both starts to date and stepping up in trip. Interesting to see how this one goes at 12/1.
2:10 Redcar -
Karl Burke has his team in good order and Harperelle ran well after a lengthy absence in second place to Blame Roberta who went on to win next start. This a restricted race type and this daughter of Burwaaz has set a decent level for this grade.
Usain Boat hasn't been seen for about three months. This gelding has always been well regarded in the stable winning second start and a distant second in the Woodcote Stakes. Disappointed at Hamilton on testing going. These win penalties take some defying. A slight concern about being off course for such a long time. I would keep an eye on the betting. If strongly fancied would give greater hope but it would have to be a watching brief.
Big Ace is a fair juvenile and kept busy with nine starts to date. One win and runner-up on three starts. Once again, has to defy a win penalty.
Conclusion: Harperelle is in good form and her form is decent for this grade. Ran a solid race against Blame Roberta. Should take the beating but little value around even money. Usain Boat is a capable horse at best but that last run was disappointing and after being off course for such a long time you have to worry about issues or coming back unfit. Big Ace is fair but like Usain Boat has to defy a win penalty, which is easy.
No two-year-olds of significance.
No horses of significance.
Very busy so this will be kept to names:
1:30 Chester -
Entrants: Axel Jacklin.
1:40 Chelmsford -
Entrants: Daphinia.
2:00 Bath -
Entrants: Al Wafi.
2:30 Lingfield -
Entrants: Layaleena.
2:55 Musselburgh -
Entrants: Implicit, Blame Robert.
2:00 Chester -
Andrew Balding does well at Chester and always worth noting when in the ownership of J C Smith. Indomitable is a bay colt who has been beaten narrowly in both starts to date. His latest start, finishing second in the Convivial Maiden Stakes, was a great result and worthy favourite for connections.
3:25 Sandown -
Quite an interesting race.
Ed Dunlop doesn't have that decent string of juveniles but Venedgar is a consistent horse who has achieved an official rating of 83. This determined son of Dubawi has been beaten by a couple of smart Gosden two-year-olds.
John Gosden may be a thorn in Venedgar's side because of Kosciusko has been noted by connections.
Wojood is interesting. Hugo Palmer's charge is one of few two-year-olds to gain a significant entry but disappointed almost a month ago. Something went amiss at Newmarket. Could go well at odds of 22/1. At that price, is worthy as a speculative each-way wager.
Note: Wojood was a big price and too keen. I don't think connections was too concerned with disappointing today and if getting a low handicap mark will be winning. This horse needs to kerb its temperament but that should happen sooner rather than later.
4:00 Salisbury -
Simon Crisford's Jash won well on debut. This son of Kodiac was well backed and cruised to a four-and-a-half length victory. The form of that race has been franked. This smart prospect was meant to race at this course but it was abandoned due to a chaffer grub infestation. Has to defy a win penalty which makes life harder.
4:35 Salisbury -
Hugo Palmer has Red October going here. This son of Dawn Approach cost 50,000 guineas at the yearling sales. Palmer can go well with his debutantes and should run a race.
4:40 Doncaster -
Saeeb bin Suroor has done better this season than last. He is still rather hit and miss and something of a poor relation to Charlie Appleby. However, Royal Marine may be worth a second glance. This home-bred son of Raven's Pass was fancied on debut at Newmarket but looks to have disappointed behind Jash who is decent two-year-old. Royal Marine looks one of the better-entered juveniles and has win and place claims at 6/1.
Note: Once again proved correct. Royal Marine detailed on one of our two 10 Dark Horse mailing lists. Failed on debut - wins easily the second start after drifting markedly in the betting. It doesn't get any better than this. Group Horse Knows!
Ralph Beckett has been going well of late with a couple of winners and debutants who have shown ability [Fragrant Bell & Sam Cook]. James Park Wood is intriguing. Beckett can win on debut and this son of Australia who cost 190,000 guineas has received a significant entry. The way his debutantes have gone of late could well hit the frame.
Just a quick update as I am travelling home from sunny West Palm Beach, Florida.
3:55 Ffos -
Noted entries: Fox Fearless.
Yesterday we pointed readers in the direction of Canton Queen and Just Be Friendly.
Strange how the betting goes and the reason why you shouldn't think layers know best. Drifting in the betting from 9/1 - 16/1. She won well. Just Be Friendly is worth noting for the future. She was very well backed considering Bell's charge was 16/1 on Betfair early. Returned 6/1. Just Be Friendly ruined her chance, again, by being far too keen. Unless a horse is exceptional, it cannot pull over 7f. You will see this horse wins in the near future. If by some chance, she disappoints next start, this daughter of Toronado will be a near certainty if getting a weight for nursery class. Time will tell.
Anyway, back to Wednesday.
3:10 Carlisle -
1m (7f173y) British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (Class 4) (2yo)
Going: Heavy
Runners: 7
Firstly, it is always wise to be careful about very testing going.
Karl Burke has a decent string of two-year-olds. It helps give them a line to debutantes and Oak Park has been noted. Racing in the familiar silks of Mrs Maureen Gittins, this chestnut son of Sea The Stars is out of a debut-winning mare. She won twice in her career including Grade 3. Total prize winnings of just over £100,000. Burke can win with debutantes and this course is a real hotspot for winners. Priced at 9/4, it's difficult to assess value. A horse I respect.
Just one other entrant. Divine Gift isn't a class horse by any stretch of the imagination. Charlie Fellows hasn't had a vintage season with his juveniles. The best being Snazzy who struck early season. Divine Gift didn't show much ability on debut. However, this son of Nathaniel showed pace next start at Sandown when holding third place. There was money for him that day from very big odds on the exchanges. It was a good race and the first two are talented juveniles. I imagine connections are stepping up in distance hoping to find further improvement. If liking the heavy ground may run a race. Doesn't look to have the potential of some others but may pick up the pieces if they fail to deliver.
Conclusion: Oak Park is interesting. Burke has exceptional stats at this course and they keep winning so there is plenty of positives. You have to imagine Burke runs here because this horse can handle testing conditions. But over a mile, it will be a test. Any flaw in fitness will be magnified. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him win but I would rather watch and learn. Divine Gift may need others to falter to win. A watching race.
Note: At the end of the Flat turf season 2018 this information will cease. Group Horse is a business and we do not work for free. Our annual subscription has been lowered from £475 - £275 for a limited period. Detail your interest in this valued information by contacting jason@professionalgamblers.co.uk If numbers are positive, we will be giving two subscriptions for free. If numbers are low, this website will be kept for my private use only. You have witnessed the quality of this information. Next year, we will be giving specific tips and a guarantee that if we do not achieve a points profit for the season you will be given a full refund on your subscription. It doesn't get any better - quality, value & exceptional inside info.
Thanks for your support.
A few races today. Big fields. Potentially smart 2yos.
2:00 Catterick -
Just the sole significant entry being Beechwood Izzy. Keith Dalgliesh's charge ran at Listed class last time out but finished last of twelve. This Irish-bred daughter of Dandy Man has to defy a winner's penalty. Ran creditably first and second start.
2:10 Leicester -
A big field of sixteen two-year-olds. A number of significantly-entered juveniles. Roger Varian's Impulsion won well on debut and since contested pattern class and far from disgraced. Although shouldering a win penalty, this bay filly is a decent horse who deserves respect. By all accounts, this is a marked drop in grade.
Richard Hannon's Canton Queen ran in a competitive Stakes race at Newmarket. A number of horses have franked the form. This daughter of Shamardal cost 110,000 guineas at the yearling sales. Interesting to consider whether this filly was fit and primed on debut as she wasn't beaten far [less than five lengths]. Also, she was prominent, which can take its toll if not completely fit. Not without some hope at 12/1.
Michael Bell's two-year-olds are running well. Interesting that he has two fillies going here. Both have been identified as having ability.
Just Be Friendly wasn't too fancied on debut at Newmarket when finishing last. However, that was a tough race. In addition, this daughter of Toronado was too keen, which is a disaster over 7f. This 60,000 guineas yearling purchase is owned by Bill Gredley. Not without some hope as I'm pretty sure she is a lot better than seen. If backed it would bring more confidence.
Heartbreak Hotel is making her debut for respected owner Chris Wright. This 110,000 guineas yearling has been noted and ridden by Hayley Turner. Priced 20/1. It isn't a surprise in a competitive race. Another filly who should be considered although will have to be pretty smart to beat some of these on her racecourse bow.
Conclusion: An intriguing race. It doesn't look the easiest of affairs. Impulsion is a decent juvenile and even with a win penalty has claims. A few form horses have a chance from a statistical point of view. Also, Orchid Star, although not noted by the trainer, could go well. Canton Queen, Just Be Friendly & Heartbreak Hotel are all big prices but not without a hope. The latter will need to be very good to win this on debut but the other two have racecourse experience and that should see improvement on debut efforts. A race I would have to watch unless you fancy a speculative bet.
Salisbury - Abandoned
4:35 Salisbury -
A course which attracts plenty of smart prospects. Certainly, that is the case for Simon Crisford's Jash who won with authority on debut at Newmarket. There was a lot of money for this son of Kodiac. This bay colt has to defy a win penalty but bookmakers are fearful of that first display and priced 8/15f.
As always, there may be some opposition. Saeed bin Suroor has been better this two-year-old season than last but still rather up and down. Royal Meeting is a home-bred son of Invincible Spirit. A recent Class 2 entry gives some hope of ability.
Conclusion: The betting suggests this is a two-horse race. Jash won easily on debut and even with a penalty deserves respect. If Crisford is hoping to go for group class, this should be a stepping stone to better things. Royal Meeting is difficult to assess. Bin Suroor can ready a debutant and get a few pound from the favourite but needs to be pretty smart to lower the colours of the jolly.
4:50 Leicester -
*Al Mureib is the sole entry here.
5:05 Salisbury -
A quick rundown of the significant entrants.
William Haggas has a good string of juveniles. Hidden Message cost $150,000 at the yearling sales. This daughter of Scat Daddy races in the familiar silks of Qatar Racing Ltd. I always find Haggas slightly tricky to assess on debut. He can have winners although a few of his juveniles are better for the run. General statistics would suggest at 2/1 this filly is not great value.
Sir Michael Stoute's King's Girl has been noted. She ran okay last time out when a beaten favourite. Definitely not one of the better two-year-olds in the stable.
* NR
Three two-year-old races today.
Makes a change as there is far too much racing for my liking.
The only race with significant entries is:
6:15 Chelmsford -
6f totepool Cashback Club At totesport.com Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo)
Going: Standard
Runners: 10
Analysis:
Not bad prize money for this race at £6,081. It's perhaps a touch surprising that the favourite, Fognini, hasn't been given the nod. I guess Archie Watson is happy enough to contest these Novice Stakes for now.
We have two significantly entered juveniles here. Both look less than promising in their formative starts. However, I've seen plenty of horses look pretty mediocre before flapping those Pegasus wings.
Sir Michael Stoute noted Khafooq, although this son of Kodiac hasn't really shone so far. He isn't anywhere close to the better talents in the stable that readers have noted such as Snagarius, Laylaleena & Almania. Khafooq was a marked drifter on debut and finished last. As I have said before, very few of Stoute's debutantes win when priced over 13/2 SP. Obviously, some do but they are usually the exception to the rule and often very classy horses. I think punters gave this bay colt the benefit of the doubt when returning to Leicester. He showed pace for a few furlongs but dropped away tamely. He was given a few hefty reminders which helped for half a furlong before all was lost. It was a pretty lifeless performance to be fair. Unless he has disappointed on both starts [not impossible] improvement is needed. A low draw is a positive. I wouldn't be interested in betting.
The other juvenile noted here looks even less inspiring. However, even the best of horses can run poorly on debut. I've seen plenty finish last on debut and turn out to be very talented juveniles. It is a strange fact that when a horse finishes a disappointing last [especially when fancied in the betting] they are worth noting the second start. So who are we talking about? Shining Armor, trained by John Ryan. This bay gelding, a son of Morpheus, is out of a limited but four-times winning mare. Breeding would suggest he wants further. He cost just £16,000 at the breeze-up sales, now in the ownership of Gerry McGladery, who is a good patron to this stable. Ryan sent this horse to make his debut at Yarmouth over 5f. He showed up for a while before dropping out of contention. He wasn't fancied in the betting at 20/1. This gelding was given an entry for the Champagne Stakes (Group 2). Is that a sign of ability? Time will tell. At odds of 50/1 it is a huge price. A wide draw isn't ideal for this turning course.
Interesting.
