Readers of this website know we follow two-year-old horse racing to a point of no return.
In fact, if we stumbled upon the set of Mastermind, it would be our specialist subject.
Knowing your niche is key to being a successful gambler. It doesn't take much understanding. There simply isn't enough time or need to spread yourself too thin. And for that reason, we eat, sleep and drink 2yo horse racing. It is one of the best ways to enjoy horse racing and to find that winning edge. As I have said many times before, you don't need to be the best punter on earth, just a little better than most. You could go for a deep niche of understanding a horse, trainer or even an owner, breeder or something so obscure that you wouldn't even consider it has much to do with horse racing or winning at all.
What I am saying is don't waste your time looking at the same information as 95% of the population. Sure, it gives you insight but you will need a wealth of knowledge to use that in a way that others don't.
That is why you need to dig a little bit deeper so the 95% dwindles down to 1 or 2% and ideally less than that.
You may think that sounds like a lot of hard work. However, it isn't difficult at all.
Sure you can do it yourself.
If you wish to get the most out of your horse racing and find true meaning you will put the work in and just make it your own.
Or you follow a website like Group Horse Daily or even work with me and get your hands on the most informed insight you can find.
Sadly, I'm not giving my information away to anyone (beyond the 10 Dark Horse Mailing) because I'm too busy.
I may bang on about not giving too much away for free but I can assure you if in my position you would do the same. I don't know what you do for a living? It doesn't matter. Because at the end of the day your expertise maybe this, that or the other, but we all work to a universal time of minutes and hours. Would you give me an hour of your time for free? Well, don't expect me to do it for nothing. It will never happen and I am not the sentimental type. I have been more than giving over the years and it creates a culture of dependency and people who have one switch. In big bold letters, it reads: TAKE.
So here are a few basic pointers to help you beat the bookies.
Find your niche.
If you think you can know about everything you are either Einstein or a fool. And I would be pointing to the latter. Know less and bet more - and double your brainpower. You don't need to know everything under the sun. Use knowledge with logic and reason.
Dig Deeper to find that Seam of Gold
The gold rush happened because there was so much easy gold. Then it became more and more scarce. The only people to find any gold were the ones who knew a little more than most. They made a fortune while others clicked their heels. Find insight, knowledge, whatever you want to call it, which sets you apart from the rest. If you can't do that, don't waste your time.
Facts are Facts
Data will give you the truth about anything - but only to a point. However, it will help you look in the right direction and successful gambling is all about having laser focus and seeing the wood from the trees. If you are looking at everything you will lack focus and burn yourself out quickly. You need to work in an efficient manner.
Enjoyment and Meaning
If you don't love what you do - it will be hard work. And if it is hard work you will end up resenting what you do or lack the motivation to do it well. That is why it's important to enjoy horse racing and your niche. It has to have meaning beyond simply winning and losing. You need to see the full picture and enjoy the story. As a wise old horse breeder once said to me (Nelly Cox) ''Every horse has its story to tell...''
Be part of the story and appreciate the trials and tribulations - and every success. It will help you understand that every bet has meaning beyond the money. And understanding and appreciating that point will help you find more winners.
Conclusion
Betting is all about understanding. It goes beyond a horse on a given day. It is the appreciation of the knowledge you hold and especially the meaning.
Good luck.
Know the best 2yo horses before they race (free)
Looking for decent horse racing tips? Well, OLBG has today's free horse racing bets at the ready.
I guess many punters associate the best racing information with trainers and their respective stables.
I mean, they look after the horse on a daily basis. If they don't know, who does? From working in my niche of two-year-old horse racing I've had a lot of people come to me detailing what ''inside info'' they have. Whether these people are connected to stables, owners or trainers. I don't want to know!
Sounds strange, hey. Why wouldn't I want to know this ''valuable'' information? To put it bluntly, I don't want or need to rely on anyone to afford information.
However, each and every trainer is very different. Some are very good judges. They are usually the ones who keep their mouth shut. You often hear trainer comments when being interview by At The Races or Racing UK. You can also find a 'wealth' of information from various publications.
A few trainers do give you a straight answer. Bill Turner is as honest as they come and doesn't mind giving truthful interviews.
I used to love Clive Brittain for his optimism. The funny thing about being a glass half full man is that you can strike it lucky. Think back to Terimon in the 1989 Epsom Derby. Who else would have entered this son of Bustino? He finished runner-up to Nashwan at 500/1. Brittain was a master at ''getting lucky''. It had nothing to do with luck.
In truth, you don't need to be phoning a horse trainer to know lots of good info. To some extent, they are not the best people to ask at all. Consider these pointers for the two-year-old horse:
- Some trainers are poor judges of ability
- They have a limited string which makes assessment difficult
- The world and his wife know – little value
- They do not understand or appreciate the opposition
- Some are blatant liars
- Why would they tell you?
For that reason, I never listen to others. I've had people say the trainer told them about a horse. Often they run terribly. I have known a few trainers, and not being nasty, what they have told me didn't help find winners at all. Even if you own a horse many trainers are unwilling to say too much because they have little to gain. People expect every horse to win which is crazy. But give a few losers and the owner may get the huff and go elsewhere.
Probably the best way to learn about any horse trainer is to observe. They are creatures of habit. How many times have you seen a trainer target the same race with an exciting two-year-old?
Each has strength and weakness but the key to their understanding isn't as hidden as you may suspect. With a little bit of homework, you will reap rewards and benefit greatly.
Firstly, that isn't a photo of me (however moody).
I asked someone if I was turning into a grumpy old man.
They replied: ''No''
You don't need the transformation you got there a couple of years back.
For all those who know me better than not, they would describe me as a good, decent, generous and non-grumpy part of the populous that is planet Earth.
If you think I have been quiet, then you are right and wrong. I've not been saying too much on this platform but behind the scenes, I have been working like a crazy man to find those secrets to winning - when it comes to everything two-year-old horse racing. I've been looking at horse trainer statistics. The thing about working within the realm of numbers, data, facts, and figures is that the process is as boring as watching paint dry. To be honest, I think watching paint dry is more pleasurable.
The good part of quantitative data is that when the said trainer is completed it is sometimes a ''revelation''. This term may be good, bad or ugly. But all understanding brings greater knowledge. As I like to say: ''Knowledge is power''.
It's most certainly that.
The problems with revealing this data to you as a reader isn't straightforward. Well, it is very straightforward in ways because I cannot tell you. Or, if I do, it would be in such a limited form that you would think you were on a slow boat to China.
This data has taken me several months to complete (it's still not finished). It has been an equal measure of insight and annoyance. I wish it had been a simple task but when is anything worth its weight in gold a passing fancy?
If data is given out to a large audience, and they share this insight, it is worthless within no time at all. As you can imagine, I haven't spent hundreds of hours of work to just let it slip through my fingers for free.
You may be saying: ''Oh, so he's trying to sell something?''
The information isn't for sale for the same reason as above. Because someone would simply take advantage and sell it.
I would hate to put a price on the work I have done as it would be thousands of pounds in time. In fact, there is one person who will be given the information for free. That is my brother, Tony. At times, I have felt a bit grumpy when detailing the facts about so and so trainer and he says: ''Ok''.
I think that ''Ok'' took three days' work.
But that's life.
Frustrations come and go. They don't last long. Time passes by whatever we do. So it pays to be productive. Because you have something of worth. No one is going to give that away for free unless you have been exceptional in return. Even being a generous person - it would be foolish to give everything away.
I endeavour to find ways of keeping readers - and especially those subscribers on the mailing list - happy and informed.
The 10 Dark Horses do just that but I always want to give more but not to a point that I am working on all this information and giving it away for free. I wouldn't expect everything for free from you and I don't expect that mentality for me. That's purely someone taking me for a fool. I'm no one's fool. I don't need anyone to make my life what it is today. So we have to find a balance based on mutual respect.
It's the same with access to the Group Horses 2020.
I've seen a few people unsubscribe. I imagine they have read about not being given full access to the page and got in a huff. I think too many people get used to having quality information for free.
Do I care if a few people unsubscribe?
In ways, it is a touch frustrating. But I take those people as being very far away from who I am. They are not the people I want on my list so I am pleased they have gone.
I don't owe people anything. Everything I do comes at a cost to me. Would you work an hour for me in exchange for an hour I work for you?
However, I do intend to give more information on the mailing list this season, which will be a pleasant surprise and the information will be exceptional. I don't ever set the bar low for myself or others. So you will be very pleased you stuck around on the mailing list.
Every time I see a new subscriber I say to myself thank you and their name.
When people go...I just think I am not for you and you are not for me.
The amount of work I have put into this new forthcoming Flat turf season is beyond anything I have done before. It answers many questions and brings even more confidence. This will bring you confidence and the opportunity to make your betting pay. It may come in dribs and drabs but that isn't getting second best. It is just the reality of the world we live in. If you go the extra mile for me (as some of you do) you will be rewarded like a King.
But everything we do is about give and take.
I have some amazing plans and opportunities for all readers and subscribers. Some of these things may even have a price on their head. But I can tell you this. Everything I do will give you value and make you money. And I am happy to put a guarantee on that. When we say something, given information, whether a horse's name or a wealth of information is it based on the foundation of trust, integrity and winning money.
Thanks for your support.
In many ways, this post is a little bit out of time with the season. We are coming into autumn while this post considers the early season.
That's what happens when I have a slightly quieter day. Always thinking, planning and trying to find ways to improve my understanding of this complex niche. I like to use the maxim: ''Knowledge is power''.
You don't find much data beyond the pages of the Racing Post or one of a myriad of publications which do a fine job of keeping you informed at a very basic level.
In truth, that level is satisfactory for the general racing needs, which I use myself quite adequately.
However, what if you want to investigate a little deeper, below the surface structure and get into the nitty-gritty. I have done a little bit of research to show you what can be discovered and how this knowledge can help you look in the right direction when it comes to winners and losers. Both are equally important. Winners for putting money in your pocket and finding losers to lay (if that is your thing) or save you betting and wishing you really hadn't bothered. I'm sure we can all appreciate the latter.
So I wanted to have a better understanding of the first month or so of the two-year-old season. It can be a tricky time for punters. Starting the season with field after field of debutantes, limited form, trying to assess the merit of form, appreciating the betting (or not) and, as we do here, making use of significant entries, which, again, are few and far between early season.
Anyway, I took an hour of my time to investigate.
This season started at the end of March, the Brocklesby Stakes being the only two-year-old horse race in that month, followed by just 36 2yo horse races in April.
You can see from these numbers that the early season is very much a slow burner. It gives horses and trainers time to get into the swing of the season and assess. This is what we, as punters, should be doing, too.
From a betting point of view, early-season punts are either music to your ears or a terrible red-faced mistake.
That is why I am particularly careful. I would even consider it prudent to wait until the start of June before betting. It gives time to appreciate form and even horse trainers need time to appreciate the level of ability within the two-year-old ranks.
So what did this first month or so reveal?
It is quite interesting.
From 37 races we saw 25 winners come from just 7 stables. It proves the dominance of the early-season yards who know their job.
It will come as little surprise to see that Archie Watson led the way with 8 winners, many of these horses being the better throughout the season such as Lamberth Walk, Lady Kermit and Electric Ladyland. True, we saw better horses later season, but this is hardly surprising.
Other top stables included David Evans (4), Richard Fahey (3), Mark Johnston (3), David O'Meara (3), Charlie Appleby (2) and Paul Cole (2).
Twelve over stables found one winner apiece. [Michael Bell, George Scott, Tom Dascombe, Robert Cowell, Clive Cox, Richard Hannon, Tim Easterby, Jamie Osborne, Bryan Smart, Mick Channon, Jeremy Noseda & Joseph Tuite].
Winners came from a pretty restricted betting guide.
Almost 80% of winners (29) were priced 13/2 & less sp. In fact, 21 (56%) of the winners were priced 7/2 & less sp.
15 of the winners had previously raced. 13 were priced 11/2 & less sp.
So much for searching for big priced winners. However, there were half a dozen which won priced 10/1 or greater. It's interesting to consider that these were all debutantes.
This is just one of any number of years. I haven't done a study to appreciate whether past years had similar statistics. I would imagine they follow a similar path. Trainer statistics have a way of repeating themselves. So what have we gathered from this information? Basically, early-season winners come from the dominant trainers. This may vary from year to year, as the ebb and flow of ability go from one yard to the next. This has much to do with the intention of the given stables. It is no fluke that Archie Watson or David Evans feature high on the leaderboard.
The starting price of winners is revealing. Basically, the chance of you betting a winner priced over 13/2 starting price (SP) is slim. In fact, well over half of all winners were priced 7/2 & less sp.
Hopefully, this basic understanding will help you appreciate what it takes to be a successful punter early season.
I will continue this study up to the start of June to see if it follows a similar pattern.
I'm very busy and my time is finite.
Readers may have noticed Group Horse has been updated.
Pinatubo is the lead horse from last season, while Quadrilateral and Cape Palace show the way.
Exciting times ahead with Classic races on the horizon and a two-year-old season which starts with the Brocklesby Stakes.
It's the reason why our exceptional information helps pinpoint the future stars of racing - before they hit the track running.
Our prized 10 Dark Horse Mailing will be sent around July - August. (It's very likely we will be sending a second list towards the end of the turf season, too. )
Group Horse Daily will detail plenty of talented two-year-olds. The majority of these updates will be post-race.
IMPORTANT NOTICE
Our 2020 Group Horse List Page will be kept private this season.
The simple reason - too many random people and businesses are using this prized inside info and making money off the back of my hard work. I've had someone send me an email trying to sell me my own information!
Sadly, that means those who appreciate, need or just can't do without our updated Group Horse List will have to contact me and pay an annual subscription of £97.
The choice is yours. That's the only way the information will be available. I use the information to make money gambling and I'm pretty sure that's the reason you want it too. It's a small sum to have something most don't.
The alternative is updating the entries yourself. If you price your time at £25 an hour, that will give you about 4 hours of updates (which may cover the first month if you are lucky).
By restricting numbers this information is even more valuable to those with privileged, private access.
Simply contact me via this email jason@grouphorse.co.uk
Everything else regarding the website will stay the same.
Thanks for your support.
I'm sure as you read the title you were humming ''Send her victorious, Happy and glorious, Long to reign over us...''
Well, you might be!
As it happens, we're not talking about Her Majesty the Queen. Not too much pomp and ceremony here on our little blog but a wealth of horse racing insider knowledge which may keep you on the edge of your seat until the knighthood comes along.
So what is all this National Anthem talk?
You may need a long memory but there is a connection with the five-year-old horse National Anthem and Group Horse Daily. If you take a look back to 2017 Group Horse Page you will see his name appear.
Back then, this son of Intikhab was trained by John Butler, still in the ownership of Mark McKay (football agent and son of Willie McKay). National Anthem is out of a four-time winning mare [Song Of Passion] who was trained by Richard Hannon Snr. By all accounts, she was a talented horse racing in the familiar silks of Thurloe Thoroughbreds. She achieved an official rating of 101, contesting at Listed class. With total earning over £80,0000.
National Anthem was purchased as a yearling for 42,000 guineas and then at 2yo for £50,000 by Mark McKay.
The interesting point regarding this two-year-old's formative season is that John Butler entered him for the Lily Agnes Stakes, which registered with us as being a horse of promise. At least, a horse the trainer and owner thought capable of winning a race or two.
National Anthem made his two-year-old debut on the 4th of October 2017, when taking part in a 5-furlong sprint at Nottingham. You can check the result by clicking this link. He ran a respectable race, finishing fourth, beaten less than three lengths. I remember looking at the horse on the day because he was a speculative price, most probably due to being trained by a less fashionable handler.
Anyway, for whatever reason, on the 6th of November 2018, he changed stables and went to John Balding.
National Anthem made his second start on the 12th of November 2018, where he was relatively fancied in the betting price 11/2. Racing over 5f at Southwell, he dwelt, but led at the two-furlong pole before dropping back to eighth (beaten a similar number of lengths). Interestingly, the race comment noted: ''the trainer said the colt had a breathing problem''.
On the 12th of November 2018, National Anthem had wind surgery.
Nothing much was heard of National Anthem until the 28th December 2019 when it was noted the chestnut horse had changed trainer from John Balding to David Brown, still in the ownership of Mark McKay.
On the 3rd of January 2020, after being off course for 417 days, National Anthem returned to Southwell racecourse, stepping up to 6f, and backed from 12/1 - 15/2. Ridden by Paul Mulrennan, he led from the stalls, completely outclassed the opposition, and ran out an easy four-length winner with 10 stones in his saddle. You can take a look at the full result by clicking the link here.
So National Anthem won on his third start at five years old.
For a fast horse, who clearly showed promise at two, he had to wait a long time to taste victory.
I can imagine connections were over the moon to see those dreams come to fruition. And along the way, some nice bets landed too.
God save the Queen.
It's a question that many punters have considered.
Their reason is crystal clear. If you know the best horses in training then you are one step closer to being a winner. Two-year-old horse racing is the perfect answer to the question of where to look. Unlike other age groups, every season starts with a blank slate.
Now I know a lot of punters hate two-year-old horse racing for that reason.
''No one knows what is going to happen as there isn't any form. It's a lottery. Not even the trainers have got a clue.''
The trouble with that reasoning is clear. They are words of someone who doesn't understand two-year-old racing and your point of view is inaccurate. To have an opinion you need to have experience. It's like me saying buying stocks and shares is a waste of time when I have no idea about the subject.
You see what I mean. If you put in the time and effort I can assure you that limitation would be viewed as opportunity and money to be won.
Fair enough, not everyone has the time to understand two-year-old racing. It is a unique age group.
Far too many people jump to unfounded opinions about so much of horse racing and gambling. They believe just because they don't understand something that no one else does either. I don't mean to be cruel, but when I think about that statement I have an image of an ostrich with its head in the sand. It's a limiting point of view and in reality it does no one any favour especially the person giving their opinion that two-year-old racing is for mug punters or impossible to understand.
The other day one of my mates shared a post from Eric Winner tips. I noticed a comment saying you want to be careful of those gangsters.
Perhaps it was written with humour.
However, there is one thing I can guarantee about the person who made that comment. Which makes them even more stupid than they imagine. What assessment did they do to make their judgement? How long did they take to make an informed opinion about the subject they were quoting?
Pardon me for making a judgment, but I'm pretty sure they didn't even look at the website. If they did, how long did it take to be the font of all wisdom?
One minute?
It's ridiculous, hey?
So it's ok to make a judgment without assessment?
It is if you want the owner or professionals of that website to view them with contempt.
It is sad that people feel the need to make such statements. That they do not even stop for a moment and consider the only weak link is themselves. They are too stupid to even be able to even join those dots together.
All too those who put in the work (often for none or little return) are targetted. But what do those who take so freely ever give back?
The majority of people need to stop for a moment and take stock of who they are and how they think because from what I have seen so often is that their words are a reflection of their own limitation.
If you want to know a subject well then ask someone who knows the subject well.
It's not difficult to appreciate.
Do you know who uttered those legendary words? Of course, as I put the name in the title...
Ras Prince Monolulu. You can read about the famous horse racing tipster here.
Time flies when you are having fun!
I often chat with Craig who runs the excellent Craig's Betting Blog. He had one of those weekends he'd probably rather forget. It's not the case of doing anything wrong, just that winners and loser often follow peaks and troughs. When things are going south or north (whichever position of the planet you are looking at your compass) it doesn't matter. Because, as Sunday displayed, when the well-backed Convict stumbles and the jockey loses his irons you know it's not your day. I've had so many days like this you wouldn't believe it. If I was a hypochondriac I'd be visiting the GP for a suitcase full of Beta Blockers. A fine malt whisky and a chaser of Nadolo, followed by an expensive Cuban cigar. I'd use it as a fuse to detonate a wizened brain. Sometimes everything goes wrong even though - longterm - you are as balanced as the bubble in a spirit level.
Anyway, being part of this gambling world can be like sitting on a roller-coaster, through a field, with horses, bookmakers and sickbag between your knees.
We live and learn. In ways, every winner or loser is trying to help you if you listen. Every loser showing you may have pushed your luck too far. Every winner a pat on the back. Sometimes a loser isn't wrong when it loses by a small margin or something unusual happens. Another day... I know it sounds like a cliche but by golly it is true.
So we start a new week.
It looks a pretty average Monday.
As far a significantly entered two-year-olds go these are thin on the ground. These are part of the jigsaw puzzle.
6:00 Wolverhampton -
Sir Oliver, trained by Richard Hughes, has been relatively fancied on both starts to date. A nice-looking horse who has come unstuck by being a touch too keen. Interesting to see if this son of Dark Angel can show more today. A prime draw may be positive. These potential speculative bets can be a pain as they can erode the betting bank if they lose but at the same time drive you to the edge of despair if you don't bet and they win.
6:30 Wolverhampton -
A very restricted race type which often goes to form horse. Interesting to see that Daniel Kubler has Secret Acquisition racing in the ownership of loyal patrons Mr & Mrs G Middlebrook. This daughter of Sea The Stars is out of a limited mare who was placed once. The stable have very few juveniles but they can run well on debut. An entry for the bet365 Fillies' Mile (Group 1) could be an exceptional sign or, conversely, a red herring even though its a horse!
Time will tell.
Followers of Group Horse know the information is exceptional. How can it be beaten? It is beyond the norm simply because it is the opinion of horse trainers big and small. You don't need me to sing its praises.
The likes of Pinatubo. A horse that wins at Group 1 ''impressively''. A horse that's going to be favourite for the Guineas and most probably the Derby. The way it's going, it may win both!
Craig, who runs Craig's Betting Blog, is an avid follower of Group Horse, to the point of following the highs of many horses on his pages. He does it very well. In a short period of time his blog has achieved over 17,000 pageviews. Month on month the traffic has been building. I mean, it's just a few months.
Is Craig the epitome of Pinatubo?
After studying the Group entries, he said: ''I thought just following horses with Group entries would mean they are winners waiting to happen.''
In truth, they aren't. Not all of them. Many, yes, but not all.
And that is the crux of all the question about finding winners. Without a doubt, the information on these pages is better than you will find via 95% of websites, phone calls, or funny dances at the Masonic Lodge. However, the true understanding of this information is knowing how to filter the good from the bad. We have all seen well-entered juveniles disappoint time after time. They can be quite frustrating. I have been working long and hard to find the answers to these questions. That is why I don't use the Group entries alone because they are part of the jigsaw.
Form, betting, statistics are the key to understanding the full picture. That knowledge isn't easy to understand. It's a mix of variables which makes the Rubik's Cube look simple. At least that has a fixed mathematical formula. If you know the ''secret'' you can complete the task in a matter of seconds.
Horse racing changes for each and trainer and can vary from season to season.
So in truth Group Entries aren't the complete secret to betting success. They are part of the equation.
So many race days bring moments of happiness, frustration and despair.
Perhaps the latter of those three words is a touch full on but I'm sure all gamblers have had moments of extreme frustration (boarding on despair).
Anyway, I had one of those moments today when missing a 33/1 winner. Well, I say missed (that isn't quite true as I did have a tiny bet) but by all ways of thinking it was nothing. Those who follow the Group entries may have noticed Andrew Balding's All You Wish had, earlier in the year, been given a Gimcrack Stakes entry. It didn't run in the race and disappointed on debut. However, this proves the point of why you need to appreciate the entries and keep an open mind that anything is possible.
Other than very few people (those in the know) wouldn't have remembered this son of Showcasing had anything going for it at all. I can imagine most people wouldn't have known it was considered for any class race. The horse looked poor after showing little on debut at Salisbury when starting a 16/1 shot. A slow start ruined any hope of winning. All You Wish finished twelfth of fourteen.
Three weeks off course and Balding enters this horse for Kempton, stepping up to 7f. The starting odds 33/1. Betfair the price touched 90/1. There was a little bit of money just before the off as he was backed to 40s (exchange).
The rest is history. All You Wish, led from just about start to finish and battled well to hold two favourites who put down serious challenges. However, neither could stop this big galloping horse which held on to win by a neck.
You can imagine the thoughts going through my mind.
The main reason I didn't bet was simply that Balding doesn't have many winners on their second start over 9/1. See, sometimes you can just think you know too much. This winner helped me write a new guideline for my own personal bets, which, to some extent, will help prevent this from happening in future. As we all know, there will always be something. If you have to learn a lesson, you may as well learn it and move forward.
I hope a few of you noticed the interest in All You Wish today, as the entry is there to be seen, for those who care to look and appreciate the information at hand.
I'm pleased to say Craig from Craig's Betting Blog had a few quid each-way. Great to hear. It proves the worth of the information we detail.
5:20 Chelmsford -
Just a quick look at this race.
As always proving the point, the first three horses in the betting are all significantly entered as forwarded by Group Horse. It's the reason why our information sees top-class two-year-olds win every pattern race throughout the season. You really don't get any better. Anyway, enough about all that.
6f Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo).
Readers may have seen our post which stated Bill The Butcher was fancied to go well on debut at Windsor, and one of the best two-year-olds in the Richard Spencer stable. Rebel Racing has been blessed with a number of exceptional talents over the years.
To be fair, this son of Starspanglebanner had a stiff task when making his first start, facing winners, form horses and unraced talents. This February foal wasn't best away from the stalls, which basically gave him little chance of winning. Looking inexperienced throughout the race, this £64,000 yearling purchase faded in the final furlong to finish fifth of nine.
He looked a raw, big baby, with much to learn.
After 20-days off course, he should be wiser and better equipped. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see he shows some inexperience on this second start.
A wide draw on a turning course isn't the best position to start. Even over sprint distances, you do not want your bet to be racing three or four wide on the bend because it is an incredibly difficult position to win from.
Also, if dropping in behind, you don't want to be too far off the pace to talented, experienced horses. All these aspects need to be considered because you don't want to fall short with your assessment.
Reviewing Group Horse's, you will see Bill The Butcher has been given two significant entries.
I must admit this hasn't been a vintage year for Spencer's two-year-olds and make no mistake that does bring down the general standard. I don't think any of the stable's juveniles are anything special. Skontonovski is probably the best and he isn't a star in the making, although capable of winning races.
In truth, this race has a strange look about it.
Last Surprise is a decent juvenile from Simon Crisford, an easy debut winner, who is on something of a recovery mission after attempts at a higher class. He has to shoulder a win penalty which doesn't make life easy. It takes talent to win under a penalty. An official rating of 85 details a very capable juvenile. There is always a chance this juvenile has regressed.
It's a similar dilemma with Saeed bin Suroor's Dubai Romance. This chestnut daughter of Dubawi was fancied to go well on debut but ran no race. She hasn't been seen for over three months which suggests there was an issue that day. Better should be seen today. If very strong in the market, I would be expecting a bold show. On breeding, you may well wonder why she isn't racing over further. Perhaps they feel they can get away with 6f but it is a slight worry.
Shoot To Kill was a big price on debut but ran well and beaten by a length or two. He stepped up in class when returning to Ascot and disappointed. That was a tough race so he may have paid the price of trying to win the race and faded fast. Another horse that hasn't been seen for about seven weeks. May have claims if back to best. Stall one is a positive and they may lead.
Conclusion: At first instance I was looking at Bill The Butcher will some appeal. Having reviewed his debut, it was a decent start to proceedings. He looked very inexperienced that day and it wouldn't surprise me if he is still on a big learning curve. Turning courses can make life difficult for a horse that may still be a touch green behind the ears. Also, a wide draw may compound the problem if not briskly into stride. It would be more appealing if there were three places for each-way backers. I will be keeping an eye on the betting on the exchanges. The main thing that would sway me to bet is if this colt drifted markedly in the betting to a point it held some value. He may well be a different horse today and win well. However, this doesn't look the easiest of races. The two favourite are potentially smart juveniles and the added problem is that both can be viewed from one extreme to the other. If both have regressed or just not living up to expectation, it could turn out to be a pretty poor race. However, if both are back to best it may well be a very tough challenge.
In addition, the Shaun Keightly debutant, San Juan, cost 50,000 euros as a breeze-up (2yo) sale, which implies this son of Tagula could have ability. On balance, I would have to take a watching brief.
