Wednesday, 28 July 2021
Saturday, 1 May 2021
Things are heating up.
That's the two-year-old horse racing reason. Once again I must apologise for those who have been waiting for the mailings to be sent out on a regular basis. Life has been getting in the way but when I get a moment you will see a new email.
So the first month of the season has come and gone. To be exact, the month of April and two races in the month of March.
My first mailing detailed that in 2019 (the 2020 season wasn't counted as it was an anomaly with the season starting in June) that 75% of the winners were priced 11/2 and less SP.
This season has been pretty much the same with 76%.
It's interesting how many patterns can be seen within the two-year-old racing whether it's trainers, jockeys, betting...
Basically, most things follow a pattern and in that sense can be relied upon.
Anyway, that was all something and nothing. I've noticed that the Chester May meeting is on the horizon and the Lily Agnes has 16 two-year-old (2yo) entrants. This seems quite a large number compared with previous years. I don't know the exact number but it's the first big juvenile race of the season.
Get ready for the 5th May 1:45 Chester.
This 5f race has a rich history.
Remember this is the first entry stage and the final declaration will see a maximum of 12 runners. I would imagine it will be 9 or so as it's often the case those with a wide draw are non runners (self certificate).
At the time of writing, 10 of the potential runners are winners.
I will give an update the the final declarations are made.
Take a look at these previous winners.
Result: By the time the race started the 2021 Lily Agnes had just 4 runners.
Navello, trained by George Boughey, in the silks of Ms Fiona Carmicheal & Mrs Evelyn Yates.
The former, the owner of the sire, Ivawood. Navello ran out an impressive winner and looks a very good two-year-old who is likely to improve for a step up to six furlongs.
The ICM Stellar Sports Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes Results...— chesterraces (@ChesterRaces) May 5, 2021
1: Navello (5)
2: Devious Angel (6)
3: Beauzon (2)
4: Mojomaker (4)
ICM Stellar Sports is one of the biggest and most successful sports agencies in the world. Find out more: https://t.co/aP30kMnEf3 pic.twitter.com/dplyklScYl
Could well go to Royal Ascot and take some beating.
Graphics: Racing Post
Tuesday, 20 April 2021
Well, the Flat turf season has started in earnest.
In fact, at the time of writing this post, there have been 22 winners. To me, early season is a time to assess, be patient, and bet carefully. I often say the quote about taking a punt on a debutante or early-season form horse:
''They are either easy winners or poor losers.''
It's a fact.
There is little value to be had betting on a form horse. And whether you realise this or not, assessing the form of these races is incredibly difficult. Take any race and try to find a winner. You may get lucky or not. Each horse has to be taken as an individual but take it from me you'll be doing well to find a winner and even more so find any value.
Not to say you can't.
What I'm trying to say, is that it is best to let the dust settle before being too dogmatic about who will win the next race.
Taking a look at the winners so far, there has been a mixed bag.
It's pretty much pointless detailing winners. From a purists aspect they are good to follow and see where they lead.
Thinking about who will be heading to Royal Ascot is what keeps race fans excited. Not only race fans but owners, trainers and all those related to the business.
Here are a few of the better two-year-old winners I have seen so far.
How good - who knows?
Chipotle [trained by Eve Johnson Houghton]
A nice ''easy'' winner of the Brocklesby Stakes, a race that has seen a number of form horses disappoint.
The Gatekeeper [trained by Mark Johnston]
A small race of just four runners but a determined winner at Musselburgh. The form has been franked with the third horse Khunan showing ability at Ripon next time out. In the ownership of Middleham Park Racing XIV, The Gatekeeper is one of the better juveniles I've seen this early season. A very good yearling purchase at £60,000.
Arboy Will [trained by John Bridger]
Horse racing is often about rooting for the underdog. It is something that makes not only a story but brings hope to the little stables and owners who don't have deep pockets but a passion for their racing and hope beyond hope their day will come. Arboy Will won at Windsor on debut at odds of 150/1. I couldn't have been more pleased for connections. Whether this son of Ardad will keep on winning only time will tell but I have a thought this gelding will be heading to Royal Ascot. It's a fact, that every horse trainer has their day and they make the two-year-old season all the more special for these moments.
Forca Brasil [trained by George Boughey]
Without doubt it is difficult to assess the form of these early-season races. However, Newmarket is always a good starting point to find a talented juvenile. Forca Brasil is owned by Amo Racing Ltd, who have started this Flat season with an abundance of two-year-old runners from a mix of trainers. Kiavash Joorabchian, a football agent, really seems to have a bottomless pit of money and he is getting the success he deserves. Forca Brasil won in comfortable fashion and looks a colt going places. Boughey has started the season in good form and it's worth noting this colt was earmarked for the Brocklesby Stakes. In ways, it's a shame this son of Cotai Glory didn't make his debut at Doncaster. For good measure he beat Mark Johnston's Love De Vega, who also held an entry for the Brocklesby so that tells a story in itself.
Berkshire Shadow [Andrew Balding]
It's always a good sign when Andrew Balding sends out a debut winner. You can pretty much guarantee there is much more to come. Racing in the familiar silks of Berkshire Parts & Panels Ltd, this grey son of Dark Angel was nibbled in the market (6/1 - 9/2) and caught the eye after a slow start which saw layers on the exchanges thinking they had found a candidate to make some easy cash. That turned out to be a very expensive idea as although several lengths behind this March foal ran on well in the closing stages to win a shade cosily. It's difficult to assess the strength of the Newbury race but Oisin Murphy was impressed by the colt who really looked a hopeless case with a tardy start.
😯 BERKSHIRE SHADOW (Dark Angel @YeomanstownStud) misses the break but flies home under @oismurphy to score impressively on debut @NewburyRacing 🥇— Cheveley Park Stud (@CPStudOfficial) April 16, 2021
Bred by @CPStudOfficial, this exciting colt was purchased @Tattersalls1766 by @AndrewBalding2 👏 pic.twitter.com/IOxI6mYKer
Anyway, these five two-year-old winners have proved victorious and connections will be hoping they can follow up next start, which is no easy task under a win penalty. It's often a sign a horse is up to competing at pattern class.
Good luck to all.
Thursday, 15 April 2021
The might of a powerful owner can transform the fortunes of any yard. However, most stables have a familiar type of setup. The ebb and flow of owners sees most reaching a point of equilibrium.
From my vast horse trainer analysis I have found a lot of data and understand the strength and weakness of stables. This regards the standard of horse, potential winning grade and most importantly winning starting price (SP).
What's interesting about studying horse trainer data?
Most punters don't look beyond the basic info what's found on your favourite platform. I use the Racing Post and Time Form.
The important undertaking is to go beyond the average study. If you don't have the passion, motivation or hunger to go the extra mile you are wasting your time. It might sound a bit cutting, but it's true.
With a little bit of digging you will go from the populous to those in the 1% of understanding. That information gives you a winning edge and just as importantly helps direct your focus. If you aren't looking in the right direction, you are not only going to lose money gambling but you are simply wasting your time.
The interesting point is that you either know something or you don't. If you don't have data you are lacking. Your best idea is a hunch. If you want to bet on a hunch then go for it. But without that reference point you won't understand anything.
Every trainer is different. That doesn't take much working out but if you don't know about a given trainer you are betting in the dark.
And, true, you may be able to understand that one has more winners than another. But what do those winners tell you? Is there a pattern or some vital information you can gather from this data?
There is so much information waiting to be found.
For instance, certain trainers never, ever, win at speculative priced odds. In fact, some of the data I have about trainers would make you question what you have been doing for all these years. I would use this same data to look at your bets objectively and a lot of the time I would be shaking my head.
Any horse can defy the odds and win. But do you really want to be fighting against the tide of data that say your bet is most likely a loser?
And I'm not talking about horses a giant odds.
You'd be surprised.
The problem with lacking in any area that you bet is that you simply don't know.
To be a successful gambler you need to know answers to questions. If you can't put the work into find this elusive data then you will never learn from those losses. In addition, you will never learn from those wins.
If you don't work to understand horse trainer data you are missing a trick.
A little bit of work can reap rewards.
Learn more about Top Trainer Secrets by subscribing to the Easy Professional Gambler Mailing Series, click the button, below.
Saturday, 3 April 2021
In truth, it was a fantastic debut effort, a winner waiting to happen.
Adrian Paul Keatley has a number of two-year-olds for owners Ontoawinner most likely due to his success last year with 33/1 debut winner Queen of Rio, Wob Wob Wob, Shala Asker, Twice Adaay & Quiet Assassin.
Both Queen Of Rio and Queen Assassin raced at pattern class. The former now sold and in training with Luke McJannet.
It's interesting to see Keatley is sending Littletimyhoulihan to make his debut at Musselburgh (1:20) to contest the 5f Betway EBF Novices Stakes (Class 4) (2yo) race on good to soft going. It's just a small field of four horses.
This bay gelding, a March foal, is sired by Due Diligence out of a debut-winning mare. Littletimyhoulihan may be an inspired purchase, a 4000 guinea yearling. The stable have a good record with the two-year-old debutantes and it's interesting to note that this colt was earmarked for the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. Considering Ontoawinner won the Brocklesby with Show Me Show Me (2019) it could be a sign of confidence.
I will be watching today as this may be a tactical affair but it would be no surprise to see Littletimyhoulihan run a big race today.
Who could forget the success of their star filly Quiet Reflection who won at Group One on two occasions as well as other pattern race wins. An exceptional horse.
Tuesday, 30 March 2021
It has felt like a long wait.
Then the first two-year-old race of the season appeared at Doncaster's Lincoln meeting. The Brocklesby started proceedings and it was great to see Eve Johnson Hought's Chipotle (red and black silks) run out a comprehensive winner. This son of Havana Gold looks to be an inspired purchase costing just 10,000 guineas (4,500g foal). Owners The Woodway 20 have a potentially smart colt on their hands.
Chipotle was pretty streetwise for his debut over the five-furlong straight and cruised up on the outside of the field to pull clear by two-and-a-quarter lengths from Wonderful World (Mick Channon) & Makalu (Kevin Ryan). Charles Bishop rode a nice race on this April foal.
There have been many and varied winners of the Brocklesby Stakes. For instance there have been a number of horses (some very talented) who have never won again, while the likes of Hearts Of Fire & The Last Lion who have won at the highest level.
Chipotle's victory detailed a potentially smart horse. I was struck by the physicality of this colt who has size and scope to progress with racing and should defy a win penalty. Most two-year-olds winners under a penalty compete at pattern class. Although not wanting to get ahead of ourselves, it would be no surprise to see this colt earmarked for the Lily Agnes Stakes and thoughts of Royal Ascot.
Good luck to connections.
Monday, 15 March 2021
Are you ready for the Cheltenham Festival Gold Cup?
What do you fancy?
I've got a short-list of one horse.
It's a secret!
Anyway, what's all this about, Betway asking West Ham Football players and Richard Hoiles to take part in a game show?
Not heard about it?
Then you really need to watch the video, below, because it's one of the funniest promotions I've ever seen. In fact, it is hilarious. It's like a head-on crash between footaball and horse racing. The Betway Bumper is a fun-packed three minutes of joy where Jesse Lingard and three teammates compete in a battle of everything equine.
What's happens next will surprise you.
You'll laugh. Lots.
Perhaps there's just too much information!
Sunday, 28 February 2021
You read about successful gambling syndicates or individuals such as Patrick Veitch and Starlizard run by Tony Bloom.
Data is used with military precision.
There's a good reason for this. It works. Even with exacting levels of information their return on investment may be minimal. However, betting with vast amounts of money, even a percent profit can return big money. Let alone if you can get to the dizzy heights of, perhaps 16%, as detailed by some.
Data is king.
It's the difference between knowing and not knowing, something.
Without statistical significance we are in the realm of guessing. There's nothing wrong with guessing because to a point even the best of us do just that.
I once had someone send me an email saying: ''You don't know anything about two-year-old horse racing, you're just guessing.''
The joys of having a mailing list.
Even the best trainers guess. If they guess, what do you expect a mere mortal to do?
What's the saying: ''Never bet on a tip from a jockey.''
Perhaps a variation of the word guessing is interpretation.
The data I use is interpreted to bring understanding.
Even with the best data we are at the mercy of anomalies. For instance, every favourite doesn't win. This assessment of the favourite is based on data. It is still a matter of opinion. Using the given data. When dealing with physical beings, we can only use skill to find and interpret the data. As they say, animals aren't machines. Even a machine can go wrong. However, if dealing with fixed odds, such as a roulette wheel, we can understand what, on average, we are dealing with.
So when someone says: ''You're guessing!''
I think you're right because even Willie Mullins heading to the Cheltenham Festival is guessing. If he isn't guessing quite so much about his horses he is the opposition which he is unlikely to be privy. He is guessing with millions of variables. It may be something like a rogue, sleepy, winter wasp stinging a horse which goes unnoticed, but if the horse has an allergic reaction you may as well be betting on the rag.
Over the last few years, I have investigated just about every trainer. Without this data I would well and truly be guessing. Not to say that experience and all those other skills would leave me lacking. I don't believe I would be lacking. In fact, I know I would have enough ability to make my betting pay.
But data helps us work within some area of structure, the realms of possibility.
I don't care who you are or what you know or what you say, any horse can defy the odds.
But should we be scared of such anomalies?
Without question, no.
Data sets the boundaries. It tells you, on balance, what is possible and what is not. It is a friend who tips you a good few winners and helps you leave those losers alone.
Data is key to your success. In fact, it is something that easily sets you apart because it is a truth of some kind.
For example, data about a horse trainer can be a significant pointer, added to other aspects such as form, significant entries, jockey booking, course stats and all other parts of the jigsaw puzzle show the way.
No one, unless some God-given force, knows the future.
You can name anyone on planet Earth, and they will have misgivings, worries, concerns about a potential loss.
But long term it is a different matter.
You can use data to bring confidence, structure and a reference point to work from.
This will help you look in the right direction.
If you are looking in the wrong direction you have no hope.
Data is king. But it is only part of understanding. It is the scaffolding to your success.
When it comes to it, we are all guessing to a point. Even the greatest minds are guessing to point.
That isn't a weakness, it's a fact, and one that really is the truth of an understanding that you should applaud.
Wednesday, 24 February 2021
Where do the two collide?
The study of behaviour and mind has been used to investigate psychopathology, gambling addiction. It is an area of research that makes interesting reading and the findings have helped compulsive gamblers find answers to questions and techniques to kick the habit.
Psychology isn't just about finding answers to problems.
It can be used as a tool for advantage.
Psychology is more a part of life than you realise. It's part of the gambling world. From the way words, literature, adverts and even the layout of business premises are created and implemented for positive or negative.
Here's something I doubt you have ever thought about.
Why would you?
But this piece of research just shows you how something seemingly innocent, pointless or irrelevant can make the difference between a good or bad decision.
This can be the difference between winning and losing money.
That's something we all need to consider.
Psychological research will captivate you.
So what are we talking about?
Basically, the seat that you sit.
What the hell difference does it matter where you place your posterior?
Let's set the scene. You just sat down to do a day's trading. You are ready to make a few trades. You may win, lose or draw.
Would you ever, ever, ever consider that the chair you sit can make you think in different ways.
You have a good or bad day's betting because you chose the wrong chair.
This post was inspired by an old article titled: Life's a Bitch When Betting from your Deckchair.
The chair you sit may hamper or hinder your betting performance.
I learned about this aspect of research after reading an articled penned by Jeremy Mercer: Exploring the Promise and the Perils of the New Unconscious.
In 2009, a group of students from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology took part in a study on ''bargaining techniques''. The students were seated in an office, shown a car listed at $16,500 and told to get the best possible price.
Offers were made and rejected, deals struck. Then the students went on their way.
By all accounts, it was a straightforward negotiation.
The experiment was remarkable because it tested whether people could be unconsciously influenced through the sense of touch.
Putting it bluntly, could the chair that you sit have an influence on your behaviour?
There's you sitting in your comfy armchair, ready to bet on the afternoon meeting at Sandown Park.
You may be saying: ''How can the chair you sit make sod all difference to your profit and loss?''
It take a bit of believing, hey.
Half of the students sat on a hard wooden seat, while the others sat on a soft cushioned chair.
It was found that those sitting on a hard chair were better negotiator and got the best deal.
It is hypothesised that the harder the chair, the harder the negotiator. It translates into a more confident bargaining position.
The ''Hard Chair Effect'' is part of new research which unlocks mysteries of human unconscious and the power it can harness.
The next time you are considering a bet, take a moment to consider the environment may affect your unconscious mind - positive or negative.
Punters and bookmakers alike can use this research to take advantage.
Psychology can be a tool for advantage.
Tuesday, 23 February 2021
I guess it's a problem we don't consider too much unless we are stuck in that position or know a friend or a loved one who is literally at the mercy of their next bet.
A compulsion they struggle to ignore or fall prey.
Thankfully I have never had a problem with gambling addiction although I imagine a lot of people would probably be convinced I have. I don't bet for fun. In fact, I don't really like gambling full stop. It sounds a strange kind of happening.
''So you make money from gambling-related websites and betting but it's really your thing?''
In truth, I see gambling as a high-level game of skill. For that to be the case, it has to be skill based rather than fixed odds, which, long term, cannot be beaten. Perhaps the exception to that thought being a skilled card counters at blackjack.
A skill is a skill.
You try playing a county chess player.
They will make your average Joe look like a country bumpkin chewing on a carrot.
It seems many gamblers have a problem. Within the world of psychology this is called a psychopathology.
Gambling addition is an illness. It is a very strong compulsion to bet even when the punter knows it is a problem.
I guess that is the nature of addiction.
Denial, irrational, compulsion...
If you find you are waiting outside the bookmakers to play on the Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (F.O.B.T.) then you may well have a problem. If you bet more than you can afford to lose. You are chasing your loses.
Stop for a moment and question what you are doing.
I had my friend write an article and I embedded a YouTube Video titled: Gambling Addiction & Me: The Real Hustler (Full Documentary) Real Stories about Alexis Conran who explored gambling addiction in the light of his late father who went from a happy-go-lucky punter to a conman who was eventually imprisoned and sadly died of throat cancer while incarceration.
The video is worth watching as it shows the truth of gambling addiction.
Perhaps one of the saddest aspects of gambling addiction is that ''winning isn't enough'' and it is actually those near misses that get a gambler hooked on a dopamine adrenaline rush. Research has shown that the gambling addict's brain is basically wired differently from most.
Conran chatted with a number of addicts who struggled to kick the habit. They varied from young and old, men and women.
While in Las Vegas, he chatted to a couple who paid the price for their addiction. They lived in a storm drain under a road. Their clothes kept in a shopping cart in case it rained. The couple, in their 30 - 40s, had lived their for the past six months. They would wander round casinos hoping to get lucky by finding a chip on the floor or a few dollars left on a slot machine. If they found a few dollars the bloke would gamble it and hope to win enough to get the basics to survive. Their life was a perpetual hope of somehow winning enough money to get out of a life of despair accepting it was as much keeping them in a life of destitution.
The man said it himself: ''It's a double-edged sword.''
He said he had gambled over a million dollars (gone through his hands, which is very different from losing a million).
It was a sorry state of affairs.
The problem of anyone struggling with addiction is that they are likely to continue to fight their demons for the rest of time.
Sadly, many addicts (and family members) lose their lives as a consequence of a very personal problem.
For Alexis Conran this addiction cost him the love of his father from a very young age. He disappeared and left him and his mother probably feeling he was doing them a favour.
Conran had battled with the loss of his father and questioned his interest in gambling to the point he was concerned he could be the same.
He is far from an addict.
However, the sadness of missing a life with his father and not having the opportunity to forgive him revealed the real loss of those to gambling addiction.
A loss that so often is felt by all.
If you have a gambling problem, please find the strength to get help.
The opportunity is life changing.
Read our last post: Where Does a Successful Gambler Start?