The Exception to the Rule


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Sunday, 6 January 2019

January's Free Mailing

Hi Guys,

Happy New Year.

I often receive emails from subscribers asking what work is undertaken over the closed season.

''Are you working like a beast?''

To be fair, I am always working to improve my knowledge. In fact, I work harder this time of year than most. My research investigates horse trainers. It is one part of the puzzle in understanding what makes a winner. It is a worthwhile endeavour because knowing how a trainer works can lead to an advantage. Most of you will know that certain trainers are very unlikely to win with two-year-old debutantes. While a few trainers have just about as much chance of winning on debut as they do the second start. The point about research is that you can find an answer to a question. Or, at least, you have more idea than not. Without knowledge, we can only guess.

I remember a quote from studying Psychology: ''Without objective testing, theories are guesses however good.''

Knowledge is power.

To be successful at gambling you need to know your niche. Find data that isn't freely available by doing a bit of digging. To make money you don't need to be the best - just a little better than most!

I can hear you saying: ''Well, what have you found?''

Well, you'd be surprised what you can find with a little bit of work. It can help you find winners and losers. They are one and the same thing these days with backers and layers plying their trade on the exchanges.

One piece of information can be like a seam of gold. It can be something you use to gain an advantage. That equates to making your betting pay.

Our focus is two-year-old horse racing. Take a random horse trainer within this niche. What do I know?

A lot.

Take Ed Dunlop... A very talented trainer. So how do his two-year-old debutantes go? What kind of price do they win on debut?

Knowledge is power.

Do you know anything about this subject? I doubt very few people could know unless they did some research. So you could only hazard a guess! What could you do with this piece of information if you knew the answer?

Make money?

At worse, feel more confident that a given horse is very unlikely to beat your selection. Now imagine if you knew all these things for every trainer. That leads to a powerful understanding.

So, what have we learned about Ed Dunlop's two-year-old debutantes? Very few are likely to win when priced over 14/1. Now, you might say: ''Well, that's no surprise!'' But the point is, did you know before I told you?

In fact, going back to over 400 debutantes he has only had one horse that won over this price (14/1). It was priced 50/1 (I wonder if any of you can tell me the fillies name?).

Make the most of your opportunities by doing your own research or you can simply rely on Group Horse to keep you informed.

Thanks for your support.
Regards,
Jason

Thursday, 20 December 2018

Thursday's 2YO Update (20th December)

A quiet few days. Not always a bad thing in an age of too much racing. 

Just the one race today detailing a significant entry. 

7:00 Chelmsford - 

Mark Johnston has Mister Chiang going here. This bay colt is a son of Archipenko. He has raced four times and shown a fair level of ability without being anything special. He has an official rating of 77. Not bad prize money for this Class 3 race at £7,763. By all accounts, this May foal hasn't been considered for any race of great merit. Just the solitary Class 2 entry is as basic as it gets. However, he has shown ability on his last three starts. Often employing front-running tactics, this turning course, from a low draw, may well suit. A drop back to one mile is no bad thing. I can see this colt leading and putting down a decent effort. 

I will be watching.  

Mister Chiang 4/1 1st 

Note: With the two major favourites disappointing this was real hope for Mister Chiang. The drop in distance helps him finish the race although for much of the trip he looked on the edge of being outpaced. It is always a strength to finish a race. Touched 7/1 on Betfair and available at each way odds. Nice win. 


Sunday, 16 December 2018

Massage for My Horse? Absolutely! The Health Benefits of Equine Sports Massage

Who doesn’t love to treat themselves to a massage, right? After those long tremendous hours of work, a good ‘ol massaging definitely release the stress and tension inside one’s body. How much more for your hard-working equine companion, surely your horse would want to enjoy the healthy benefits of the equine sports massage. 

Your horse’s body is made up over 60 percent by muscles, which means that isn’t it just right to treat your horse to an equine wellness sports massage for being one of the greatest athletes out there at the tracks? Also, it would be an appropriate way to support your companion’s well-being especially if you’re thinking of joining any competition such as the Pegasus world cup.

Not convinced yet? Then here are the health benefits of equine sports massage that your pal would surely love. 

The Range of Motion Increases

Remember that a horse that moves better is much efficient in its stride. The wear and tear on your horse’s ligaments, joints, and tendons equate on your companion’s performance life duration. There are some disciplines that rely on a big moving horse thus enhancing the stride of your horse will improve the gaits. 

Additionally, a much more efficient and longer stride in a racehorse can make a great difference in lengths at the finish line. For example, a jumper horse uses a major amount of muscle during its jumping and landing, thus a flexible horse with strong muscles is a must to land with ease. 

Improves Disposition 

Notice that horses tend to be cranky —can’t blame them if they are not feeling well, can we? Just like humans who go cranky if feeling uncomfortable, the only difference is that horses cannot communicate through words thus the irate attitude. When you feel your horse is being difficult you should first look for the reason as to why your pal is acting up. 

Treat your horse to a massage therapy, one of the great tools in a horse owner’s proverbial belt which can be used to reduce the common reasons for your pal’s reason to be grumpy.


Improves Stamina

Massage therapy is sometimes one of the ways of warming up and stretching your horse’s muscles. Due to the increased range of motion because of the equine massage, you will find your horse working again in an efficient manner that is much better than before thus improving the horse’s stamina together with its performance. 

Provides Comfort to Muscle Injuries

It is not unknown even to the humans that massage therapy helps alleviate some muscle injuries that can be acquired through muscle-straining activities. This is just the same for the horses wherein a massage helps in rehabilitation of an orthopedic problem or an actual muscle injury which reduces the swelling in return. 

Take note that you should first let your horse have the appropriate time for healing before you massage, stretch, and exercise the horse since these activities only help the process by encouraging the scar tissue to be in a better pattern. When you reduce the scar tissue, this can help in restoring the muscle’s functional ability, improving your horse’s condition and well-being. 

Improves Circulation 

Massaging your horse improves blood circulation of your companion’s body this is because massage dilates the blood vessels and increases the blood flow to the area. This means to say that increased circulation may help speed the recovery of an injured muscle tissue, restoring your horse’s mobility. 

If you can see a horse after having been massaged, the horse would actually look like it has just been to the gym since the veins will be easy to see and the coat is glossy. Because of the circulation, the elimination of the waste products in the horse’s system can be easily done. 

Enhances Performance and Gait Quality

Because of the improved disposition and stamina, as well as the horse’s range of motion due to massage therapy, the horse’s gaits and performance also benefit from this. This is one of the butterfly effects of incorporating equine sports massage into your horse’s routine.

Reduces Stress

Horses experience stress and anxiety just like we do, thus just as what massage therapy does to us, it also does its thing to our equine companions. Massage relaxes them just as it does to us since there is a sedative effect on the nervous system when muscles are rubbed, that helps with the relaxation of the horses and improves your pal’s disposition. 


Takeaway 

Horses are your companion throughout its lifetime thus it is just right to take good care of your equine pal, and if you are thinking of joining a competition together with your horse then wouldn’t be a win-win situation for the both of you if you invest and give time to the welfare of your horse? A healthy horse would surely bag you out of wins, thus you should properly take care of your horse.

Thursday, 13 December 2018

Thursday's 2YO Update (13th December)

Qatar Racing Ltd
Just the one race and significant entry going today. 

5:45 Chelmsford - 

A big, old field of fifteen two-year-olds. 

Charlie Hills has had a decent season with his juveniles. I think he has around 19 horses receive significant entries. One of those is New Queen, who was given a Listed race entry and, by all accounts, disappointed at that grade when competing at on her start at Newmarket. This Irish-bred daughter of Charm Spirit races in the silks of Qatar Racing Ltd. The mare, Air Biscuit, won three times when trained by Chris Wall, although a limited horse she did conclude her racing at Listed class (beaten a long way). 

New Queen has raced 7 times. She went well on debut at Bath when runner-up to the smart Signora Cabello. However, beaten at 4/9f second start when little went right for punters. In general, she is a consistent horse who has run well twice on the all-weather (Kempton). 

Interesting to see how she gets on returning after 40-days. A wide draw isn't ideal on a turning course. 

New Queen 14/1 8th 

Note: Wasn't fancied in the betting. A wide draw wasn't ideal. Travelled pretty when but tired rapidly in the final furlong. Interesting to see what happens next start. 

Wednesday, 12 December 2018

Wednesday's 2YO Updates (12th December)

Phoenix Thoroughbreds Limited
A few quiet days. Let's take a look at the significant entrants racing today. 

4:45 Kempton - 

Interesting to see Ed Vaughan fields a potentially smart two-year-old racing over this trip of one mile. Al Batter is a bay colt and son of Dubawi out of a four-times winning mare, Giofra, whose last nine starts were at Group/Grade 1. Her greatest success is the Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) at Newmarket. A very talented horse. Al Batter cost a fortune at the yearling sales at 1,550,000 euros. He races in the familiar silks of Phoenix Thoroughbreds Limited. Readers may remember the stable done well this season with Dubai Dominion and Magic J. 

This is just one of three horses to receive significant entries for Ed Vaughan. The other horse, which is yet to race, is called Ginger Wolverine.  A horse worth noting as we are confident it will be a winner. 

Al Batter is pretty well drawn in stall three. Priced 8/1 with bookmakers. It is always difficult to assess the chances of debutantes because they are often a law unto themselves. However, it is often the case they have ability if priced 10/1 & less SP. Especially so when priced 13/2 & less SP.  

Worth of respect. 

Al Batter 10/1 6th 

Note: Looked inexperience but ran a race full of promise. Unfortunately not placed which is a shame. On reviewing the race, Al Batter wasn't helped at all by nearly running into the back of the favourite who seemed to back peddle for some reason. Vaughan's horse pulled off heels and lost a number of lengths and most importantly its position. Annoying turn of events considering it ran on well in the closing furlong. 
   

Tuesday, 4 December 2018

Wednesday's 2YO Update (5th December)

A few quiet days - but back with a significant entry. 

3:55 Kempton - 

James Town is one of Hugo Palmer's best juveniles in the stable. This son of Gale Force Ten wasn't overly fancied on debut when beaten by a neck. Then followed up with two wins before stepping up to Group 3 and disappointing finishing last. A recent wind operation may be an answer to a problem, although there didn't seem to be an issue on those first three starts. A welterweight of 10-2 means this colt will have to be a pretty classy juvenile. Not sure if I would jump in at relatively short odds but a horse which deserves respect. 

James Town 7/2 1st 

Note: A nice performance from James Town returning after a lengthy absence and carrying over a stone more than opponents. 

Wednesday, 28 November 2018

Wednesday's 2YO Update (28th November)

A quiet couple of days. Heading back home from West Palm Beach, Florida. Will get home about 1pm on Thursday. I will post this early as a freebie. If you like the info then give us a shout via social media. As they say, in giving we receive.  

2:15 Wolverhampton - 

Interesting to see just one significant entrant racing here in the shape of Charlie Appleby's Ophelia's Dream. This homebred daughter of Dubawi is out of a talented mare (Hibaayeb) who ran fifteen times, winning on four occasions, and placed six times. A horse that won the Fillies' Mile at two (group 1), when trained by Clive Brittain. In fact, such a quality filly that all her four wins came at pattern class. She achieved the highest official rating of 114 and total prize earnings of £402,638. 

A prime draw in stall one, if starting on terms. A potentially smart filly who deserves respect on her debut. 

Ophelia's Dream 7/2 Unp 

Note: A slow start and inexperienced. A disappointing effort. Be interesting to see if this filly livens up next start. 

Friday, 23 November 2018

Friday's 2YO Update (23rd November)

Let's have a quick look at today's significant entrants. 

5:45 Kempton - 

Rae Guest is known as a good trainer of fillies. Dupioni won well on debut when landing a touch - backed from 33-1 - 16/1. This chestnut filly, a daughter of Siyouni, was relatively fancied next start when stepping up to Listed class but finished last of seven. I doubt she would have won that day but nothing much went right and then badly hampered in the closing stage put pay to any hope. Has to shoulder a win penalty which means she needs to be a decent horse to do so. 

The only significant entry on the day. 

Dupioni 4/1 4th 

Note: Ran a professional race in fourth but struggled in closing stages to shoulder the win penalty. 


Wednesday, 21 November 2018

Wednesday's 2YO Update (21st November)

Roger Charlton, Headman (2yo)
A busy day, so I will try to keep this brief. 

5:10 Kempton - 

Roger Charlton's Headman makes a return after a stylish victory on debut. This son of Kingman ran out an easy winner at Newcastle over one mile. Drops back a furlong today and has to give away seven pounds in weight. The penalties can be hard work for the best of horses. A wide draw is another negative to be considered. However, if connections have lofty dreams, they will most surely be expecting a win. 

Headman 4/9f 2nd 

Note: Time may tell Headman was beaten by a talent. It is never easy to defy these win penalties and, perhaps, unlucky to bump into another good juvenile. 

The only significantly-entered two-year-old on the day. 

I will post this now, as I don't think you will be missing too much. 

Just noticed this entrant, too (thanks, Craig).

5:40 Kempton - 

Global Spectrum. Difficult to know what to think about Gay Kelleway's debutante as most of her two-year-olds have been limited this season. This bay colt is well bred, well owned and cost 130,000 guineas at the breeze-up sales. A wide draw isn't ideal. The main interest is the price. Bookies have this horse at 22/1. It may be the case it drifts out to 50/1. Conversely, it may be backed. I will have a small each-way bet if touching huge odds on the exchanges and cross my fingers. 

Global Spectrum 16/1 1st

Note: What do we keep saying...another easy winner at huge odds. Touched 25 on the exchanges. Remember Group Horse details horses of the highest standard that win. 

Full result: Global Spectrum WINS!!!!!!!!!

All readers should thank Craig for this because I had missed it and it wouldn't have been on this page but I only added it as I had detailed Headman because it was odds-on. 

Monday, 19 November 2018

Monday's 2YO Update (19th November)

Just the one race today. 


Middleham Park Racing
I quite enjoy quiet days. 

4:00 Kempton - 

A Fillies' Novice Auction Stakes over 6f on Standard to slow going. Eleven juveniles take part in this restricted race (for horses costing £33,000 or less for yearlings bought at public sale). These races are often a very good betting medium because most punters forget their restrictive nature especially telling when a form horse against a few debutantes. 

Let's see which horse has a significant entry.

Just the sole candidate being Richard Hannon's Wedding Date. A good yearling purchase at £27,000. This Irish-bred daughter of Dandy Man has raced seven times. She ran well on debut behind a talent in James Watt. Then at Chester, ran out an easy winner by three lengths. The next four starts saw her run at a higher class. In those races, bar one contest, this bay filly ran well in defeat. Last time out, dropping back to five furlongs, she was relatively unfancied in the betting. At points on the exchange, touch huge odds. Started 8/1. I was impressed with her effort in that race. A very professional display. I'm sure most punters were put off by the win penalty. Wedding Date was unlucky to get caught in the last few strides. The winner, Leodis Dream, is a fair horse and a head defeat was nothing to be fair (unless you bet, of course).  Clifford Lee takes the ride and gets a handy three pound off her back. Interesting that Wedding Date is stepping back up to six furlong. I'd prefer her to stay at five but I imagine connections are going here rather than wait for another opportunity. A wide draw is a negative, but this shouldn't be too much of a problem. If touching each-way prices, is a decent bet. 

Wedding Date 4/1 1st

Note: I quite liked this filly. Crazy betting on the exchanges sees her drift to 10 before being backed down. Some of these layers must have money to burn. Nice performance. 

Saturday, 17 November 2018

Saturday's 2YO Update (17th November)

King Power Racing Co Ltd (Andrew Balding)
A quick run through the significant entrants. (Post after the race).

12:15 Lingfield - 

Barys has raced four times for Archie Watson. This son of Kodiac has been fancied on all starts and not beaten that far when racing from 6f - 1m. A fourth in the Convivial Maiden Stakes when beaten less than two lengths a fine effort. Watson must be a look frustrated that this bay cold is still a maiden. The blinkers have been applied for the first time. Not the best of draws in stall eight.    

Barys 2/1 1st 

Note: A very easy success for Archie Watson's horse. Unchallenged.  

1:00 Lingfield - 

Humanitarian ran well on debut for John Gosden when runner-up to stablemate Kick On. This son of Noble Mission was priced 12/1 that day, most likely in need of the run and a fraction bigger price that should have by being second string. Will start odds-on for this race. 

Humanitarian 5/6f 1st

Note: Another easy winner by 5 lengths. 

6:45 Wolverhampton - 

Interesting to see how Magic Illusion goes on this third start. Charlie Appleby's charge has made hard work of winning so far. This well-bred son of Dubawi was priced even money to make a winning debut at Ascot. Finished second best. Then failed to shine when the jolly at Newmarket, stepping up to one mile. That was a pretty stiff race but it was still a somewhat disappointing effort. Connections are stepping up to nine and a bit furlongs, so time will tell if this works. This doesn't look the strongest field and valuable experience should help. 

Magic Illusion 1/2f 3rd

Note: Just plain disappointing and the gelding operation hasn't changed too much. Just not as good as connections thought.

7:15 Wolverhampton - 

Hello Bangkok goes here for Andrew Balding and the late owner of King Power Racing Co Ltd. Park House Stables have had a topsy-turvy year with their two-year-old with outsiders winning aplenty while favourites have come undone. This bay daughter of Tamayuz ran well on debut when narrowly denied by a talented horse in Shambolic. However, punters were left feeling all at sea when this 200,000 guinea-yearling purchase flopped next start at the even-money favourite. A shocking effort in fifth beaten over ten lengths. I would draw a line through that run as it was too bad to be true. Balding is dropping this horse in distance. Difficult to know if this is a good or bad idea. I generally consider that the trainer knows best. This filly is held in some regard and the team will be hoping for more today although from a far from an ideal draw. 

Hello Bangkok 2/1 4th

Note: Gives the impression that the trainer got it wrong. The distance must have been a furlong too short although time may tell it didn't make too much difference. On review, didn't have much go right and capable of better. No match for the winner but may have a win in her this season.