Thursday, 2 May 2019

Thursday's 2yo Update (2nd May)

I'm writing this post just after sending out our first Mailing of the year. 

It's like slow motion, or it may seem that way if you are waiting for valued information. Behind the scenes, I am about the busiest person you are likely to meet with what often feels like a neverending list of things to do. 

There should never be any rush early season. Even the most dedicated trainers need time to assess their two-year-olds. 

You will notice on the mailing I detail Clive Cox's Firepower (4:55 Salisbury). It is a short price and I had second thoughts about even bothering to send it to be fair. If it wins, people think so what. If it loses they think whose this idiot who sends out favourites. Makes me smile thinking about it. Time will tell. Even if horses disappoint on debut they usually show their worth. 

There are 3 two-year-old races for Thursday. 

Interestingly, one is a Selling Stakes (1:55 Redcar). I can hear a few people thinking: what's so interesting about that. 

Understanding the best horses also means noting the worst. Those running or which were entered to run in the race are likely to be poor or limited juveniles. It is worth keeping a list of these horses who are entered to run at plating class, especially if they are debutantes from larger stables. Why? Because they often run in a maiden or stakes and because they are from an influential stable they are generally priced at short odds. They usually drift to the extreme in the betting and have little chance of winning. As with all thoughts, there are exceptions to the rule. Over the years, I have seen a few horses win at Selling grade and actually contest Group races. (I don't think any won!).

Sometimes, Selling races can make very good betting mediums. I have no great thoughts about this race. 

The only other race on the cards is the 5:45 Chelmsford. 

A four-horse race. Archie Watson has started the season exceptionally well. The betting tells the story for most, although with his success most will be priced up with little value to spare (perhaps). I have run a few studies on this trainer and he has very good stats with his debutantes priced 11/4 and less SP. 

Early season, I use a combination of information to help me make betting selections. You know, a month has passed and I have placed three bets. The first a stat bet which didn't hit the frame. A late bet on David Evans Good Vibes at Salisbury, when overpowering Archie Watson's Exclusively (who would have won without a penalty). I only bet late because she drifted to a decent price on Betfair. A lovely, big, strong filly. Then, this evening (Wednesday) I had an each-way bet on Clive Cox's Royal Ambition (5:25 Bath) only to see the beast lose third place on the nod. 

I would be very careful betting early season. Although if you know better (which you may) fill your boots. 

Thanks for your support.