2022 Mailings:

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Date sent: 2nd April - Easy Professional Gambler: 3 Top Trainer Secrets


Hi Guys,

What do you know about two-year-old horse trainers? 

Last Flat turf season (March – November) saw a myriad of two-year-old horse stables big and small. The likes of Barry Brennan, training at East Cottage Stables, Upper Lambourn, Berks with his sole recruit (Run Rabbit Run) compared to the might of Richard Hannon, who had 99 individual juvenile runners.

 

How many trainers had at least one two-year-old runner over last year’s Flat season 2021?


I’ve just counted to double check!

 

A total of 228.

 

Here are the numbers for 2yo runners from larger stables: (excluding plating horses)

 

*Trainer 2yos to race at least once from March – November (Flat season 2021)

 

Richard Hannon 99

Richard Fahey 72

Andrew Balding 65

Kevin Ryan 61

Karl Burke 59

John Gosden 56

William Haggas 55

Charlie Appleby 53

Tim Easterby 48

Tom Dascombe 38

Archie Watson 29

 

It’s interesting to consider the life, hopes and dreams of two-year-old horse trainers. Those cold winter mornings seeing horse(s) flying up the gallop. Thoughts of the winning the Brocklesby Stakes.

 

Perhaps.

 

One day a Group Horse...

 

Even the smallest yards may have their day if they just hang in there.

 

Julia Feilden comes to mind – a lovely lady I have met a few times at Great Yarmouth – who trained Spirit Of Sharja (2007), a son of Invincible Spirit, in the ownership of A. Dee. An easy debut winner at Newmarket, ridden by Mick Kinane, backed from 16/1 – 10/1, winning by two-and-a-half lengths over the flying five-furlongs. Next start winning a Listed race at Goodwood ‘readily’, then heading to Royal Ascot finishing third behind Winker Watson in the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2).

 

How long the Feilden team at Harraton Stud, Lacey’s Lane, Exning, Suffolk, Newmarket had waited for that wonderful day.

 

American horse breeder Nellie Cox, Rose Retreat Lodge, once said: ‘Every horse has its story to tell.’

 

How true are those words.

 

Reviewing last year’s two-year-olds, it becomes clear winning is far from easy.

 

We may take these moments for granted.

 

Even successful stables can fall short of lofty expectations.

 

I’m sure many gamblers think the same.

 

For example, last year, Richard Hannon achieved just seven debut winners from ninety-nine horses making their racecourse bow.

 

Understanding two-year-old horse trainers is of paramount importance. It helps appreciate where the winners start and end. The advantage of powerful stables is a wealth of information to make assessment.

 

For example, observing data for Richard Fahey, a giant sample of 1233 two-year-olds (going back to 2006). This information tells a story which needs to be understood. This primary data is akin to the trainer sitting you down in a quiet room and saying: ‘Listen to what I’m saying, this is the truth. I’m trying to help you find the answers. ’

 

Don’t let this opportunity to learn slip past.

 

Every winner and loser is, in truth, trying to help you learn. Use those losers as motivation to succeed and winners to point the way.

 

The past may help foretell the future.

 

For example, one trainer (who I can’t name) has had 370 horses race over the years and never had a two-year-old win at odds bigger than 5/1 on their second start.

 

Now, I’m not saying it’s impossible for one of this stable’s horses to win at bigger odds, but it wouldn’t fill me with much confidence betting at 8/1.

 

We are all naive until we see the truth. That may be fleeting as the future makes its own winding path.

 

At times, money talks.

 

Every stable has its way of working and that needs to be understood. Fair enough, it’s unlikely you will know every horse trainer inside and out because you simply don’t have the time. But you can learn something about a handful of your favourites which gives insight.

 

I categorize horse trainer information in a number of fields.

 

The difficulty is the need for a large enough sample to find statistically significance.

 

I use data regarding two-year-olds on their first and second start. That information helps me to get to grips with most horses. In addition, I have other information which I term ‘global statistics’ which go beyond the individual trainer. These can be particularly useful.

 

Finally, let’s take a look at three horse trainers. On paper, this information may look rather thin, however, it is powerful and succinct.

 

I hope this mailing inspires you to dig a little deeper into the data that’s waiting to be found but often neglected. It will separate you from the average gambler to go against the crowd.

 

Archie Watson -

 

Best month(s) for debut winners: Over 60% of all debut winners from April – June

 

Price of debut winners: Very unlikely to win at double-figure odds.

 

Price of winners on second start: Very unlikely to win at double-figure odds.

 

Interesting point: Has almost double the number of debut winners compared to those winning second start. Very few trainers detail such statistic showing most two-year-olds of winning ability are primed for their debut.

 

David Evans -

 

Best month(s) for debut winners: 50% of debut winners in April.

 

Price of debut winners: Has had debut winners up to 50/1 and a trainer who can pop up at a price (12/1 – 33/1). However, he isn’t the most successful of trainers with horses making their racecourse bow but they are often backed. In truth, most of his shorter priced horses are poor value (similar to many trainers).

 

Price of winners on second start: Can win at just about any price and 50/1 winners have been seen, although most winners 4/1 and less.

 

Interesting point: Very canny trainer. ‘Second string horse’ often prove best when the money comes for them.

 

Richard Hannon -

 

Best month(s) for debut winners: 74% winners from April – July.

 

Price of debut winners: Can win at speculative odds up to 33/1. In general, debutantes are terribly underpriced.

 

Price of winners on second start: Winners up to 25/1 although the majority priced 10/1 and less sp.

 

Interesting point: Another trainer who can go much better with 'second string' when a couple of debutantes/experienced take part. I've seen this happen many times at Salisbury. 

You cannot get away from doing your own research as it can detail information (angles) which are rarely used. It is like finding a seam of gold - leading to a rich vein of winners.  

This mailing is more in-depth than I originally intended. I hope the word count gives some context and insight to two-year-old horse trainers. Most horses are priced by trainer reputation – good or bad. However, it is worth remembering that any handler can train a freakishly good horse (it’s what they dream about). Data can help direct focus and for the most part foretell the future of winners and losers. However, any horse can defy the odds.

 

In truth, that’s what brings meaning to horse racing.

 

Every horse, trainer, punter has their story to tell.

 

It’s often stranger than fiction.
 

Be lucky. 
Thanks for your support.

Regards,
Jason


Sent: 25th March - What to Expect from the First Month of the Two-year-old Season


Hi Guys,

What to Expect from the First Month of the Two-year-old Season – Data & Thoughts
 

Firstly, I would like to thank you for taking the time to read this mailing.
 

The Flat Turf Season 2022 gets underway on Saturday 26th March.
 

The Brocklesby Stakes (1.15 Doncaster). The first piece of the jigsaw puzzle. It will be a long (but fleeting) season. Last year saw Chipotle, trained by Eve Johnson-Houghton prevail. This son of Havana Gold proved a star turn with four wins from nine starts, competing up to Group 1, and securing two Listed race successes, including the Redcar William Hill Two-year-old Trophy with a prize of £85,065.

Owners The Woodway 20 concluded the season with a horse with an official rating of 101 and total earnings of £139,714.
 

Not bad for a colt that cost just £4,000 as a foal and sold at the Tattersalls Autumn Horses-in-Training Sales 2021 for 210,000GNS.
 

The start of the two-year-old season is an exciting time but can be very tricky for punters. To be fair it’s a time where trainers are assessing the quality of their string and a field of debutantes can feel akin to pinning the tail on the donkey.
 

Betting on debutantes can be hard work. Very few trainers feature a first-time-out strike rate better than those of fancied horses on their second or third start. Fancied debutantes follow the maxim: ‘Easy winners or poor losers’. There is nothing more disappointing than betting on a hot favourite which falters badly. I am very careful betting early season, rather waiting for the form to settle, using selective info and using advanced data analysis.
 

However, on the other side of the coin there are always opportunities.
 

But what do we expect from the first *month of the two-year-old season from using data and thoughts?
 

*Approximately 30 days.
 

For example, last season March/April saw a total of 42 races. It’s interesting to think that 76% of winners were priced 11/2 & less SP.
 

However, there were a number of speculative priced winners including 125/1 Arboy Will, trained by John Bridger.
 

It’s hardly surprising most two-year-olds are priced by trainer reputation. The likes of Archie Watson, Mark Johnston, Richard Hannon, George Boughey, David Evans…
 

It’s interesting to view the data of how trainers fair with their debutante winners by month. You may be surprised or not that many trainers have very few debut winners beyond a month or two. For example, a large study on David Evans revealed that 50% of his debutantes won in the month of April. Half of the battle assessing the chance of debutante or thereafter is the intention of the trainer. If they have a poor strike rate with horses making their racecourse bow it is very unlikely they will win. However, any horse can defy the odds if an exceptional talent.
 

For example, last year saw Desert Dreamer, trained by Stuart Williams, who won on debut at 25/1 and proved to be a very talented filly who earned almost £100,000 in total prize earnings. When you consider from a sample of 184 debutantes he had just 5 winners (2.7%) it brings these things to light. However, you are always tempting fate to state: ‘That horse can’t win!’

 

It isn’t surprising to learn each trainer has strength and weakness. I cannot get across how important it is to appreciate where the winners start and end. In that I mean a lot of high-profile trainers simply cannot win at anything other than short odds. However, this isn’t simply about saying all large stables are the same. That’s why I would suggest you do a little bit of research to understand how each trainer works.

 

For example, Archie Watson has very few debutantes win at double-figure odds. You may be saying: ‘Well, that doesn’t tell me much.’ Perhaps not. But what it does say is if you don’t have the knowledge and facts you are at the mercy of the layer.

 

You need to empower yourself with knowledge.

 

A little bit of research can go along way. Everything I have learned has come from investigating and finding answers to questions. Get beyond the surface information which can be found by all readers of the big publications and online platforms. True, you have to put in a little bit of work but it is something that motivates you to success and those processes reinforce good practice.

 

Early season can be a challenge and I would always tread careful. The problem is finding that balance of care without missing good opportunities. You can easily get in the mode of betting too much or not enough. All these aspects can be problematic. But your knowledge and understanding should help direct your betting so it is based on reason.

 

For sure, betting on debutantes can be hard work as many of the leading trainer’s horses will be short odds. Many of those horses finishing in the first three on debut will be hot favourites second start and may offer very little value. Once again, without value there is little point in betting.

 

In truth, this season is about continued learning which is as important as finding winners. It is a progression to knowing something that helps you look in the right direction. That is of paramount importance.

 

If I had to give you a few pointers for the early season they would be:

 

  • Don’t rush to bet because early season can be tricky.

  • The Brocklesby Stakes entrants (*first declaration stage) are worth noting as they often show ability, especially those that don’t race as they are quickly forgotten. Trainers like David Evans, Brian Ellison and Stan Moore often enter their better juveniles for this race and often primed second start.

    Publication of Brocklesby Stakes First Entry Stage.
     

  • Take note that about 80% of debut winners - this first month - will be priced 11/2 & less SP. This doesn’t mean they haven’t been backed from bigger odds and that is where the value may be found.

  • Most horses are priced on the reputation of the trainer and many offer little value. However, their speculative priced horses may dictate very little hope of winning.

  • Very few trainers feature as good a strike rate with debutantes as those running second time out. Certainly, 2yo favourites (I can’t detail exact price range) have a much better win rate second or third start compared with debutantes. That initial experience is very important.

 

You may read these pointers and feel they offer limited information or it’s just what you expected to hear. I’m sure you will appreciate that trying to assess strength and weakness out of the context of a specific race(s) isn’t easy. It’s limited but it directs your thoughts and focus. Don’t let these points slip by without consideration.

 

This mailing is about learning and finding answers to questions.

 

I hope these words bring some insight or the catalyst to a journey of greater understanding of two-year-old racing.
 

I appreciate your interest in Group Horse.
 

Good luck to all.

If mailings are not opened you may be removed from the list.

Always here to help.

Be lucky. 
Thanks for your support.

Regards,
Jason

 

Sent: 24th March - Welcome to Subscribers Old & New 


Hi Guys,

Firstly, I would like to thank all old and new subscribers for your continued support.

It’s been a good while since my last mailing. In fact, I am pretty sure it was back in July/August [2021] when we detailed our 10 Dark Horses. Remember, these were all debutantes from a mix of horse trainers.

For reference, here is the list of 2yo horses I gave last year, detailing their form up to this point. This list exemplifies the difficulty of betting on debutantes and how even very talented juveniles can struggle to win, most showing ability on their second or third start, while others only show ability when returning at three.
 

10 Dark Horses 2021

New Kingdom (Charlie Appleby) 51 – 233

Laheg (Marco Botti) 210 - 

Macchiavello (Karl Burke) 453 -

Ingra Tor (Mick Channon) 9 – 121

Alvediston (William Haggas) 645 – 37

Educator (William Haggas) 021 - 1

Wanees (Charles Hills) 611 - 1

Dayman (David Loughnane) 06 – 174

Adjourn (David Simcock) 25 - 4

Space Cowboy (Richard Spencer) 011 - 3

Updated: 10/5/22 

From 31 runs we have seen 9 winners, which is a 29% strike rate. Winner SP: 1/2, 11/4, 11/2, 1/1, 10/3, 11/10, 10/1, 4/1 & 4/1.
 

I don’t detail these horses as tips although I’m sure many subscribers are interested in the potentially smart horses to bet. If you had bet on all these horses [31 bets] you would have seen total points returned 32.15. A fractional profit, 2.15, from such a blanket approach (not advisable).
 

Please remember, this isn’t a tipping service. I have no interest in making money from selling tips or being responsible for anyone's winning or losing beyond my own. If the information puts cash in your pocket then good luck to you.
 

The point of Group Horse is to have a select number of horses on your radar that could well be pattern-class prospects. I imagine one or two of these will be heading to high-class races, although I don’t think any, last year, are top-notch.
 

This year, I endeavour to send one mailing a month. There may be more if time permits. I work full-time gambling and have online businesses so if I am quiet that’s the reason.
 

I will be sending out the 10 Dark Horse Mailing in July/August. To be honest, this is the jewel in the crown of all the information I will give to you.
 

The schedule for mailings this season will be as follows:
 

March 25th: What to Expect from the First Month of the Two-year-old Season – Data & Thoughts

I’ve researched the data for the last few years of the early two-year-old season. It can be a tricky time for those who bet, debutantes aplenty, trainers big and small, hoping those winter dreams come to fruition. But what does the data say? I’ll give you the facts taking into account that any horse can defy the odds.
 

April: Easy Professional Gambler Series: 3 Top Trainer Secrets

Each trainer has strength and weakness. Here I will detail 3 in-depth reviews which give the facts about leading two-year-old trainers. Where do the winners start and end?
 

May 31st: Easy Professional Gambler Series: My Secret Gambler Diary

A review of my first 60-days of personal betting. The early season can be a tricky time to bet, fancied debutantes either easy winners or poor losers. I am very careful building a picture via form, statistics and info so it’s questionable whether there will be many bets to talk about.

Get ready for blast off!!!
 

June: Easy Professional Gambler Series: Quality Article: Psychological EdgeA Positive Tool for Success.

Can psychology improve your gambling? I will detail a number of pointers that show how the study of behaviour and mind can not only challenge your thoughts but bring insight that helps make your betting pay.

You will have never seen psychological research used in this manner before.
 

July: Easy Professional Gambler Series: My Secret Gambler Diary

An update on my thoughts, the process of betting and success and failures.
 

August: 10 Dark Horse Mailing

This is the jewel in the crown of all our mailings. We will endeavour to forward 10 top-notch debutantes who we know are held in the trainer’s highest regard. Some will be exceptional, some disappointing, but all assessed to a standard no other publication or authority would surpass.
 

September: Easy Professional Gambler Series: Quality Article: Where it all began – A 30-year journey captured in a day

I will be heading to Great Yarmouth for the Eastern Festival – 3-day meeting. A merry pilgrimage in memory of my father, Colin. Family and friends enjoy race days and nights at the Grosvenor Casino.

You hear about the highs and lows of a gambling week.
 

October: Easy Professional Gambler Series: My Secret Gambler Diary

A review of the past 90-days of bets, thoughts, processes and improvements via trial and error.
 

November: Easy Professional Gambler Series: A Conclusion of a Wonderful Year!

Every gambler needs that confidence to not only hope and dream, to hold ambitions, but to detail the truth of a professional gambling year. By the end of a long season (in truth fleeting) I will have much to tell you about the good, bad and plain ugly of a gambling year.
 

December: What Next?

Thoughts about the future…
 

I’ve detailed the timeline of mailings for this year as it will help me find the time to put pen to paper. Hopefully, you will be excited by the content because it is real, truthful and, as yet, unknown. Without doubt there is a lot of interest in gambling, the hopes of would-be professional gamblers to learn something to progress on their journey.
 

I have worked tirelessly for 30+ years to learn something.
 

It has been hard work, tiring, difficult, testing, but ultimately a journey I have enjoyed and follow with a passion. I understand your story. I don’t know all the answers to questions. In fact, I have no understanding of any other age group of horse racing beyond the two year olds.
 

Stick with your niche. Why? Because there is no need to be the jack of all trades and the master of none.
 

Your success is built on finding answers to questions.
 

I am hear to do my best for you all. It is my goal to help you become a better gambler in the field of two-year-old horse racing. Will I tell you everything I know? Sadly not. As you can understand I have to keep something for myself.
 

If you have any questions I will endeavour to answer them as honestly as I can.
 

Please respect my time as I respect yours.
 

We don’t sell tips, and please don’t ask my opinion about horses running on the day as I have a very fixed way of working and thinking. Basically, I give a little bit of knowledge to help you on your way.
 

Here’s to a good season.

BeGambleAware: 0808 8020 133 or visit their website: www.begambleaware.org
 

Bet to invest.

If mailings are not opened you may be removed from the list.

Always here to help.

Be lucky. 
Thanks for your support.

Regards,
Jason

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