Saturday, 14 April 2018

7:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (14th April)

As Cecil Gaybody once said in the film Carry On Girls: ''Bring on the girls!''

Well, to be precise, fillies of the equine version. 

An EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 21y on Standard going. This Class 5 2yo race has a field of ten juveniles, three with racecourse experience.  

Penniesfromheaven ran well on debut for Dean Ivory. This daughter Lethal Force is quite lightly built and looked very inexperienced on debut at Lingfield. She ran on pretty well when slightly awkward on the bend, running on into third behind Jungle Inthebungle and Lady Prancealot who won readily on her second start. Penniesfromheaven had been entered for a Class 2 Stakes race which adds to confidence. Well drawn in stall two may well encourage connections to lead. 

Mick Channon has been in great form with his two-year-olds this season. He mentioned they are gone back to buying typical speedy types and Izzer has already won twice. Those form lines help with assessment which is a big advantage. Knockabout Queen races in the familiar silks of Box 41 Racing syndicate. This bay daughter of Sixties Icon is a home bred. The betting is the best guide. If priced 8/1 & less SP has fair each way claims especially if backed. I would take a watching brief if weak in the market. 

Interesting to see Tom Dascombe field two fillies here to start his two-year-old campaign. Sesame looks to be the first string racing in the familiar silks of Laurence Bellman & Caroline Ingram. This daughter of Slade Power and cost 52,000 euros at the yearling sales. The eleven draw is a difficult starting point as you don't want to be slow away or pushed wide on the bend. If priced 13/2 & less SP it suggests something is expected. I would let the betting settle before getting involved just in case the draw is too much of a negative. 

The stable is represented by Polished owned by John Dance who had some nice successes with juveniles last season. This daughter of Helmet cost 41,000 euros. Another with a relatively high draw. Unless seriously backed, best watched. 

David Evans has started this juvenile season with plenty of runners and at east two winners. He is worth noting early season. The Welsh wizard has three two-year-olds entered here: Kg Courage (once raced), Go Annie Go & Frisky Dancer. 

Kg Courage wasn't fancied in the betting on debut and finished last behind Jungle Inthebungle. On form, Penniesfromheaven has a decisive advantage. Two-year-olds shouldn't be limited by one run although much more is needed. The stable can spring surprises in the betting so it is worth noting the betting. 

Go Annie Go is well drawn and worth noting in the betting. 

Frisky Dancer is the biggest of Evans in the betting at the time of writing [14/1] and daughter of Zoffany. Money is the keyword with this stable and the shortest of the three is likely to go best. 

Scott Dixon didn't have the best of two-year-old campaigns last year but a trainer who can pop up with a decent horse. Deia Glory is a bay daughter of Kyllachy out of a twice-winning mare. A 32,000G yearling purchase. She was priced 50/1 on debut and showed good pace early door before being outpaced into fifth but beaten just under four lengths. This was a Class 2 Novice Stakes with prize money of over £12,000+ to the winner. Time may tell that was a decent race. Not the easiest horse to assess because she may need to run to the line. However, if slightly in need for the run that day, could be there especially from stall one. Looks a likely lead. 

Henry Spiller's Daphinia and cheap yearling purchase at £8,000. 

One trainer who excelled last year was Archie Stevens. He can prime a debutante so it will be interesting to see how Cloud Seeding goes. This British-bred filly is a daughter of Gale Force Ten. This £31,000 yearling purchase has a wide draw in stall ten which is far from ideal. The hood has been applied. Interesting whether this is to calm or encourage. The betting at 7/1 suggests something is expected. I would let the betting settle just in case it drifts. 

Conclusion:  A large field of fillies. The betting looks pretty open so the bookies will be careful. It may well be wise to let the betting settle unless you have a strong opinion. Certainly, the form horses have the benefit of experience which counts for a lot. Penniesfromheaven and Deia Glory fit that category and well drawn. They could be sent to the front. Both have either run or been entered for Class 2 races which indicates the trainers have some hope for these juveniles. Penniesfromheaven has shown a bit of form and gave the impression better would be seen next start. The slight negative is that she was very inexperienced that day and could be the same today. A low draw could be a blessing or a problem if slow away. She isn't the strongest looking horse but against fillies shouldn't look out of place. Deia Glory may have the best form and if improving for the run could go well. Both have an equal measure of good and bad. I would take a watching brief. The betting is the best guide for Knockabout Queen, Sesame and Cloud Seeding. If priced 7/1 & less SP could go well. The latter two have to defy a bad draw which doesn't inspire. I would have to take a watching brief because this looks a tricky affair.