Wednesday, 5 September 2018

Wednesday's 2YO Update

A quick review of Wednesday's races. 

6:00 Ffos Las - 

7½f (7f80y) Weatherbys Racing Bank Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (2yo)

William Muir doesn't have the biggest string of juveniles but a capable trainer. In general, his two-year-olds are better on their second start but he can win on their racecourse bow if talented. Natty Night (20/1) was purchased at the yearling sales for 40,000 guineas by the trainer. This bay colt - a son of Nathaniel - is of interest but slightly difficult to assess. A recent Class 2 entry gives some hope.  

Another interesting horse is John Gallagher's Blue Battalion (25/1). This British-bred son of Cityscape is a relatively cheap yearling purchase at £18,000. The mare won three times and a fair horse although nothing outstanding. What's interesting for this colt, is knowledge of a recent Convivial Maiden Stakes entry. That is a sign of confidence. Another horse priced at 25/1 that may well show something on debut. If available at huge prices on the exchanges may be worth a bet. A few of Gallagher's debutantes have run well on debut and been backed. I remember Quench Dolly a few years back. Interesting. 

6:20 Wolverhampton - 

6f (6f20y) HellermannTyton Fixings Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 

A very interesting race with a number of fair juveniles. I can imagine a few of these trainers considered this to be a lesser race to target. Looks like they all had the same idea. 
 
William Haggas has Luxor (9/2) racing here who proved a disappointing favourite when struggling on debut at Windsor. This son of Oasis Dream didn't show much at all that day. It could well be the case he simply didn't show and there is much better to come. This horse is in the ownership of Highclere Thoroughbreds and cost £190,000 at the yearling sales. He held a Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) entry which adds some confidence although needs to improve for that first start. If priced 13/2 & less SP, holds fair each-way claims. 

Karl Burke is a fantastic trainer. I often say to people, if you cannot make money from their two-year-olds there is something gone wrong. Sosume (5/1) hasn't been seen for over 40 days and the hood is applied for the first time. Racing in the familiar silks of Mrs Maureen Gittins, he cost 105,000 at the breeze-up sales. Sosume ran well at Thirsk, but I was left with the feeling the jockey went a stride too fast. This step up in distance shouldn't be a problem although a wide draw isn't ideal. He has plenty enough pace so may get to the rail but that exuberance could be a slight problem. 

A race full of interest. East Coast Swing (40/1) has a number of significant entries and backed a touch on debut. This grey daughter of Exchange Rate cost 400,000 at the breeze-up sales for owners G Bolton and B Jenkins. George Scott is a difficult trainer to assess and someone whose debutantes often disappoint. On entries, ownership and price tag, this filly looks very likely to have the ability - perhaps a high level. A wide draw is a concern. You really don't want to try to get to the lead and be pushed wide. That would make life hard. However, this juvenile is very interesting and if going to show ability it should be today. 

Conclusion: A fascinating race. This looks a strong contest with a few form horses which statistically have some hope. In addition, Luxor, Sosume and East Coast Swing are very interesting. I must admit, East Coast Swing could, potentially, be a high-class horse. The debut effort was difficult to assess. She may not have shown anything but today could shine. The draw is a concern. She could still have enough ability to hit the frame but it is a difficult one. Luxor needs to improve and can. From a statistical point holds fair each-way claims. While Sosume ran ok the last start but in many ways disappointed. All three noted could hit the frame but trying to pick between the lines could be a puzzle. 

6:50 Wolverhampton -

7f (7f36y) HellermannTyton Insulation Maiden Auction Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 5) (2yo)

Comete (14/1) has been relatively fancied on both start but disappointed. Definitely not one of the better juveniles in the stable but this is a restricted race type. This filly is stepping up in distance and well drawn. 

Tom Clover gave Rajy (66/1) a Class 2 entry very early season but shown little to date. Certainly needs to improve but big question marks, too. 

I've detailed a very speculative multibet which pays over 3000/1.