Wednesday 12 September 2018

Wednesday's 2YO Update

Yesterday we pointed readers in the direction of Canton Queen and Just Be Friendly. 

Strange how the betting goes and the reason why you shouldn't think layers know best. Drifting in the betting from 9/1 - 16/1. She won well. Just Be Friendly is worth noting for the future. She was very well backed considering Bell's charge was 16/1 on Betfair early. Returned 6/1. Just Be Friendly ruined her chance, again, by being far too keen. Unless a horse is exceptional, it cannot pull over 7f. You will see this horse wins in the near future. If by some chance, she disappoints next start, this daughter of Toronado will be a near certainty if getting a weight for nursery class. Time will tell. 

Anyway, back to Wednesday. 

3:10 Carlisle - 

1m (7f173y) British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (Class 4) (2yo)

Going: Heavy 

Runners: 7 

Firstly, it is always wise to be careful about very testing going. 

Karl Burke has a decent string of two-year-olds. It helps give them a line to debutantes and Oak Park has been noted. Racing in the familiar silks of Mrs Maureen Gittins, this chestnut son of Sea The Stars is out of a debut-winning mare. She won twice in her career including Grade 3. Total prize winnings of just over £100,000. Burke can win with debutantes and this course is a real hotspot for winners. Priced at 9/4, it's difficult to assess value. A horse I respect. 

Just one other entrant. Divine Gift isn't a class horse by any stretch of the imagination. Charlie Fellows hasn't had a vintage season with his juveniles. The best being Snazzy who struck early season. Divine Gift didn't show much ability on debut. However, this son of Nathaniel showed pace next start at Sandown when holding third place. There was money for him that day from very big odds on the exchanges. It was a good race and the first two are talented juveniles. I imagine connections are stepping up in distance hoping to find further improvement. If liking the heavy ground may run a race. Doesn't look to have the potential of some others but may pick up the pieces if they fail to deliver. 

Conclusion: Oak Park is interesting. Burke has exceptional stats at this course and they keep winning so there is plenty of positives. You have to imagine Burke runs here because this horse can handle testing conditions. But over a mile, it will be a test. Any flaw in fitness will be magnified. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him win but I would rather watch and learn. Divine Gift may need others to falter to win. A watching race. 

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