Yesterday we pointed readers in the direction of Canton Queen and Just Be Friendly.
Strange how the betting goes and the reason why you shouldn't think layers know best. Drifting in the betting from 9/1 - 16/1. She won well. Just Be Friendly is worth noting for the future. She was very well backed considering Bell's charge was 16/1 on Betfair early. Returned 6/1. Just Be Friendly ruined her chance, again, by being far too keen. Unless a horse is exceptional, it cannot pull over 7f. You will see this horse wins in the near future. If by some chance, she disappoints next start, this daughter of Toronado will be a near certainty if getting a weight for nursery class. Time will tell.
Anyway, back to Wednesday.
3:10 Carlisle -
1m (7f173y) British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (Class 4) (2yo)
Going: Heavy
Runners: 7
Firstly, it is always wise to be careful about very testing going.
Karl Burke has a decent string of two-year-olds. It helps give them a line to debutantes and Oak Park has been noted. Racing in the familiar silks of Mrs Maureen Gittins, this chestnut son of Sea The Stars is out of a debut-winning mare. She won twice in her career including Grade 3. Total prize winnings of just over £100,000. Burke can win with debutantes and this course is a real hotspot for winners. Priced at 9/4, it's difficult to assess value. A horse I respect.
Just one other entrant. Divine Gift isn't a class horse by any stretch of the imagination. Charlie Fellows hasn't had a vintage season with his juveniles. The best being Snazzy who struck early season. Divine Gift didn't show much ability on debut. However, this son of Nathaniel showed pace next start at Sandown when holding third place. There was money for him that day from very big odds on the exchanges. It was a good race and the first two are talented juveniles. I imagine connections are stepping up in distance hoping to find further improvement. If liking the heavy ground may run a race. Doesn't look to have the potential of some others but may pick up the pieces if they fail to deliver.
Conclusion: Oak Park is interesting. Burke has exceptional stats at this course and they keep winning so there is plenty of positives. You have to imagine Burke runs here because this horse can handle testing conditions. But over a mile, it will be a test. Any flaw in fitness will be magnified. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him win but I would rather watch and learn. Divine Gift may need others to falter to win. A watching race.
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2:15 Carlisle -
Mark Johnston has given Seductive Moment one significant entry. A winner on debut but disappointed next start when a beaten favourite at Carlisle. Gave the impression he was ridden a stride too fast that day and folded tamely. Joe Fanning takes the ride today. A win penalty makes life hard. Always a slight concern when a horse disappoints that it may have regressed. That's enough to bring a few question marks. Interesting to see how this chestnut colt goes.
5:50 Nottingham -
Another fair horse trained by the Middleham handler. Delft Dancer is a battling type who won at this course over 5f. Not been beaten too far in all four races but clearly needs this step up in distance. Ran exceptionally well last time out at Hamilton when running on after being outpaced. A battling, if not lazy, type who will appreciated this extra furlong. Needs to defy the win penalty but been running soundly under the burden so far.
1:30 Carlisle -
Yousini made a good impression on debut. Kevin Ryan holds this colt in some regard. A Railway Stakes (Group 2) and Brian Yeardley Stakes entry detail lofty ambitions. A win penalty makes life more difficult but a fair assessment if the Irish race is to be considered.
Archie Watson is a trainer going places and his knowledge of two-year-olds is worthy of note. Rockin Roy won well on debut and he was beaten by a talented horse next start. Also, entered for the Brian Yeardley, connection must have hoped this would be the easier route. Instead, it is a tough race.
Intriguing to see Tim Easterby sends Arletta Star to contest this race. She looks a good 2yo breeze-up buy at £28,000. The reason being, she was been given a couple of significant entries, including a Listed race. This looks to be a sign of ability. Easterby can win on debut although most don't. However, his best juveniles usually run well on their racecourse bow if expected. This looks a stiff task in ways against winning, talented colts. The upside is that she gets a good weight allowance. I must admit, even if it is unlikely, bookmakers pricing her at 22/1 are probably unaware she is considered a fair type.
2:40 Brighton -
Amy Murphy must have been disappointed with Thegreatestshowman on his second start at Pontefract. He looked to go a stride too fast and that is a big mistake in competitive races. The form of his debut is decent enough. Stepping back down in distance is a good move. If settling, should run well.
Richard Hughes Kadiz come back to form after going too fast in testing conditions at Salisbury. He has some ability and deserves respect although vulnerable to a fair juvenile.
6:50 Haydock -
Cool Exhibit was a big drifter in the betting on debut but ran out an easy winner. Simon Crisford considered the Woodcote Stakes but decided to take this route. This son of Showcasing is a deep-chested colt and appealing. It is worth noting that the form of his debut win has taken a few knocks, which may have been the reason he was weak in the betting that day (connections thought it was a stronger race than it turned out to be). Has to shoulder a win penalty.
A very busy day with seven races so I'm not going crazy writing a long post.
2:10 Ripon -
Eyelool was fancied on debut but an awkward start saw him playing catch up for the rest of the race. The form looks decent enough. William Haggas must fancy this to go well. It doesn't look the strongest race.
2:20 Yarmouth -
Blonde Warrior must take some beating for Hugo Palmer. As present, this horse has no entries. The sole entrant is First Thought. He wasn't overly fancied on debut at York and finished down the field. It is something of a positive starting at this Grade 1 course so may have some hope of ability. It would give more confidence if backed.
2:30 Haydock -
No entries.
3:00 Haydock -
No entries.
5:55 Sandown -
Looks a competitive heat. Mersey has been given one entry.
6:05 Carlisle -
Another trappy affair. A few of these have shown form. Iain Jardine doesn't have too many talented two-year-olds but Samantha James ran well on debut; a race where the form looks solid. Interesting to note that Karl Burke's Little Kim was considered for the Hilary Needler Stakes at Beverley. This must be a sign of ability. A relatively wide draw and being a debutante are slight concerns. If drifting to speculative odd may be worth an each-way bet. This looks a tricky race to me and pretty competitive to be fair.
6:40 Carlisle -
Gingersdunthelot has been highly tried but looks to fall flat after three fast furlongs. Best watched.
Five two-year-old race for Monday. I will try to keep this as brief as possible because I am trying to do a million things at once.
2:05 Redcar -
Mark Johnston has been in very good form and details the only significant entry for with Aisling. This race type is restricted which usually favours proven form horses.Big Ace ran well last time out and looks a tough horse to beat. However, Johnston's daughter of Dream Ahead - a very cheap buy - has been given an entry of note so it will be interesting to see how she goes.
2:15 Carlisle -
Once again, Mark Johnston has the sole entry here with Hard Forest. A wide draw isn't ideal. She must be held in some regard by connections as received a couple of entries including a Listed race. This American-bred daughter of Hard Spun has looked a short runner but ran ok on a couple of occasions. She was readily outpointed at Yarmouth although the form of that race has been franked. Has plenty of pace so may try to get to the rail from this high draw. A slight concern about her tiring in the final furlong.
From a statistical point of view, True Mason could go very well. A wide draw isn't ideal. He ran in a decent race on debut and may have been bogged down with the mud or slightly in need of the run. The stable have been out of form which doesn't bring confidence but their fortunes will change sooner or later. Definitely one for the short list.
Cosmic Law was the more fancied of the two Fahey runners at Doncaster, where the outsider of the two prevailed. Cosmic Law was slow away from the stalls and never really involved. However, this son of No Nay Never stayed on in the closing stages without being pressed. I was quite taken with that effort and a horse who will progress. If drifting to each-way prices is worth a small bet.
6:00 Leicester -
No significant entries.
6:15 Windsor -
Quite an interesting race. Richard Hannon's Come On Leicester cost 360,000gns at the breeze-up sales and ran well when making her debut at Ascot. She has a plum draw in stall one and a recent entry for the National Stakes Listed races gives the impression this should be a stepping stone to bigger fish.Whether you want to jump in at 4/5f is the only concern. Definitely the horse to beat.
Gay Kelleway's Elieden was a bargain buy at the breeze-up sales. An excellent purchase at £4,000. Interesting to note this small filly was entered to run at selling class but also higher profile races such as the Lily Agnes, a Class 2 contest and the National Stakes Listed. She was sent off a huge price on debut at Chester. A wide draw and slow start didn't help. However, she ran very well, finding trouble in running down the straight, but finished with some verve. There is always a chance she could have been slightly flattered. Recent entries suggest connections fancy she has ability. A wide draw isn't ideal here and she wouldn't be helped by another tardy start. If starting on terms, could well hold each-way claims at 12/1. The favourite looks hard to beat so if betting you may be wiser to have a point on the favourite and Elieden and just hope the jolly has a disaster.
Richard Hughes has a number of two-year-olds. They often struggle to win but show form. Kadiz traveled well on debut but went a stride too fast and looked to hate the testing conditions at Salisbury. If back to her best, could hold claims. A wide draw isn't ideal but she should have the pace to sit handy if her rider chooses. A hood has been applied which is a slight negative.
6:45 Windsor -
Not significant entries