The Exception to the Rule


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Thursday, 24 January 2019

Betting Strategies: Betting From a Quiet Forest of Fallen Trees

Betting in the forest
Even when it seems quiet - it's not. 

Somewhere in the forest, a tree is falling. I'm pretty sure that sentence could merge into the words of philosopher George Berkeley in his work: A Treatise Concerning the Principles of Human Knowledge. His thought experiment that raises questions of observation and perception. 

I'm no philosopher. I just know about horse racing. I specifically know about two-year-old horse racing. 

The psychological question: Who am I?

Interesting to see how we describe ourselves. 

Anyway, enough about falling trees and whether they make a noise or not. I've been busy working on the forthcoming Flat turf season 2019. You know, there is a lot of preparation for the future ahead. 

You may have gathered from my January mailing that I'm working my way through a list of horse trainers. You know the names: Michael Dods, Roger Varian, Sir Michael Stoute and lots of new rookie handlers too. Every trainer has a strength and weakness. Some of these pointers can help you win money; some save money in bets that would have very little chance in paying their way. 

As I said: ''Knowledge is power.'' 

You bet it is!

What do you know? What could you tell me to make me money? How confident would you be that 5 pieces of information could show a profit come the season end? In truth, these are questions you should be asking yourself or the person you are banking on making your betting season a success.

I'm confident in my ability. It shines brightly in all I say whether spoken or written word. It shines like a diamond because I've cut and polished my knowledge to know more than most. Unless you know something exceptional I bet I know more within my niche. I don't say that to be some big-headed dick. It's just a point of reference. I studied for a degree in psychology. When it came to the final exam I went into the room confident. I had worked hard and prepared to pass the exam. Unless something quite astounding happened, I knew I had passed before I sat down. The results proved I was correct. Just imagine if you had turned up to the exam never having read a psychology book. You flicked through the pages of Psychology Today as you sat in the dentist's reception. The sound of a drill making all those negative words stand out from the page. 

You wouldn't fancy yourself to pass the exam, hey?

In fact, it would seem impossible. How could you pass? You don't understand the subject! You don't even know what psychology means. 

It's the same with betting. You aren't really betting on a horse. You are betting on the information you do or don't know. 

So, what do you know which sets you apart from the crowd? Surely, if you know what everyone else knows that is bad news?   

How can the crowd win? 

That little bloke who turned down the alley toward the quiet forest (away from the crowd) knows something you don't. He sits quietly and awaits the sound of the falling tree which you may never hear.