Sunday 6 January 2019

January's Free Mailing

Hi Guys,

Happy New Year.

I often receive emails from subscribers asking what work is undertaken over the closed season.

''Are you working like a beast?''

To be fair, I am always working to improve my knowledge. In fact, I work harder this time of year than most. My research investigates horse trainers. It is one part of the puzzle in understanding what makes a winner. It is a worthwhile endeavour because knowing how a trainer works can lead to an advantage. Most of you will know that certain trainers are very unlikely to win with two-year-old debutantes. While a few trainers have just about as much chance of winning on debut as they do the second start. The point about research is that you can find an answer to a question. Or, at least, you have more idea than not. Without knowledge, we can only guess.

I remember a quote from studying Psychology: ''Without objective testing, theories are guesses however good.''

Knowledge is power.

To be successful at gambling you need to know your niche. Find data that isn't freely available by doing a bit of digging. To make money you don't need to be the best - just a little better than most!

I can hear you saying: ''Well, what have you found?''

Well, you'd be surprised what you can find with a little bit of work. It can help you find winners and losers. They are one and the same thing these days with backers and layers plying their trade on the exchanges.

One piece of information can be like a seam of gold. It can be something you use to gain an advantage. That equates to making your betting pay.

Our focus is two-year-old horse racing. Take a random horse trainer within this niche. What do I know?

A lot.

Take Ed Dunlop... A very talented trainer. So how do his two-year-old debutantes go? What kind of price do they win on debut?

Knowledge is power.

Do you know anything about this subject? I doubt very few people could know unless they did some research. So you could only hazard a guess! What could you do with this piece of information if you knew the answer?

Make money?

At worse, feel more confident that a given horse is very unlikely to beat your selection. Now imagine if you knew all these things for every trainer. That leads to a powerful understanding.

So, what have we learned about Ed Dunlop's two-year-old debutantes? Very few are likely to win when priced over 14/1. Now, you might say: ''Well, that's no surprise!'' But the point is, did you know before I told you?

In fact, going back to over 400 debutantes he has only had one horse that won over this price (14/1). It was priced 50/1 (I wonder if any of you can tell me the fillies name?).

Make the most of your opportunities by doing your own research or you can simply rely on Group Horse to keep you informed.

Thanks for your support.