Monday 22 July 2019

6:25 Beverley Race Analysis (22nd July)

An EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 5f on good ground. 

Twelve two-year-olds take part. 

Interesting to note we have a few significantly-entered juveniles taking part. Unsurprisingly, they are at the head of the betting. 

From a betting point of view, this doesn't look the easiest of races to assess. 

Karl Burke is a fantastic trainer and all the more interesting when they field a two-year-old in the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbreds Limited. Compared with some of the horses this group own Seize The Time is a relatively cheap purchase at 120,000 Euros. Readers of Group Horse [Daily] will remember this owner/trainer duo had Kadar and Mistress Of Love winning last year for Spigot Lodge. 

This chestnut daughter of Siyouni is out of a winning mare, who was placed at Listed class. 

She has a prime draw in stall one. 

Karle Burke can win with his debutantes. The best juveniles usually win on debut. We have seen this to be true with Lord Of The Lodge, Rayong, Classy Moon & Never In Paris. 

From a betting point of view, Seize The Time [9/4], with regard to the general two-year-old trainer statistics, is likely to be underpriced. The stable has decent win and place claims when priced 13/2 & less SP. Only two debutantes have won when priced over 16/1 on debut. This covers a number of years of research. Those who take an interest on these pages will note that Seize The Time has an entry for the Lowther Stakes (Group 2). Three other horses from the stable have this potential engagement: Macho Touch, Living In The Past & Never In Paris.  

Last year, they had two horse entered for the Lowther: Little Kim and Lady In France. The former finished 5th of nine. The latter didn't race at two but won on her debut at three. 
I had intended to write about this race more fully. However, time is never on our side. 

Other significantly entered juveniles include: 

Dream Kart trained by Mark Johnston. She has received a solitary Class 2 stakes entry on Group Horse Daily detailing she is far from one of Kingsley House's better two-year-olds but a very capable filly. This daughter of Dream Ahead is a small filly, very lean but strong as a weasel. She has shown bright speed on most starts, which she will need to do here from the disadvantaged stall 10. In addition, she has to shoulder a win penalty after cruising home at Windsor. The Johnston horses continue to run well. Whether she can defy a penalty against a strongish field we will have to see. 

Stars In The Night has been entered for two Class 2 stakes races. Kevin Ryan's charge ran in one of them on debut at Newcastle. This daughter of Starspangledbanner is a nice-looking filly with size and scope. She was made favourite last time out when disappointing at 6/4f. The same race as Dream Kart ran, so they have similar claims at best. She just looked to run out of steam in the testing going at Carlisle. The fact she has been off course for over 50 days could well indicate there was an issue that day or simply given a rest and time to strengthen up after a couple of hard races. If bouncing back has claims even from a wide draw. 

Three Coins is another filly who has been tested at a higher level. She won on debut at Ripon. She started at odds of 7/1 when competing in the Hilary Needler Trophy when a disappointing 7th. Once again, this daughter of Fountain Of Youth hasn't been seen for over forty days which suggests she didn't show her running at Beverley. 

To add to the mix Michael Bell fields a filly in the ownership of Clipper Logistics called Spring Campaign. This daughter of Dandy Man cost 60,000 Euros at the yearling sales. She is out of a twice-winning mare who competed at Group class. From a betting point of view, Bell's debutantes can win at all prices and most priced 13/2 & less SP have ability. 

Conclusion: This is an intriguing but thoroughly difficult race to assess. Seize the Time is interesting but could well be underpriced from a statistical perspective. A prime draw is positive if lively from the stalls. However, to achieve the level of ability of a few of these form horses is no easy task for even a gifted horse. Dream Kart has her work cut out with a penalty, especially being so small. However, I can see her trying to lead and may well tire in the closing stages. Stars In The Night and Three Coins have proven ability but need to show their wellbeing after a disappointing display on their last start. Three Coins has to defy a win penalty, which, again, takes some doing. Spring Campaign is interesting. Bell has a few talents to judge this one's ability. In general, the stable do not feature the best strike rate on debut with their fancied juveniles. 

I would have to take a watching brief.