An EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 5f on good ground.
Twelve two-year-olds take part.
Interesting to note we have a few significantly-entered juveniles taking part. Unsurprisingly, they are at the head of the betting.
From a betting point of view, this doesn't look the easiest of races to assess.
Karl Burke is a fantastic trainer and all the more interesting when they field a two-year-old in the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbreds Limited. Compared with some of the horses this group own Seize The Time is a relatively cheap purchase at 120,000 Euros. Readers of Group Horse [Daily] will remember this owner/trainer duo had Kadar and Mistress Of Love winning last year for Spigot Lodge.
This chestnut daughter of Siyouni is out of a winning mare, who was placed at Listed class.
She has a prime draw in stall one.
Karle Burke can win with his debutantes. The best juveniles usually win on debut. We have seen this to be true with Lord Of The Lodge, Rayong, Classy Moon & Never In Paris.
From a betting point of view, Seize The Time [9/4], with regard to the general two-year-old trainer statistics, is likely to be underpriced. The stable has decent win and place claims when priced 13/2 & less SP. Only two debutantes have won when priced over 16/1 on debut. This covers a number of years of research. Those who take an interest on these pages will note that Seize The Time has an entry for the Lowther Stakes (Group 2). Three other horses from the stable have this potential engagement: Macho Touch, Living In The Past & Never In Paris.
Last year, they had two horse entered for the Lowther: Little Kim and Lady In France. The former finished 5th of nine. The latter didn't race at two but won on her debut at three.
I had intended to write about this race more fully. However, time is never on our side.
Other significantly entered juveniles include:
Dream Kart trained by Mark Johnston. She has received a solitary Class 2 stakes entry on Group Horse Daily detailing she is far from one of Kingsley House's better two-year-olds but a very capable filly. This daughter of Dream Ahead is a small filly, very lean but strong as a weasel. She has shown bright speed on most starts, which she will need to do here from the disadvantaged stall 10. In addition, she has to shoulder a win penalty after cruising home at Windsor. The Johnston horses continue to run well. Whether she can defy a penalty against a strongish field we will have to see.
Stars In The Night has been entered for two Class 2 stakes races. Kevin Ryan's charge ran in one of them on debut at Newcastle. This daughter of Starspangledbanner is a nice-looking filly with size and scope. She was made favourite last time out when disappointing at 6/4f. The same race as Dream Kart ran, so they have similar claims at best. She just looked to run out of steam in the testing going at Carlisle. The fact she has been off course for over 50 days could well indicate there was an issue that day or simply given a rest and time to strengthen up after a couple of hard races. If bouncing back has claims even from a wide draw.
Three Coins is another filly who has been tested at a higher level. She won on debut at Ripon. She started at odds of 7/1 when competing in the Hilary Needler Trophy when a disappointing 7th. Once again, this daughter of Fountain Of Youth hasn't been seen for over forty days which suggests she didn't show her running at Beverley.
To add to the mix Michael Bell fields a filly in the ownership of Clipper Logistics called Spring Campaign. This daughter of Dandy Man cost 60,000 Euros at the yearling sales. She is out of a twice-winning mare who competed at Group class. From a betting point of view, Bell's debutantes can win at all prices and most priced 13/2 & less SP have ability.
Conclusion: This is an intriguing but thoroughly difficult race to assess. Seize the Time is interesting but could well be underpriced from a statistical perspective. A prime draw is positive if lively from the stalls. However, to achieve the level of ability of a few of these form horses is no easy task for even a gifted horse. Dream Kart has her work cut out with a penalty, especially being so small. However, I can see her trying to lead and may well tire in the closing stages. Stars In The Night and Three Coins have proven ability but need to show their wellbeing after a disappointing display on their last start. Three Coins has to defy a win penalty, which, again, takes some doing. Spring Campaign is interesting. Bell has a few talents to judge this one's ability. In general, the stable do not feature the best strike rate on debut with their fancied juveniles.
I would have to take a watching brief.
Just a quick look at the significantly entered two-year-olds on Monday.
1:55 Beverley -
Just the sole entry. Dylan De Vega ran well at big odds on debut at Nottingham. This son of Poet's Voice lost by half a length but clear of the third. A recent Class 2 Stakes entry adds some promise that this colt is capable of better. Not giving much away at 5/4f.
2:50 Bath -
A restricted Auction Stakes. A couple of entrants here. Heer We Go Again ran in the Brocklesby Stakes. David Evans never lets the grass grow under his horse's feet and this son of Heeraat hasn't done much wrong in his last three starts. In fact, he has run well considering he has been quite keen. The visor has been applied, I imagine, to try help settle this March foal. Bath is a course which often benefits horses with experience and pace although the field can rattle home if the leaders go a stride too fast. Heer We Go Again sets a fair standard although offers very little value at even money. There is a chance this juvenile may regress after a few hard races.
Interesting to note that Bill Turner has a debutante with an entry. *Summer's Way is a grey daughter of Coach House out of a poor mare who didn't win a race. The sire was a decent sprinter. Summer's Way was withdrawn from the sales and, to be honest, doesn't look the most obvious hope.
Turner's Brocklesby Stakes runner, Hell Of A Joker, did little, although showed very good pace for four furlongs at Beverley second start (before fading fast).
Another stablemate Queen's Road was given a similar entry and she showed very good pace at Leicester when a 50/1 shot before fading in the final furlong.
It is half interesting Turner gave Summer's Way a significant entry and it is a course he has sent a few better juveniles. Readers may remember Little Boy Blue who went very close to winning at Bath on debut when 40/1.
Summer's Way is the type of horse you may take a chance on a speculative punt simply because she is huge odds. With an apprentice taking off a valuable 5lb, if she has got an element of ability, she will be light as a feather (almost). Also, Turner's juveniles are usually ridden positively so likely to lead, if capable, which may give the opportunity to lay your stake in running at shorter odds.
In many respects, this looks a tricky race with a few horses which may be better than they look and an unraced juvenile from Mark Johnston to add to the confusion.
* NR (Summer's Way)
A couple of quiet days.
Avid readers would have noticed that Mark Johnston's Companion (pictured) won on the nod at Great Yarmouth on Wednesday [2:00]. This bay daughter of Dark Angel battled well to the line. She was backed from 11/2 - 4/1. The interesting point for this post is that this filly had been given a class 2 entry. From our analysis, this was a significant entry, which proved to be the case.
Let's take a look at tomorrow's racing. Do we have any significantly entered two-year-olds?
1:40 Beverley -
Tim Easterby has started this Flat turf season with verve. Eight two-year-olds have raced so far and Iva Go looks to be the star of the show so far. This daughter of Ivawood was very well backed on debut (although drifted to big odds on the exchanges before the money came). I was impressed with this filly would put down a serious challenge and led the eventual winner, Exclusively, who continued a victorious early season for in-form Archie Watson. This auction stakes, by nature, is a limited race type, which often favours experienced juvenile, especially those with an element of ability. Iva Go is a decent horse at this grade and it would be a surprise if she doesn't lead these a merry dance.
2:15 Beverley -
This may be the weaker of the two divisions. Time will tell. There is one significantly-entered juvenile going here in the shape of Gracie's Girl, trained by Mick Appleby. As detailed in one of the previous posts, he is a handler who can string a surprise with debutantes and we stated although we wouldn't bet on this horse on debut we certainly wouldn't have been laying it to lose. This daughter of Heeraat was hampered leaving the stalls but ran on with some spirit to finish third at odds of 25/1. This filly looks a great yearling purchase at just £4,000 considering she is out of a fair dam in Queen's Revenge who won on debut and raced at listed class. In truth, the debut of Gracie's Girl is difficult to assess. The winner, Copacabana Dancer, made the most of his experience while the rest of the field got in each other's way or disappointed. It will be interesting to see what Gracie's Girl can do today as she should improve for that first effort.
Photo: Gareth Coote
A couple of two-year-old races at Beverley with the first division detailing a couple of two-year-olds which took part in the Brocklesby Stakes, now hoping to make their experience count at this racecourse in the East Riding of Yorkshire. The official going is described as good to firm. Stalls position on the inside rail.
2:15 Beverley -
Find Promo Codes At aceodds.com EBF Novice Auction Stakes (Div I) (Class 5) (2yo) Winner £4,033 11 runners 5f Good To Firm RTV (STALLS Inside)
Bill Turner, who has won the Brocklesby six times in recent years, failed to shine with Hell Of A Joker who finished fourteenth at odds of 10/1. This son of Hellvelyn showed pace but faded tamely in the final two furlongs. That will need to have been a disappointment for a chance to hit the frame today. Cheekpieces have been applied which suggests there may be some hope of improvement.
Mick Channon has Birkenhead making his third run. In the ownership of Channon, this son of Captain Gerrard was relatively fancied and finished in sixth place. That initial experience was hoped to be the answer when started 6/5f at Lingfield. To be fair, he ran well but could never get to grips with Archie Watson Electric Ladyland who is one of four debutantes to win in just twelve days.
From a statistical point of view, Rod Millman's Betty's Hope has fair claims. With a prime draw, this bay daughter of Anjaal ran into second place on debut at Kempton when thrashed by Lady Kermit, who looks a talented horse.
Very busy so I will just detail in a concise manner. As I have said before, all the info is here in these pages so you shouldn't need me to detail much at all, to be honest.
1:35 Beverley -
Hawthorn Rose - well thought of in Sir Michael Stoute's stable Should take some beating.
Brassica - Definitely one of the best juveniles in Sir Mark Prescott's care.
2:40 Chester -
Tom Dascombe fields Drogon who has been noted by the yard but has to defy a win penalty.
Mordred is a capable horse but found a few talented opponents so far. This turning course may help if getting to the rail. Certainly up to winning a race but always a slight concern he may regress at some point.
Lady Kinsale was entered for the Lily Agnes but limited by all accounts. Has good pace but will need a minor miracle.
6:15 Chelmsford -
Interesting.
Charlie Appleby has one of his potentially smart juveniles running today in the shape of debutante Court Poet. This son of Dubawi is well drawn and favourite to take this.
Mark Johnston's Rock Up In Style is held in some regard but doesn't look to be in the upper class. Ran a respectable race when fourth on debut.
Not a great deal of time so a quick look at Tuesday's significantly entered two-year-olds.
2:05 Beverley -
Mark Johnston has a number of talented juveniles in his string and Arctic Sound is worthy of note. This bay colt is a son of Poet's Voice. Fancied on both starts to date, he finished an admirable second on debut at Haydock and then justified joint favouritism when heading to Sandown. He has been entered for a Listed race , which is a measure of this March foal. A winner's penalty makes life tougher but if talented enough to take on higher class should go well.
I've been busy these last two days hence the lack of updates. All the information is here - so you really don't need me.
1:30 Ayr -
David O'Meara has a few fair juveniles in his string and Kuwait Station made his mark when winning at odds of 16/1 on debut at Ripon. A seemingly lacklustre effort when last of twenty-three in the Coventry Stakes Group 2.
The betting suggests this is a two-horse race.
The other major contender is Axe Axelrod who Richard Fahey gave a Gimcrack Stakes Group 2 entry. This is one of seven two-year-olds so he wasn't being too stringent although from a yard with umpteen horses it is still a sign of confidence. This American-bred son of Street Sense started his career at Hamilton when drifting in the betting to 4/6f. That four-horse race may have been a tactical affair and experience ruled. Fahey's charge looked inexperience but ran on well to finish second and looks likely to improve a good deal fro that debut.
6:10 Windsor -
A big field with no less than 13 runners for this 6f on good to firm going.
A quick rundown of the sole significant entry. Happy Odyssey drifted in the betting on her second start at Newmarket. Amy Murphy's filly was a touch keen but ran out a fair winner. The stable had felt optimistic enough to give her a Listed race entry. A hood has been fitted, which is intriguing. Most probably to try to calm any exuberance.
6:30 Beverley -
Just the one significant entry. Queen Jo Jo is trainer by Kevin Ryan who has a decent string of juveniles. This daughter of Gregorian cost 68,000G when purchased at the breeze-up sales. She was well backed on debut (10/3 - 5/2) when runner up to Que Amoro who stretch out a comfortable winner. Interesting to consider this filly is the only horse in the yard to be given a Lowther Stakes Group 2 entry. A prime draw and experience are good news for favourite backers at Beverley.
2:00 Beverley -
Victory Command has proven a smart colt winning two races from five starts, placed on three other occasions. Mark Johnston has a decent string of juveniles ad this son of War Command enjoyed a step up in distance at Beverley, leading all the way and holding the runner-up even shouldering a penalty. None of these look likely to press this juvenile unless he disappoints.
Take a look at the Group entries and see which trainers have horses you can't afford to miss. Click here to see the dark horses of racing.
1:40 Thirsk -
Iain Jardine's Samantha James ran well on debut when finishing fourth in a pretty hot race at Thirsk. The form of the race has been franked. This daughter of an Australian stallion was quite fancied next start at Carlisle, again over the minimum trip. She finished fifth, beaten three lengths. The winner is heading to Royal Ascot and those in between look fair juveniles. Connections step up in distance to six furlong because she could never quite get to grips with the leaders last time out.
In addition, Evangeline Samos made her debut in the Marygate Listed race at York. This daughter of Foxwedge started slowly and finished down the field. This race will take a lot less winning and relatively fancied in the betting.
3:05 Royal Ascot - Coventry Stakes (Group 2)
A race to enjoy.
6:10 Brighton -
Richard Hannon's horses have been running well of late. Leoube ran disappointing at York on debut after missing the break and had no chance thereafter. This daughter of Kodiac was sent off a 25/1 next start at Windsor. She showed decent pace before tiring into fifth. A fair-looking juvenile. Interesting to see how she goes over six furlong.
6:30 Beverley -
Victory Commander is going for his second win although must defy the win penalty. Interesting to see how she fares with this extended trip. Horses stepping up in distance - after sprints - can be prove to pull.
2:10 Beverley -
A Novice Stakes Div I on good going.
Nine two-year-olds take part. Deep Intrigue is the only horse with significant entries. A beaten favourite on his last two start - short odds - Johnston will be hoping this is third time lucky. This grey son of Dark Angel cost £200,000 at the yearling sales.
Read more: Mr Angry (Johnston) Derides new plans for racing
2:30 Beverley -
Nine two-year-olds entered for this Novice Stakes Div II.
No horses with significant entries.
5:15 Chepstow -
A Novice Auction Stakes over 5f 16y on good to firm going.
A restricted race type which often favours form horses.
Bill Turner's John Betjeman has run well on two starts. He seemed to enjoy the testing ground conditions on debut at Bath. He may be better with a bit of give in the going description but a horse with enough ability to go close in a race of this nature. Finley Marsh takes off a valuable 5lb. Rod Millman does well at this course.
Swan Street hasn't got an entry at this stage but not a bad looking juvenile who ran fair enough on debut at Kempton.
In addition, Whataguy is a rare two-year-old runner for Paul Nicholls. This son of Mayson ran in a competitive race on debut at Salisbury. Quite a nice looking juvenile who will improve with racing.
Stuart Kittow is a very good trainer and Mayfair Madam did little wrong when beaten a neck at Windsor. This chestnut daughter of Mayson traveled well that day even though she had unseated her rider going to the start. The form of that race is respectable for this grade with a couple franking the form.
Clive Cox has made a great start to the season with his two-year-olds. A couple look very talented. Molly Blake races in the familiar silks of Peter Ridgers. A £24,00 yearling purchase. May well be under priced after a few successes but interesting as their debutantes have decent each away claims when priced 13/2 & less SP. Even more so when 7/2 and less SP.
Read more: Clive Cox's Harry Angel returns to racecourse in the Duke Of York Stakes on Wednesday at York