Sunday, 1 March 2020

Understanding What Makes Your Favourite Horse Trainer Win

You are probably on the edge of your seat. 

One lucky reader must be saying: ''I've wanted to know the truth to this question and no one has ever come close to answering.''

''Tell me more...''

Perhaps I go a little over the top with the enthusiasm that my blog posts will be greeted. You know, or should do by now, that I enjoy making fun of myself and even though I am a grumpy old man (on occasions) I truly wish to help each and every reader learn something of value. 

I know most gamblers hate to do any work. I can understand because there is only so much time to do all this stuff. After a long, hard day grafting away to put bread on the table, do you really have the energy to think about horse trainers?

[Rebecca Curtis...vital statistics] (you beast!)  

Only you can answer this question. However, the answer is a big yes.

You may be saying: ''Why bother?''

Because it is one of the easiest ways to set yourself apart from every other gambler. I don't know the answer to this question but let's imagine. 

''What percentage of horse racing gamblers make their prediction from reading a racing publication whether real or on a digital platform?''

It must be 99.9%. 

I guess you could be the minority that just turns up at the course and waits for number 6 to wink at you!

What percentage use the most basic amount of information? You know what I am talking about - the last three races of form, perhaps a quick glimpse of the betting or simply follow a favourite tipster.

It's better than nothing - of course! However, the worry is that you are doing exactly the same as perhaps 80% of the gambling population. You may think ''So what!''. If it doesn't worry you then just carry on regardless. But it should be seen as a problem because it is logical to assume that the majority of the population don't make their gambling pay. True, there are slight variations and a little bit of your own experience that will make a difference. 

I've been working within two-year-old horse racing for 30 years. This year I decided I wanted to know more information about each and every horse trainer of two-year-olds. It was a huge undertaking and it nearly drove me mad. I love working to find new information but I started this endeavour not realising how long it would take. Some four months later the work had been completed for just about every horse trainer. It went from the likes of Sir Michael Stoute to smaller trainers such as Mark Usher. 

I can tell you something. I've been surprised by the information. It has been a revelation.

And you know what, you can do exactly the same with a little bit of work. 

I'm not talking months of toil with your nose against the grindstone. 

You could take a look at Roger Charlton and find out a few facts/figures/data and all of a sudden you know something very few people know. 

Here is one of many things you can make work for you to gain a winning edge. This is about winning and I can prove the point in very few words. 

For two-year-old horse racing, we all appreciate that certain trainers make hay while the sun shines. 

Older readers will remember Jack Berry. He had a vast string of two-year-olds and he didn't let the grass grow under their feet. He appreciated that the quicker he got the horses to the course the greater chance they had of winning. Simply because the larger horse trainers weren't in any rush and that gave Berry a couple of months to farm these early juvenile races and perhaps win 15 before others had even sent a horse to make its bow. 

Clever. 

He literally beat the opposition by out-thinking them. 

Well, each and every horse trainer has their own way of working. They buy/train different horses and have peaks and troughs. Let's consider two-year-old debutantes. When you investigate a horse trainer to an in-depth level you will realise this winning and losing isn't random. True certain trainers may have debut winners spread throughout the Flat turf season. 

However, this isn't the case for many. You may well be surprised by what you find by studying data. Because many high-profile two-year-old trainers of debutantes win over a limited number of months. In fact, you will see that a given trainer may have 70% of winning debutantes over a 3-month period of the season. This is a huge pointer. This information helps detail when their debutantes are likely to win or lose. 

Any statistic can be proved wrong. But trainers are creatures of habit and winning is often about intention. If a trainer has no interest in winning early-season because that doesn't figure in their plans, or they only run poor horses or those that need a few weeks to get fitter, then they simply fail to shine because the trainer doesn't consider a horse will prove positive. 

A very simple piece of information can help you appreciate strengths and weaknesses. 

By assessing a trainer's statistics you can understand what makes a winner while the layers or your opposing bettors don't.