2:10 Musselburgh Update

An EBF Novice Stakes over 5f on good going. 

Seven two-year-olds take part: five with racecourse experience. 

As far as significant entries go we have one horse - Deep Intrigue. Trained by Mark Johnston, this good-looking prospect has received a couple of noteworthy entries. 

This grey son of Dark Angel hasn't been seen for over a month. He started joint favourite in a Class 2 Novice Stakes race at Bath. The going was very testing that day and the time was over 10 seconds slow which illustrates it was a mud bath. There seemed to be quite a bit of confidence behind this Irish-bred colt who cost £200,000 at the yearling sales. He races in the familiar silks of Clipper Logistics. 

Much of the race, he was battling for the lead but tired in the closing furlong. It was a tough ask for a horse on debut. He may have been unsuited by the ground or just slightly in need of the run. Basically, it was similar to running over 6f. I suspect connections have given him time to get over those exertions. 

The betting suggests that punters haven't given up hope and this sounder surface is likely to be more suiting. 

From a statistical point of view, Moojim has respectable place claims. He doesn't look the biggest horse but ran well on debut behind the smart Sabre. The form of that race is still difficult to asses. Bryan Smart's youngster could well hit the frame. Disappointing there is only two places. 

Lever Park Excells for Bryan Smart

Trainers vary in the assessment of their two-year-olds. Some are too optimistic, while others are exacting to a point where you can bet with utmost confidence.

Understanding the capability of a horse is as much to do with the trainer's opinion - both need to have ability to shine. 

In that sense, identifying the best horses isn't just about the horse but the trainer. 

The intention of the trainer is pinnacle in deciding when it is likely to win. Without understanding how a trainer works will leave you frustrated and missing those elusive winners. These are just a couple of aspects which help punters realise that winner-finding is akin to finding pieces of the jigsaw puzzle. That last piece may be hiding somewhere (hopefully not down the back of the sofa). There may be a few missing but if you can read most of the word winne (just leaves you wondering the whereabouts of the letter r) which may be revealed at the finishing line.  

Bryan Smart is a trainer who I hold in very high regard. To a level where a significant entry is worth noting. In fact, I have made some good money backing his two-year-olds over the years. To be fair, Smart doesn't have a string of horses like the good, old days. He detailed just four two-year-olds of note last season. Three have raced and proven talents if not star performers. 

Excellently Poised (1064) 
Palmer (63323327)
Alfa McGuier (513170)

One juvenile who didn't make it to the racecourse last season was Lever Park. This British-bred daughter of Camacho held an entry for the Lowther Stakes (Group 2). This March foal  is out of an unraced mare and cost 52,000G at the 2yo breeze-up sales. It is another positive to see Lever Park is owned by David Armstrong. 

As said, this bay filly didn't race at two but she is likely to be held in some regard when making her debut at three. Smart's debutantes can win on their racecourse bow, especially when strong in the betting. However, they are often primed to win on their second start. This filly is worth noting.