3:35 Leicester -
Sometimes talented horses look pretty poor on debut. That was certainly the case for Clive Cox's Red Armada who didn't show much ability on debut over course and distance. Group Horse Daily detailed this son of Invincible Spirit. He wasn't disgraced but didn't set the world alight when finishing fourth of seven at odds of 14/1. I didn't know what to think second start at Ascot. Considering this colt cost 120,000 euros at the yearling sales and had been given a significant entry I hadn't lost faith but wouldn't have bet beyond a speculative poke. This April foal ran very well finishing second to Prince Eiji who is a class juvenile. He lost by half a length but clear of the third. Interesting why he hasn't been seen for a few weeks. There was a lot to like about that performance. If touching each-way prices looks a good bet to hit the frame.
Red Armada 7/2 3rd
Note: The favourite won well. Red Armada was stuck behind horses and lost place manoeuvring. Ran on with purpose but should have gone a lot closer. Only just got going at the line in third. Worth noting next start.
4:05 Leicester -
Richard Hannon has given Come On Leicester an unending list of significant entries. In fact, this bay daughter of Kodiac has received no less than eighteen. She has achieved one win from seven starts. As those entries state, she has been highly tried racing at pattern class four times. She was meant to make that five but withdrawn at Haydock when the going turned heavy. Come On Leicester has run well at Group class so this is a marked drop in class. Considering all five horses here have won before, the win penalty is negated. I would imagine Hannon has been disappointed that this 360,000 guineas breeze-up purchase hasn't won at the highest level. With a rating of 94, this looks a fine opportunity.
As always, there are no easy races. This Class 3 race details a few live wires.
Mick Channon has been in great form all season. Gospel is lightly raced. She won by a neck on debut before heading to Ireland at Listed class. A creditable run in seventh but beaten less than five lengths. Once again, one of the better fillies in the stable.
Aquarius is a big price. Michael Appleby must have had high hopes for this Irish-bred daughter of Charm Spirit won on debut. She has been outclassed since.
Come On Leicester 9/4 1st
Gospel 6/4f 2nd
Aquarius 16/1 5th
Note: Come On Leicester made the most of this drop in class and showed her class. A nice performance by a horse which drifted markedly in the betting.
6:15 Kempton -
Interesting to see one of few juveniles noted by Charlie Fellows. Thanks Be was priced 20/1 on debut at Newbury over 7f. It was a very stiff race won by Fashion's Star, trained by Roger Charlton, and detailed by Group Horse as a real superstar. This daughter of Makhadram looks a good breeze-up purchase at 65,000 guineas. Beaten less than five lengths that day. A prime draw and dropping back a furlong. Fellows is a decent trainer with a small string of two-year-olds. He usually makes the most of his chances and this filly should go well.
Thanks Be 4/1 5th
Note: Tried to make the most from a low draw by leading. Looked to hold every chance coming into the final furlong but went backwards fast as the favourite sauntered by. Probably ran it's race in 5th but a disappointing effort in ways.
1:30 Ascot -
Finoah
I'Letyouknow
Swiper
Finoah is determined but keeps getting beat. I'Letyouknow has been beaten favourite on both starts to date. Open to further improvement. Swiper finished second last time out.
1:50 Haydock -
Sparkle Roll
An expensive 750,000 yearling purchase. Strongly fancied in the betting. Gosden has a decent string of two-year-olds and they often go well when favourite.
2:05 Ascot -
Prince Eiji
Red Armada
Roger Varian's juveniles are running well and Prince Eiji is definitely one of the best in the stable. This 2,600,000 guineas yearly cost an arm and a leg and held in high regard. Debutantes are difficult to assess at times but this one could go well on his first start. An each-way price may give a little more room to play with.
Red Armada wasn't overly fancied in the betting on debut and finished fourth of six. A huge price here at 25/1. Needs to improve but not impossible. Would give greater encouragement if backed.
2:25 Haydock -
*Hidden Message
William Haggas has a decent string of juveniles and they have been running well. Hidden Message cost $150,000 at the yearling sales.
* NR
4:25 Musselburgh -
Sky Defender
Sky Defender is a very capable horse who ran well on debut at Goodwood when narrowly foiled. There must have been an issue at York when competing in the Convivial Maiden Stakes. If back to best has strong claims here.
6:15 Kempton -
Sam Cooke
Ralph Beckett's two-year-olds have been putting in some nice performances of late with a few decent winners. I actually missed Frangrant Bell who won on debut. Sam Cooke has been given a similar entry. This bay colt wasn't the most expensive at 36,000 euros but interesting from a low draw.
Artois doesn't have any significant entries but from a statistical point of view has respectable win and place claims.
6:45 Kempton -
Almufti
Albert Finney
Hugo Palmer isn't having the best of seasons with his two-year-olds. Blonde Warrior is about as good as they get. Almufti hasn't been seen for over two months. This son of Toronado has been fancied on both starts. He was far too keen last time out at Newcastle. There may have been a few problems along the way because it's a lengthy absence. Stepping up in distance so will need to settle.
Albert Finney was on our 10 Dark Horse mailing. One of few to disappoint. Two races haven't seen too much potential although relatively fancied on both starts. The 25/1 odds suggests something isn't quite happening. This homebred has the hood applied no doubt with the thought of finding the key to ability. Be nice to see this horse show a little bit more. Time will tell.
7:15 Kempton -
Imperial Charm
Dandhu
Short Skirt
Desirous
As you can see, plenty of well-entered two-year-olds going here. A fascinating race. For each-way punters, it is a shame this isn't three places. Imperial Charm and Dandhu ran in the same race at Newmarket. It was a competitive heat and there wasn't a great deal between the pair in third and fourth place respectively. The former trained by Simon Crisford is one of the stable's better two-year-olds. Dandhu is definitely in the top two of David Elsworth's youngsters. He does very well at this course. This daughter of Dandy Man is a burly type. She didn't get a very good start at Newmarket and Mosse seemed very slow to get her in contention, which cost her dear in the closing furlong. I think she would have gone close to winning. She does seem to be a little tardy from the stalls which doesn't help. Potentially this could be a problem on this turning course. I suspect she will run off the pace and maybe bigger odds in running if you bet on the exchanges.
Imperial Charm is a decent horse and I wouldn't knock her. In fact, from a low draw, she may well lead and could make valuable lengths over the likes of Dandhu. I can see Crisford instructing front-running tactics. I could be a battle with Dandhu at the line.
This is a competitive race.
Short Skirt has proven she is no slouch with three seconds to date. Eve Johnston-Houghton's charge has been beaten less than two lengths on all starts. She has cheekpieces applied and stepping up to seven furlongs for the first time.
To add to the dilemma Ralph Beckett fields Desirous. This daughter of Kingman was well fancied on debut but disappointed. The going description of good may have hidden the fact it was slow ground. The time being 5 seconds slow indicates some ease. I would imagine connections expected much better. I think this filly is well respected in the stable and could well improve on this second start.
Conclusion: Pity this race is so competitive. A few hidden dangers make it a tricky affair, especially with just six runners. I like Dandhu but there is just a little too much going on for me. I can see her touching much bigger odds in running but that will be an obstacle to overcome. Pretty sure Imperial Charm will lead and try to hang on. Short Skirt is able. While Desirous is probably much better than most imagine. A watching brief. A good few winners will come from this race so I may just hope one or two look disappointing for future bets.
Take a look at a bet we advise today
2:00 Leicester -
An EBF Novice Stakes over 7f on good to firm going.
Fume, a son of Frankel, was fancied on debut but showed little. Second start wasn't much better. Ralph Beckett is trying the tongue tie to garner improvement. Priced 16/1, it seems unlikely this colt will be heading toward the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2). The only two-year-old in the stable to receive such an entry. Has a lot to prove and would have needed to have disappointed on both starts. Stepping up to 7f may help.
Clive Cox has a few decent juveniles in his string. This may indicate that Red Armada has a fighting chance. This son of Invincible Spirit cost 120,000 euros at the yearling sales. Cox does well at Leicester. This April foal has received a Mill Reef (Group 2), which gives confidence. The stable debutantes go well at 13/2 & less SP. If strongly backed it would increase chances.
Conclusion: Red Armada is interesting and worthy of respect.