Saturday 18 May 2019

Saturday's 2yo Update (18th May)

Friday's post showed the power of not only Group Horse but analysis. 

Four two-year-olds races for Saturday. 

4:15 Newbury

A Class 2 race so all these are significantly entered. Looks a hot race with five winning debutantes and unbeaten so far. Interesting to see Wesley Wards Joker on Jack who won ''very easily'' on debut over four-and-a-half furlongs at Keeneland, America. This son of Declaration Of War will have plenty of speed to burn. 

Other winners include Well Of Wisdom, Fort Myers, Temple Of Heaven & Firepower, who we forwarding on our first mailing list. 

 An exceptionally difficult race to assess. I enjoy these contests from a purists perspective, as I would suggest you should have bet on these to win on debut rather than second time out. However, each to their own. 

The winner will have big claims when heading to Royal Ascot 2019. 

The only other significantly-entered two-year-old running today can be found in the following race:

2:10 Thirsk - 

Richard Fahey has a decent string of juveniles and a few fair winners. 

Jaunty is the sole entrant noted here. This bay daughter of Acclamation races in the familiar ownership of Cheveley Park Stud. She is out of a winning mare who raced at Group class when trained by Jeremy Noseda. This homebred is of interest as this owner/trainer partnership often go well and notably at this course. 

What do we make of Jaunty's chance here? The betting at the time of writing has this filly priced 10/1. The stable do have a few debut winners go in at big odds which is more than many handlers. They can win at 10/1. In fact, they have had over a dozen two-year-old debutantes win from 14/1 - 40/1 over the last few years (not saying how many years as I don't like to reveal too much data). If priced 13/2 & less SP would increase hopes. 

This looks a difficult race and I would need to assess the betting to appreciate the strength and weakness of the leading fancies who, at this time, don't have significant entries. It doesn't mean they won't - most will. 

To appreciate the assessment of any race brings many variables and reason why a horse may win or lose. In addition, all horses have the potential to defy the odds. 

Charlie Appleby is a trainer who can win with debut two-year-olds. You don't need me to tell you that. Although there are many high-profile trainers who you may think take all the beating when fancied in the betting which I can prove isn't the case. Althiqua is a homebred daughter of Dark Angel. From a statistical point of view has strong claims. 

This factor also applies to Archie Watson's Endless Joy. I was at Great Yarmouth with my brother when this daughter of Showcasing was sent off 4/6f. I think connections Clipper Logistics thought she would win well. This 90,000 guineas yearling purchase is a good-looking bay. She travelled like the winner for most. However, inexperience proved costly and by the time she got organised the race was lost - beaten by a couple of fair juveniles in Companion and Quiet Place. Both have been beaten since, although they are very capable horses in their own right. Endless Joy will be wiser for that first start and you will see a more vigorous ride on this occasion. 

To add to the melee we have another debutante worthy of note for James Tate. This bay daughter of More Than Ready is a recent breeze-up purchase costing 230,000 guineas. Nasaiym has been backed on the exchanges, with a few punters taking odds as big at 10/1. The betting for this stable's debutantes is often revealing. I'm not going to say the betting guide because it isn't in my interests. As with all information and understanding it doesn't just appear and that is why you keep coming back to read what we detail because it goes far and above what others detail as ''information''. 

Conclusion: A fascinating race. To understand to a higher level I would be looking at the betting closer to the off. It may give enough support to see a weakness in one of the favourites. Unless Althiqua and Endless Joy drift markedly in the betting they are the horses to beat. Nasaiym could well be a major player if certain factors come into play. Jaunty may hold claims. Richard Fahey is one trainer who can win with debutantes at big odds, which gives her some hope. 

A very intriguing race. 

3:50 Newmarket - 

Interesting to see that Richard Hannon has Willa here with a couple of Class 2 stakes race entries. A huge price here at over 30/1 on the exchanges. I imagine it is seen as their second string to Falconidea. Willa may well be second string, although Hannon's aren't beyond pulling a number at times. 

If you enjoy reading these posts then please remember that giving and receiving are a two-way road. Simply share this post because it makes a difference to why I should bother to write. I don't mean to be blunt, but I don't need to write any of these posts. I do it for those who read.