Friday's post showed the power of not only Group Horse but analysis.
Four two-year-olds races for Saturday.
4:15 Newbury
A Class 2 race so all these are significantly entered. Looks a hot race with five winning debutantes and unbeaten so far. Interesting to see Wesley Wards Joker on Jack who won ''very easily'' on debut over four-and-a-half furlongs at Keeneland, America. This son of Declaration Of War will have plenty of speed to burn.
Other winners include Well Of Wisdom, Fort Myers, Temple Of Heaven & Firepower, who we forwarding on our first mailing list.
An exceptionally difficult race to assess. I enjoy these contests from a purists perspective, as I would suggest you should have bet on these to win on debut rather than second time out. However, each to their own.
The winner will have big claims when heading to Royal Ascot 2019.
The only other significantly-entered two-year-old running today can be found in the following race:
2:10 Thirsk -
Richard Fahey has a decent string of juveniles and a few fair winners.
Jaunty is the sole entrant noted here. This bay daughter of Acclamation races in the familiar ownership of Cheveley Park Stud. She is out of a winning mare who raced at Group class when trained by Jeremy Noseda. This homebred is of interest as this owner/trainer partnership often go well and notably at this course.
What do we make of Jaunty's chance here? The betting at the time of writing has this filly priced 10/1. The stable do have a few debut winners go in at big odds which is more than many handlers. They can win at 10/1. In fact, they have had over a dozen two-year-old debutantes win from 14/1 - 40/1 over the last few years (not saying how many years as I don't like to reveal too much data). If priced 13/2 & less SP would increase hopes.
This looks a difficult race and I would need to assess the betting to appreciate the strength and weakness of the leading fancies who, at this time, don't have significant entries. It doesn't mean they won't - most will.
To appreciate the assessment of any race brings many variables and reason why a horse may win or lose. In addition, all horses have the potential to defy the odds.
Charlie Appleby is a trainer who can win with debut two-year-olds. You don't need me to tell you that. Although there are many high-profile trainers who you may think take all the beating when fancied in the betting which I can prove isn't the case. Althiqua is a homebred daughter of Dark Angel. From a statistical point of view has strong claims.
This factor also applies to Archie Watson's Endless Joy. I was at Great Yarmouth with my brother when this daughter of Showcasing was sent off 4/6f. I think connections Clipper Logistics thought she would win well. This 90,000 guineas yearling purchase is a good-looking bay. She travelled like the winner for most. However, inexperience proved costly and by the time she got organised the race was lost - beaten by a couple of fair juveniles in Companion and Quiet Place. Both have been beaten since, although they are very capable horses in their own right. Endless Joy will be wiser for that first start and you will see a more vigorous ride on this occasion.
To add to the melee we have another debutante worthy of note for James Tate. This bay daughter of More Than Ready is a recent breeze-up purchase costing 230,000 guineas. Nasaiym has been backed on the exchanges, with a few punters taking odds as big at 10/1. The betting for this stable's debutantes is often revealing. I'm not going to say the betting guide because it isn't in my interests. As with all information and understanding it doesn't just appear and that is why you keep coming back to read what we detail because it goes far and above what others detail as ''information''.
Conclusion: A fascinating race. To understand to a higher level I would be looking at the betting closer to the off. It may give enough support to see a weakness in one of the favourites. Unless Althiqua and Endless Joy drift markedly in the betting they are the horses to beat. Nasaiym could well be a major player if certain factors come into play. Jaunty may hold claims. Richard Fahey is one trainer who can win with debutantes at big odds, which gives her some hope.
A very intriguing race.
3:50 Newmarket -
Interesting to see that Richard Hannon has Willa here with a couple of Class 2 stakes race entries. A huge price here at over 30/1 on the exchanges. I imagine it is seen as their second string to Falconidea. Willa may well be second string, although Hannon's aren't beyond pulling a number at times.
If you enjoy reading these posts then please remember that giving and receiving are a two-way road. Simply share this post because it makes a difference to why I should bother to write. I don't mean to be blunt, but I don't need to write any of these posts. I do it for those who read.
Good to hear from a few readers this week. I appreciate people taking the time to give their feedback. I have detailed the entrants, horses of interest and those of statistical merit. Given the time restraint, I cannot give any more information about today's runners. I am sure this will be a pointer.
I hope this helps.
Three two-year-old races for Friday:
1:50 York -
5f Langley's Solicitors British EBF Marygate Fillies Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo)
This Class 2 race so all juveniles are significantly entered.
Never an easy race to pin down. As I often say, it isn't a good idea to limit a winning horse and there are a good few going here.
This isn't the type of race I would bet, preferring lower grade races. If hard pressed, I would side with Lady Kermit, who is very fast and likely to set the pace and could well hold any late challengers. This course should suit and the going should be to her liking. She hasn't raced on the turf, so that is a slight unknown although I don't think it will be a problem.
One horse who may have a chance at bigger odds is David Evans' Good Vibes. What do I like about this daughter of Due Diligence? She is a good-looking filly, with size and scope to improve. She was pretty keen for a couple of furlongs at Salisbury but still managed to win. May have each-way claims at 14/1.
I won't be betting on this race as it isn't appealing to me.
2:45 Newbury -
6f Starlight Raceday Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) (Class 4) (2yo)
Let's take a look at the significantly-entered two-year-olds going here.
William Haggas has his first significantly-entered two-year-old going here in the shape of Baadirr a 180,000 guinea yearling.
Richard Hannon is warming up, although winners have been hard to find. Ziggle Pops has received two entries of late, which brings some hope. This Irish-bred son of Zoffany cost 55,000 guineas at the sales.
Gypsy Rocker is worthy of note. This Irish-bred son of Slade Power cost 38,000 euros as a yearling (cost more as a foal). Interesting this chestnut colt has been entered for two class 2 stakes races. Meehan's juveniles have been few and far between this season although Top Buck ran well in the Lily Agnes and Aroha ran well on Thursday when second at Salisbury. Brian Meehan is an interesting trainer as, strangely, his speculatively-priced debutantes often run better than his fancied horses in the betting. At odds of 25/1, this juvenile isn't without some hope.
Charlie Hills makes a return with Walton Thorns, who didn't show a great deal in the Brocklesby Stakes. He was relatively fancied that day but showed little. The apprentice onboard may be a sign that there isn't too much expected but time will tell.
Readers may notice a couple of horses that do not, at this moment, have entries but worthy of note. Light Angel, trained by John Gosden, ran well of debut when a narrow loser. This son of Dark Angel isn't the biggest, but a good-looking grey colt who will take some stopping here. With valuable experience and stats which detail a big run, I would fear this youngster if betting against it.
Heaven Forfend is the first two-year-old runner for Sir Michael Stoute in the Cheveley Park Stud silks. The betting guide is helpful. About 80% of Stoute's 2yo debutantes win priced 7/1 & less sp. In fact, priced over 9/2, the win stats are pretty poor. However, it is interesting this colt is making his debut at this time, which may indicate Royal Ascot is on the cards.
5:55 Hamilton -
Keith Dalgleish has Glasvegas noted as a significant runner here. This bay colt was a narrow loser on debut at Musselburgh.
Penmellyn ran in a tough race on debut when a long way behind Lady Kermit. That was a Class 2 stakes and this could be easier. That entry may signify more is to come.
Taxiwala doesn't have any significant entries at this time but ran well on debut, a race I think will prove to be decent. From a statistical point of view, this horse is the one to beat.
As we have said so many times before - you won't find better 2yo info anywhere on the internet.
3:00 Haydock -
The first two-year-old nursery of the season. I can't say this is my favourite race type, although if I do have a fancy they usually go well. I will detail the significantly entered. Not sure if I will bother to do this for all the nursery races because those higher rated are likely to feature many. It proves the principle of Group Horse Daily that, amazingly, we detail the best horses in training. No surprise to those who follow and appreciate.
Significantly entered horses in this race.
High Horse
Finoah
Dancing Speed
Five Helmets
Ventura Bay
Leoube
Conclusion: Too many featured here to take the race seriously. I usually look for horses who haven't shown their hand in this race type in the hope they are on a good handicap mark. A couple who may have some hope, one not entered, are Leoube and Triple One, who is progressing well and must win races off 68. Time will tell.
3:30 Haydock -
Critical Data won well last time in a restricted auction race. Has to shoulder a win penalty which makes life harder. Pablo Escobarr ran well on debut when a beaten favourite to a fair juvenile in Certain Lad. Mark Johnston's charge has received a National Stakes (Group 1) entry for the big Irish race.
6:15 Newbury -
A rare entry for Henry Candy, who isn't the type of trainer to waste his time with foolish hopes. Layla's Dream has received a Class 2 entry a while back. This daughter of Assertive is a home bred for Lady Whent. The mare was a triple winer over sprint distance but a limited horse in some respects. Interesting horse. Candy can ready a debutante and it wouldn't be a surprise to see this February foal go well. On the opposite side debutantes can make you look very foolish at times.
6:45 Newbury -
A well entered and talented juvenile here in The Paddocks, trained by Richard Hannon. Finished last in the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. This son of Charm Spirit has to shoulder a win penalty. This will feel a lot easier but competitive.
David Evans has been patient with Disruptor who was meant to make a return to racing the other day but a late non runner due to going. He didn't have much go right on first and second start. Very much in need of the experience on debut when running on and pushed wide on the bend at Lingfield when a beaten favourite. I think that race was decent and the fact he started the jolly positives. There was money for this chestnut colt the other day at Chepstow so I wouldn't be writing him off. I get the impression connection are looking for slightly better ground so could be a non runner. However, a horse who should run a race if starting.
Hugo Palmer has been quiet this season and not hitting the high notes as yet. James Street was meant to run at Yarmouth the other week but withdrawn on a vet's certificate. There was a little bit of money for this son of Gale Force Ten. A 130,000G breeze up (2yo) purchase in the familiar ownership of M M Stables. They have stablemate Never Back Down, who is pretty smart and a note two-year-old for us last season.
1:20 Newbury -
Couple here given significant entries of late. Richard Hannon's Neverland Rock, a son of No Say Never, cost 480,000 euros as a yearling. In addition, Clive Cox fields Wise Counsel in the ownership of Clipper Logistics Ltd. This son of Invincible Spirit was sent through the sales but withdrawn. A big field of 16 to-year-olds should indicate the winner has a level of ability. Certainly, this pair have some interest.
1:40 Nottingham -
James Tate hasn't hit the ground running with his two-year-olds this season bar one impressive winner at Catterick. However, Autum Splendour has been noted by this Newmarket handler. This son of Dandy Man wasn't a crazy-expensive yearling purchase at £52,000. Saeed Manana often buys well so this horse could be worthy of interest. The betting suggests he is one of the favourites for this race.
Interesting that Tate has given Hard Taskmaster an entry but needs to improve a good deal on what we have seen so far.
Finoah was narrowly foiled last time out at Wolverhampton behind Sporting Chance who is seemingly held in some regard.
Langholm was all the rage on debut in the Brocklesby Stakes but failed to shine that day or more recently at Doncaster when stepping up to 6 1/2f. This drop back in distance may help but connections may be better served heading for Nursery races after this third start.
7:25 Haydock
Certain Lad is well regarded and won nicely on debut. He is earmarked for the Gain Railway Stakes (Group 2) in Ireland. A win penalty will be a fair test of this is Irish-bred son of Colodvil.
Tom Dascombe always buy a good-looking horse and it is interesting to see that Swift Justice has been given a couple of significant entries. He is a 50/1 shot and Kingscote is, presumably, riding the first string.
Not a great deal of time, so I will try to keep this to the basics.
1:50 Newbury -
A race which often pinpoints a few early season winners. Not too much to chat about with regard to significant entries. Sylvester Kirk's Wolstonbury received a Class 2 entry, which is a sign of interest. It is worth noting this son of Koidiac's price went from 40,000 Euros to 8,000G in a couple of months, which brings about some concerns. Best watched.
The betting suggests Richard Hannon's Well Done Fox has strong claims. I see he cost 225,000G at the yearling sales.
5:10 Bath -
Quite a big field of twelve runners for this Median Auction Stakes. It isn't the most restricted race.
Entrants include: Kinks ran well on debut when losing by a head to Lihou, who ran respectably in the Brocklesby Stakes.
Steph Holinshead doesn't have many two-year-olds are horsed in the stable. *Tiwwotitiz ran on in seventh place, prominent then dropped out. Needs more.
* NR