Speculative Tip

Every so often I notice a two-year-old horse I fancy to go well at big odds. These are usually from smaller stables who slip under the radar. Now, I can't guarantee they will win (I hope so as I will be betting on them too) but they have a fighting chance of making a truly memorable day. 

How many mailings? (3)

 

Example - 

The Holy Grail for most gamblers is having a tip at speculative odds with a real live chance.

That's what I endeavour to do with potentially 3 tips this new Flat turf season. 

As I stated on the Pro Tip page, giving tips really is a thankless task and not something I do with relish. 

What's interesting is how many speculative-priced horses win each two-year-old season. I wonder if you have any idea about this data? I've researched this matter and appreciate the good and bad of trying to find a winner at huge odds. 

Also, when is the most likely time a two-year-old wins at speculative odds, and which trainers excel?

Unsurprisingly, most big-priced winners do so in their first three starts. 

Compared to the number of winners throughout a two-year-old season, horses priced 20/1+ are few and far between. 

With regard to horse trainer performance and individuals, there really is a limited number of handlers who can win a such big odds. 

The interesting point here is that unless you know which trainers excel or not you'll struggle to pinpoint much at all. 

One thing I want to underline, there is seemingly no logic to whether smaller or larger trainers win at speculative prices. 

Logic would tell you that the smaller stables are most likely. 

To a point this is correct but far from the full picture.

This is the trouble with a lack of data. As I often say regarding statistical research: Without objective testing, theories are only guesses however good. 

You will be pleased to know I have all the data for each and every horse trainer, when they are most likely to win and more.

Are you ready for a speculative tip?