Showing posts with label Humanitarian. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Humanitarian. Show all posts

Saturday, 17 November 2018

Saturday's 2YO Update (17th November)


A quick run through the significant entrants. (Post after the race).

12:15 Lingfield - 

Barys has raced four times for Archie Watson. This son of Kodiac has been fancied on all starts and not beaten that far when racing from 6f - 1m. A fourth in the Convivial Maiden Stakes when beaten less than two lengths a fine effort. Watson must be a look frustrated that this bay cold is still a maiden. The blinkers have been applied for the first time. Not the best of draws in stall eight.    

Barys 2/1 1st 

Note: A very easy success for Archie Watson's horse. Unchallenged.  

1:00 Lingfield - 

Humanitarian ran well on debut for John Gosden when runner-up to stablemate Kick On. This son of Noble Mission was priced 12/1 that day, most likely in need of the run and a fraction bigger price that should have by being second string. Will start odds-on for this race. 

Humanitarian 5/6f 1st

Note: Another easy winner by 5 lengths. 

6:45 Wolverhampton - 

Interesting to see how Magic Illusion goes on this third start. Charlie Appleby's charge has made hard work of winning so far. This well-bred son of Dubawi was priced even money to make a winning debut at Ascot. Finished second best. Then failed to shine when the jolly at Newmarket, stepping up to one mile. That was a pretty stiff race but it was still a somewhat disappointing effort. Connections are stepping up to nine and a bit furlongs, so time will tell if this works. This doesn't look the strongest field and valuable experience should help. 

Magic Illusion 1/2f 3rd

Note: Just plain disappointing and the gelding operation hasn't changed too much. Just not as good as connections thought.

7:15 Wolverhampton - 

Hello Bangkok goes here for Andrew Balding and the late owner of King Power Racing Co Ltd. Park House Stables have had a topsy-turvy year with their two-year-old with outsiders winning aplenty while favourites have come undone. This bay daughter of Tamayuz ran well on debut when narrowly denied by a talented horse in Shambolic. However, punters were left feeling all at sea when this 200,000 guinea-yearling purchase flopped next start at the even-money favourite. A shocking effort in fifth beaten over ten lengths. I would draw a line through that run as it was too bad to be true. Balding is dropping this horse in distance. Difficult to know if this is a good or bad idea. I generally consider that the trainer knows best. This filly is held in some regard and the team will be hoping for more today although from a far from an ideal draw. 

Hello Bangkok 2/1 4th

Note: Gives the impression that the trainer got it wrong. The distance must have been a furlong too short although time may tell it didn't make too much difference. On review, didn't have much go right and capable of better. No match for the winner but may have a win in her this season. 

Thursday, 27 September 2018

Thursday's 2YO Update


A decent day yesterday with most significant juveniles either winning or placed. 

Let's take a look at Thursday's races:

1:50 Newmarket - 

A giant field of 19 two-year-olds. Must be one of the biggest fields seen all year. 

A few of these have been noted.

Charlie Appleby's Magical Illusion returns are being beaten on debut. This son of Dubawi was sent off even-money favourite and finished fourth. I was left with the feeling connections were disappointed. The cheek pieces have been applied and stepping up to one mile may help. A well-entered horse who has valuable experience. The form of that first race has been franked, too. 

A good few are significantly entered - so this will be a tough race to assess and win. 

John Gosden has Kick On ran on well over seven furlongs after a slow start. This extra furlong will help. 

The stable also fields Humanitarian who cost $200,000 at the yearling sales. 

The fortunes of Martyn Meade read like a tale of rags to riches, when you consider many years ago he had to settle for horses at the bottom of the barrel. That isn't the case these days and he is a gifted trainer who knows how to make the most of his horse's ability. Fox Vardy is just one of three two-year-olds to receive a significant entry this season. This son of Frankel is unlikely to be up to the lofty standards of Advertise or Confiding but, nonetheless, interesting. He was a couple of lengths behind Bangkok but far from disgraced and priced at a point which may suggest he needed the run. A step up in distance will help. A big price at 28/1. May have each-way claims. 

A huge priced debutante is Battle Of Waterloo. This son of Big Bad Bob cost £30,000 when purchased at the breeze-up sales. He has been given a class 2 stakes race entry a long time ago but nothing since. John Ryan can spring a surprise so nothing is impossible although this 100/1 shot needs to have hidden depths to shine here. 

Conclusion: A few entrants here which make it a touch difficult to assess. Magical Illusion is well respected and could well spring back to life after a fair but disappointing debut. John Gosden has Kick On & Humanitarian going. Both have claims. The betting is the best guide for the latter. Fox Vardy is one of few horses entered by Martyn Meade which adds to confidence. He will be a bigger price after being beaten by Bangkok. May have each-way claims at big odds. Magical Illusion, Kick On & Fox Vardy are of most interest. 

Kick On 11/2 1st 
Humantirian 12/1 2nd 
Magic Illusion 11/4 5th 
Fox Vardy 20/1 Unp
Battle Of Waterloo 150/1 Unp 

7:15 Kempton - 

John Gosden has a few significantly entered two-year-olds going today and Buffalo River makes his third start after suffering two defeats. A narrow loss on debut and then third behind Royal Marine. That horse is a talent. The form of that contest has been franked by an effortless victory of Gosden's Turgenev. Odds-on for this, but looks a very difficult horse to beat. If drifting to a bigger price would be worth a bet. 

Buffalo River 2/9f 2nd 

7:45 Kempton - 

A tough-looking race with a few talented two-year-olds. 

San Donato has run well on all three starts and managed a short-head win after dropping in class after Listed race defeat. A battling type who has to defy a win penalty, which seems to be a problem for many juveniles this season. 

Converter is another juvenile who has to shoulder that burden. Mick Channon's charge won well on debut at big odds. Noted on our 10 Dark Horse Mailing. He stepped up in class next start but struggled with a classier group of horses. Perhaps he disappointed? Connections will be hoping that is the case. Not best drawn which doesn't help. 

The other significant entrant is Richard Hannon's Hua Hin who won on debut but failed to shine at all next start at Bath. A wind operation has been undertaken and a tongue tie. Clearly, there has been an issue with this horse. A wide draw is negative. 

Conclusion: Most of these have to shoulder a win penalty. Interested to see if Converter can bounce back but I would have to take a watching brief. 

San Donato 4/9f 1st 
Converter 8/1 2nd 
Hua Hin 33/1 5th