Saturday's 2YO Update (10th November)

Every good thing comes to an end and this is the final day of the Group Horse Daily Promotion. Future posts will be retrospective (i.e written about what happened). Hope you have enjoyed the experience. 

Let's take a look at today's race action.

12:20 Doncaster -

Night Secret has received a single Class 2 entry for William Haggas. It details a horse of interest but far from the better juveniles in the stable.  Ran ok on debut but disappointed (most likely ran race) next start at Newmarket. Has a fighting chance. 

Clive Cox has a few decent sorts in his string. Unless *Eligible has disappointed on both starts to date he looks a limited son of Dark Angel. The significant entry may have been a mistake. This Irish-bred cost a pretty penny at 130,000 G at the yearling sales (cost more at foal). Ninth on debut.  Even worse at Newmarket. Priced 28/1, but really needs a stick of dynamite up its ass. If is it has ability, connections are likely to be focusing on the nursery route. Dropping back in trip. Struggled to go the pace last time over 7f. Best watched. 

Night Secret 7/2 2nd 

Note: Eligible a non-runner. Night Secret ran well in second but not the class of the runaway winner Dazzling Dan. 

12:55 Doncaster - 

One of just a couple of two-year-olds James Bethell gave significant entries to this year. He is a very talented trainer who could do with some ammunition. Good to see Edgewood is in the ownership of David Armstrong, who could transform this stable as a loyal patron. This bay colt is a son of Garswood. This horse was nibbled at in the betting on debut at Leicester but relatively unfancied. Interesting that Jamie Spencer was onboard that day. The way this February foal ran, he needed the experience. There was significant money for Edgewood on his second start at Redcar. Once again, he took an age to get going - crawling back ground at the line to lose by a neck. You have to slightly question this drop back to 6f. Perhaps the trainer knows best? 

Edgewood 5/1 1st

Note: Edgewood coped with the drop in distance in a tight finish. Nice to see this colt get his head in front. 

5:00 Chelmsford - 

Charlie Appleby has done pretty well this season with his two-year-olds. True Belief with start at prohibitive odds. This Irish-bred son of Excelebration cost £95,000 at the yearling sales. Ran well enough when a beaten favourite on debut at York. Flopped the second start when contesting the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom. He was fancied to go well that day but finished last. Was slow away and then much too keen. There must have been an issue to have been off course such a long time unless he was given time to strengthen up with a winter campaign in mind. Worthy of respect. 

Interesting to see John Ryan's Battle Of Waterloo. Well, I say that although I am slightly fed up writing about this horse considering I was writing like Oscar Wilde when this beast was a non-runner when withdrawn at Newmarket due to soft ground. I really should cut and paste from the last post! (Joke). I never lack words about horses. Didn't do much on debut, perhaps showing a little bit of ability for a fleeting moment. Then, back like money was going out of fashion at Yarmouth. I don't know what was going on there. Ciaran Fallon (appreciate) either went much too fast or the horse ran off with gusto. Either way, it was there one moment and gone the next - tailed off. Interesting to see what might happen today but I'd take a watching brief. The only hope could be betting at 16/1+ and hope another gambler ensues. However, you may be wiser to just watch and learn. 

Battle Of Waterloo 10/1 1st
True Belief 4/5f 5th 

Note: What can I say? Even when I question the info it goes and wins easily at huge odds [16/1 early]. It really doesn't get any better than this. True Belief drifted in the betting and may have gone a touch too fast and paid the price. No more info coming on this page, so if you want to know the real talents contact me jason@professionalgamblers.co.uk 
  

5:30 Chelmsford - 

Mark Johnston fields Massam who has won twice in six starts. This son of Dubawi put in two wins and then stepped up to Group 3 [relatively fancied] but finished last. A fair juvenile with an official rating of 95 and total earning over £20,000.  

Massam 6/4 2nd

Note: Massam led for all the way but couldn't hold off the late finish of Spanish Mission. 

Thanks for all your support (but that's it for Group Horse - all future posts will be retrospective).

Friday's 2YO Update (2nd November)

Well, we saw a really smart debut from Headman on Thursday. Roger Charlton has a few exciting prospects for next year and this horse and Fashion's Star were both identified by Group Horse before they set hoof on track. I know what some of you are saying: ''Well how many horses have been noted for Charlton all season?'' Just four!

The other two being Momkin and Catan who have both won and classy, too.

If you struggle to find valuable information that actually helps you to beat the bookies then the answer my friends is here. 

Enough chewing the cud. 

12:30 Newmarket - 

*Battle Of Waterloo is the only significant entry here. John Ryan's gelding was a huge price on debut. I thought he showed a little bit of promise before dropping out of contention in a stiff race. He was exceptionally well backed next start at Yarmouth. I wasn't sure what was going in that day! Apprentice, Cieren Fallon, was on board. There is little doubt the horse ran much too keenly. I'm not sure if the jockey meant to go a crazy pace or the horse simply took off. Battle Of Waterloo was leading one moment and tailed off the next. Perhaps connections fancied their chance and it all went wrong. The only point of interest today is that this son of Big Bad Bob is 33/1. It is probably a bonus that Tom Queally is perched on top. In truth, you wouldn't hold your breath that anything much is going to happen. However, we should, hopefully, see what this gelding can do (if he's not too keen).

*NR

Monday's 2YO Update (15th October)

A lot of races for a Monday. 

2:40 Windsor - [Abandoned]

Richard Hannon's K Club won well on debut and run creditably on all five starts to date. Has to defy the win penalty. 

Interesting to see how Venture goes. This son of Showcasing was an expensive yearling at 230,000 euros. This April foal didn't achieve a great deal over course and distance. He finished sixth, beaten a similar number of lengths. Without question, improvement is needed. It's possible he simply disappointed that day. This is one of thirteen juveniles Cox has detailed as having ability. The majority have run well if not won. Red Armada is similarly entered. Readers may recall that he ran no race on debut but went very close second start at big odds. Being off course such a long time suggests there may have been a problem. Maybe worth an each-way bet if odds allow.

3:00 Yarmouth - 

John Ryan goes well at this course. His two-year-old string has been limited this season and few of note. Battle Of Waterloo is one of just a trio of juvenile noted by the trainer. To be fair, all have been disappointing. This Irish-bred gelding is a son of Big Bad Bob in the ownership of Gerry McGladdery who is a loyal patron. Battle Of Waterloo made his debut at Newmarket over one mile. Although 150/1, he did show promise, travelling well for a long way, before tiring in the closing stages. Not the easiest horse to assess but could have a chance at 66/1 [tissue price] opened 33/1 with a couple of bookmakers.  

Tell William is trained by Marcus Tregoning. He is a capable handler although limited in numbers with two-year-olds. This son of Invincible Spirit wasn't overly fancied in the betting on debut but not disgraced. Interesting that he is just one of two horses entered for a Class 2 race. The other horse will a similar tag, Strindberg, was well backed second start and finished fourth. Tell William has something to prove but could show more today.


Tell William 12/1 9th 

Battle Of Waterloo 9/2 Unp

Note: Battle Of Waterloo was exceptionally well backed but faded tamely after setting a frantic pace. Tell William done little. 

Thursday's 2YO Update

A decent day yesterday with most significant juveniles either winning or placed. 

Let's take a look at Thursday's races:

1:50 Newmarket - 

A giant field of 19 two-year-olds. Must be one of the biggest fields seen all year. 

A few of these have been noted.

Charlie Appleby's Magical Illusion returns are being beaten on debut. This son of Dubawi was sent off even-money favourite and finished fourth. I was left with the feeling connections were disappointed. The cheek pieces have been applied and stepping up to one mile may help. A well-entered horse who has valuable experience. The form of that first race has been franked, too. 

A good few are significantly entered - so this will be a tough race to assess and win. 

John Gosden has Kick On ran on well over seven furlongs after a slow start. This extra furlong will help. 

The stable also fields Humanitarian who cost $200,000 at the yearling sales. 

The fortunes of Martyn Meade read like a tale of rags to riches, when you consider many years ago he had to settle for horses at the bottom of the barrel. That isn't the case these days and he is a gifted trainer who knows how to make the most of his horse's ability. Fox Vardy is just one of three two-year-olds to receive a significant entry this season. This son of Frankel is unlikely to be up to the lofty standards of Advertise or Confiding but, nonetheless, interesting. He was a couple of lengths behind Bangkok but far from disgraced and priced at a point which may suggest he needed the run. A step up in distance will help. A big price at 28/1. May have each-way claims. 

A huge priced debutante is Battle Of Waterloo. This son of Big Bad Bob cost £30,000 when purchased at the breeze-up sales. He has been given a class 2 stakes race entry a long time ago but nothing since. John Ryan can spring a surprise so nothing is impossible although this 100/1 shot needs to have hidden depths to shine here. 

Conclusion: A few entrants here which make it a touch difficult to assess. Magical Illusion is well respected and could well spring back to life after a fair but disappointing debut. John Gosden has Kick On & Humanitarian going. Both have claims. The betting is the best guide for the latter. Fox Vardy is one of few horses entered by Martyn Meade which adds to confidence. He will be a bigger price after being beaten by Bangkok. May have each-way claims at big odds. Magical Illusion, Kick On & Fox Vardy are of most interest. 

Kick On 11/2 1st 
Humantirian 12/1 2nd 
Magic Illusion 11/4 5th 
Fox Vardy 20/1 Unp
Battle Of Waterloo 150/1 Unp 

7:15 Kempton - 

John Gosden has a few significantly entered two-year-olds going today and Buffalo River makes his third start after suffering two defeats. A narrow loss on debut and then third behind Royal Marine. That horse is a talent. The form of that contest has been franked by an effortless victory of Gosden's Turgenev. Odds-on for this, but looks a very difficult horse to beat. If drifting to a bigger price would be worth a bet. 

Buffalo River 2/9f 2nd 

7:45 Kempton - 

A tough-looking race with a few talented two-year-olds. 

San Donato has run well on all three starts and managed a short-head win after dropping in class after Listed race defeat. A battling type who has to defy a win penalty, which seems to be a problem for many juveniles this season. 

Converter is another juvenile who has to shoulder that burden. Mick Channon's charge won well on debut at big odds. Noted on our 10 Dark Horse Mailing. He stepped up in class next start but struggled with a classier group of horses. Perhaps he disappointed? Connections will be hoping that is the case. Not best drawn which doesn't help. 

The other significant entrant is Richard Hannon's Hua Hin who won on debut but failed to shine at all next start at Bath. A wind operation has been undertaken and a tongue tie. Clearly, there has been an issue with this horse. A wide draw is negative. 

Conclusion: Most of these have to shoulder a win penalty. Interested to see if Converter can bounce back but I would have to take a watching brief. 

San Donato 4/9f 1st 
Converter 8/1 2nd 
Hua Hin 33/1 5th