Thursday, 12 April 2018

5:45 Chelmsford (12th April) Harperelle for Karl Burke

Karl Burke
A Fillies Novice Auction Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f on Standard going. 

Seven two-year-olds takes part: three with race experience and a quartet of newbies. 

These restricted race types often go to form horses of which a couple here have shown ability on their racecourse bow. 

Karl Burke is a trainer worthy of note, especially with two-year-olds on their second start. *Harperelle didn't seem to be fancied on debut at Newcastle, starting at odds of 16/1. In truth, there was a little bit of money for this daughter of Burwaaz who opened at 20/1. This chestnut filly looks an inspired yearling purchased at £4,800. Her debut was made in a Class 2 race worth over £12,000, which suggests it was a better race than not. By all accounts, this is a drop in class. From a statistical point of view, Harperelle has very good claims. 

There could be opposition with Lady Prancealot, trained by David Evans. He has started this two-year-old season with some fire. This bay daughter of Sir Prancealot cost just 9,500 euros at the yearling sales. A couple of bargain buys if I have ever seen them. This February foal made her debut at Lingfield at Auction level. She was just held by a short head, runner-up to Mick Channon's Jungle Inthebungle who started at 6/4f. Certainly, Channon's winner is held is some regard. David Evans has a decent string of juveniles and he doesn't let the grass grow under his feet. A wide draw is a slight negative. Interesting to see how these two fair in the betting. 

Evans is also represented by Blasim. This daughter of Kodiac cost 16,000 euros. Looks to be second string. Unless seriously backed, best watched.  

The other juvenile with racecourse experience is Dean Ivory's Sandy Heartbeat. This daughter of Compton Place cost just £7,000 at the yearling sales. Owners, It's Your Lucky Day, will be hoping for more after their filly finish 7th in the same race as Lady Prancealot. Never competitive, and needing to find more. 

The best of the unraced horses is Piccothepack. This daughter of Piccolo cost £4,500 at the yearling sales. Richard Fahey has started the season well with one juvenile success in Mr Buttons. He is a trainer who can hot the mark with debutantes. Interesting to see Silvestre De Sousa booked to ride. To be fair, this March foal will need to be pretty smart to beat the two leading lights here. 

Ron Harris is a capable trainer. A few of his horses have run well on debut although most are limited. Thegraveytrain cost £3,500 at the yearling sales. Best watched.

Daniel Kubler can spring a surprise, especially with horses owned by Mr & Mrs G Middlebrook. Chitra is a daughter of Sea The Moon. This home bred went through the sales for 10,000G. Would bring more confidence if backed. 

Conclusion: A restricted race type and selection of cheap purchases. These race types usually go to form horses. I would be surprised if this didn't go to Harperelle or Lady Prancealot. Both ran fine races on debut. The former is likely to be odds-on, which doesn't offer much value.  

* NR: Harperelle