The Exception to the Rule


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Friday, 10 August 2018

Friday's 2YO Update - 10 Dark Horses

Phoenix Thoroughbred Ltd
A lot of two-year-old race and a few horses which are worthy of note. 

I think we have three which feature on our 10 Dark Horse mailing. You will notice a few other significantly entered horses are running. I will simply detail the races of most interest. I will do my best to point you in the right direction. These are general pointers being so in advance of the race. When I bet, I use information right up to the race. Whether you wish to use this information to bet or not is your decision. 

5:25 Newmarket - 

A few of these are noted by trainers as talents. Andrew Balding's Firelight is a decent filly although I am always slightly fearful of horses shouldering a win penalty. Interesting to consider the chances of Michael Bell's Lady Aria. This daughter of Kodiac is considered quite favourably. Bell's best debutantes are usually well found in the betting but he does have a few that win at big odds. This filly is priced 14/1. Looks a pretty tough race in many respects but a horse who could make into a decent juvenile. 

6:15 Haydock - 

We have one of our 10 Dark Horses running here. *Kadar, trained by Karl Burke, is certainly worthy of note and with eight horses could well prove a fair bet for each-way backers. This son of Scat Daddy is in the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbred Ltd and 700,000 euro breeze-up purchase. This juvenile is definitely one of the best in Spigot Lodge. There is always a fear that debutantes will disappoint due to inexperience, lack of fitness or trainer unwilling to give their best prospects a hard race. However, this February foal is very interesting. John Gosden's Beatboxer is well respected in the yard and won in tidy fashion on debut. That experience is worth a lot from a horse which has proven ability. Once again, defying a win penalty is no easy task against decent opposition. 

*NR

6:35 Newmarket - 

Another two-year-old on our 10 Dark Horse list. Albert Finney is relatively fancied in the betting over this 7f trip. This home bred son of Kingman is owned by Rachel Hood. The stable debutantes often go well when priced 13/2 & less SP. They often go significantly well when priced 5/2 & less SP. A few of their debutantes disappoint. That is always the trouble with betting horses making their racecourse bow. Just about every trainer has better statistics with fancied two-year-olds on their second start. It's a fact. Still, an interesting juvenile if fancied in the market. Andrew Balding's Bye Bye Hong Kong could well be a danger and a horse worth following if not winning today. Their two-year-olds are often very good bets second start. This American-bred colt is a son of Street Sense and cost 575,000 guineas in the ownership of King Power Racing Co Ltd. You can pretty much guarantee this horse has ability. Strangely, the majority of Balding's debut winners are priced 7/1 & less SP. 

6:50 Haydock - 

Another of our 10 Dark Horses taking part in this 7f event. Commanding Officer is priced 14/1. This son of Poet's Voice wasn't overly fancied on debut when priced 10/1 and finished fourth beaten a good few lengths.He took at keen hold at York and should be more settled on this second start. It wouldn't surprise me if this colt is backed, so it could be a good move to bet early. Once again, there are a few talents in opposition such as *Motafaawit who has run well on two starts to date for Richard Hannon. A win penalty is a test at short odds, even for a talented juvenile.  

*NR

Most interesting:

6:15 Haydock - Kadar
6:35 Newmarket - Albert Finney, Bye Bye Hong Kong
6:50 Haydock - Commanding Officer

Good luck.