Wednesday's 2YO Update (10th October)

1:30 Nottingham - 

Aluqair has been noted by Simon Crisford. A recent Class 2 entry brings some confidence. This son of Kodiac cost £48,00 at the breeze-up sales. 

Aluqair 6/1 4th 

Note: A nice introduction.

2:30 Nottingham - 

Michael Bell has seen a few decent two-year-olds come to hand this season. Eagles By Day is owned by Clipper Logistics and cost 125,000 guineas at the yearling sales. Probably a fair sign to have Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Bell isn't the easiest trainer to assess with debutantes. The best can win at the first time of asking. However, they can vary from one extreme to the other. Babbo's Bell is an example. Looked to be coming for money but drifted markedly in the betting and was in need of the run. With any juvenile making its racecourse bow at this time of the year, they may be in need of experience or the run. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less SP would bring more hope. 

Eagles By Day 7/1 2nd 

Note: Note: A big drifter on the exchanges but a bit of money late. Ran a very nice race in second. A fair juvenile who has very good claims next start.

The only other entrant is Marcus Tregoning's Strindberg. He doesn't give many entries and this son of Sea The Moon was a huge price on debut when showing a bit of pace because dropping out of contention. Beaten a long way. Stepping up in distance but needs to transform from a caterpillar into a butterfly. The only interesting aspect is a price of 50/1. On balance, you'd have to take a watching brief and a result looks very unlikely.

Strindberg 50/1 4th

Note: Strindberg, once again, showed the worth of this information. Looked to have a lot to proved but well backed, returning 20/1. Was 200/1+ on the exchanges early. Ran well to finish 4th. 

5:40 Kempton - 

A good few horses of note here. 

Buffalo River has shown a level of ability on all three starts. John Gosden is an excellent trainer and a very good judge. Punters who followed this son of Noble Mission on his last two starts have probably pulled their hair out by now. A crushing loss at 2/9f putting the cherry on the layers' cake. In truth, this horse has a fair level of ability. Whether you wish to bet at fractional odds-on after three losses is a matter of opinion. 

Note: Drifted markedly in betting when very keen to post but ran out a tidy winner.

Richard Hannon is a fair judge with a vast string of two-year-olds. Ajrar is well entered. She won easily on debut by three lengths. Runner-up at Listed class. Two credible runs at Group 3. Then a disappointment when attempting Group 2. This daughter of Nayef needs to leave that last race behind her. There is always a fear she has regressed. In addition, she has to defy a win penalty which isn't easy against strong opposition. Ajrar has achieved an official rating of 94. Few horses get to that level. Interesting. I would have to take a watching brief. 

Buffalo River 11/10f 1st
Ajrar 6/1 2nd 

Note: Far from disgraced finishing second under a win penalty and against a talented colt. Drifted to over 16/1+ on exchanges before some late money.

6:10 Kempton - 

Sir Michael Stoute has 10 significantly entered two-year-olds this season. Sovereign Grant has run twice and fancied to go well on both starts. She isn't the best looking filly. My brother noted this when at Great Yarmouth, where she disappointed at 4/6f. She wasn't beaten far into third. Has a chance but may have some limitation. 

Sovereign Grant 15/8f 1st

Note: Won easily. 

Wednesday's 2YO Update

A good few two-year-old races today. 

1:30 Nottingham:

Summer Blossom

Has been a model of consistency but has always found one or two too good. 

Exalted Angel 

This son of Dark Angel cost 150,000 euros at the yearling sales. Burke can win with his debutants. Most hold fair each-way claims when priced 10/1 & less SP. * Has been seriously backed from 14/1 on Betfair to 7/2 with bookmakers at present. 

Summer Blossom 7/1 2nd 
Exalted Angel 4/1 3rd 

1:40 Salisbury: 

Dawn Treader 

Just a Class 2 entry which suggests not one of the better Richard Hannon juveniles. Not too fancied in the betting on both starts to date but ran out a respectable second last time at Sandown. 

Dawn Trader 4/1 Unp

2:10 Salisbury:

Babbo's Boy 

Interesting to see Michael Bell's debutante has been given a significant entry. This Irish-bred son of Mastercraftsman is out of a debut-winning mare who raced a pattern class. This bay colt cost 110,000 guineas. Looks well found in the market. Running over a mile gives debutantes time to find their feet but they can be hit and miss.  

Wave Walker 

One of just four horses entered by Sylvester Kirk. He is a good judge. This chestnut colt ran well on debut when seriously backed. The form of that race looks fair although that was only an auction race. The statistics second start suggested a big run but that was far from the truth with a lacklustre display. I can't help think that was a disappointment and much better could be seen today. Kirk does well at Salisbury, as does J C Smith. Interesting to see how he goes. 

Wave Walker 9/1 5th
Babbo's Boy 10/1 7th  

Friday's 2YO Update - 10 Dark Horses

A lot of two-year-old race and a few horses which are worthy of note. 

I think we have three which feature on our 10 Dark Horse mailing. You will notice a few other significantly entered horses are running. I will simply detail the races of most interest. I will do my best to point you in the right direction. These are general pointers being so in advance of the race. When I bet, I use information right up to the race. Whether you wish to use this information to bet or not is your decision. 

5:25 Newmarket - 

A few of these are noted by trainers as talents. Andrew Balding's Firelight is a decent filly although I am always slightly fearful of horses shouldering a win penalty. Interesting to consider the chances of Michael Bell's Lady Aria. This daughter of Kodiac is considered quite favourably. Bell's best debutantes are usually well found in the betting but he does have a few that win at big odds. This filly is priced 14/1. Looks a pretty tough race in many respects but a horse who could make into a decent juvenile. 

6:15 Haydock - 

We have one of our 10 Dark Horses running here. *Kadar, trained by Karl Burke, is certainly worthy of note and with eight horses could well prove a fair bet for each-way backers. This son of Scat Daddy is in the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbred Ltd and 700,000 euro breeze-up purchase. This juvenile is definitely one of the best in Spigot Lodge. There is always a fear that debutantes will disappoint due to inexperience, lack of fitness or trainer unwilling to give their best prospects a hard race. However, this February foal is very interesting. John Gosden's Beatboxer is well respected in the yard and won in tidy fashion on debut. That experience is worth a lot from a horse which has proven ability. Once again, defying a win penalty is no easy task against decent opposition. 

*NR

6:35 Newmarket - 

Another two-year-old on our 10 Dark Horse list. Albert Finney is relatively fancied in the betting over this 7f trip. This home bred son of Kingman is owned by Rachel Hood. The stable debutantes often go well when priced 13/2 & less SP. They often go significantly well when priced 5/2 & less SP. A few of their debutantes disappoint. That is always the trouble with betting horses making their racecourse bow. Just about every trainer has better statistics with fancied two-year-olds on their second start. It's a fact. Still, an interesting juvenile if fancied in the market. Andrew Balding's Bye Bye Hong Kong could well be a danger and a horse worth following if not winning today. Their two-year-olds are often very good bets second start. This American-bred colt is a son of Street Sense and cost 575,000 guineas in the ownership of King Power Racing Co Ltd. You can pretty much guarantee this horse has ability. Strangely, the majority of Balding's debut winners are priced 7/1 & less SP. 

6:50 Haydock - 

Another of our 10 Dark Horses taking part in this 7f event. Commanding Officer is priced 14/1. This son of Poet's Voice wasn't overly fancied on debut when priced 10/1 and finished fourth beaten a good few lengths.He took at keen hold at York and should be more settled on this second start. It wouldn't surprise me if this colt is backed, so it could be a good move to bet early. Once again, there are a few talents in opposition such as *Motafaawit who has run well on two starts to date for Richard Hannon. A win penalty is a test at short odds, even for a talented juvenile.  

*NR

Most interesting:

6:15 Haydock - Kadar
6:35 Newmarket - Albert Finney, Bye Bye Hong Kong
6:50 Haydock - Commanding Officer

Good luck. 

Wednesday's 2YO Racing Tips (13th June)

2:40 Haydock - 

New Winds, trained by Mark Johnston, ran out a decent winner on debut, a race where the form has been franked. He missed the Woodcote Stakes to go to Doncaster but trailed home last. Whether the soft ground was an issue or he went a stride too fast for conditions, only time will tell. Connections will be hoping his daughter of New Approach can get back to the winner's enclosure.  

3:00 Yarmouth - 

Course and distance winner Artair comes back to the Norfolk coast with a winner's penalty but high hopes of making his presence felt. He come unstuck when stepped up to Listed class when competing in the National Stakes. Spencer led that day, and it was a stiff task against a decent field. This drop in class will help connections see where this colt is at. 

6:30 Hamilton - 

A restricted auction stakes. Diviner won second start and has to defy a penalty. 

Tuesday's 2YO Update

I seem to be running out of time so a quick note of significant entered horses. 

1:50 Leicester - 

Secret Venture, trained by Kevin Ryan. This son of Kyllachy cost £85,000 when purchased at the yearling sales. The stable have done well this season with their noted juveniles. 

Triple One hasn't received any entries at present. Michael Bell's charge was fancied in the betting on debut at Beverley but clueless. The betting that day may indicate ability. Priced at 10/1, I would imagine he will be backed if fancied today. The stable go well with fancied juveniles on their second start. If strong in the market could indicate a transformation. 

2:00 Redcar - 

Comete ran in a Class 2 race on debut at Newcastle. This daughter of Cammacho was pretty fancied in the betting considering it was a race worth almost £13,000. I can imagine connections expected a big run. Having a couple of months off course suggests there may have been a slight issue or given time to grow. The betting indicates there is better to come. 

Tom Dascombe has a couple of nice prospects with Arthur Kitt and Jackstar. Jensue is, perhaps, not in their league but respected enough to contest the Lily Agnes Stakes. She was slow away at Chester, as she was a touch outpaced at Beverley on debut. However, both starts, she has finished with gusto. This extra furlong should suit and by all accounts (on race type) this is a drop in class.   

2:10 Lingfield - 

Gypsy Spirit won on debut at Windsor for Tom Clover. The form of that race is ok without being anything special. Interesting that the trainer had this filly earmarked for the Marygate Listed race at York but didn't take that route. I imagine connections thought this step up to 6f would have seen her struggling for pace at the Navesmire. She has to shoulder a 4lb win penalty and wide draw. 

3:50 Leicester - 

Glorious Dane has been noted by Richard Hannon. 

6:40 Wolverhampton - 

Finoah has shown ability in a couple of starts. Interesting to see Simon Crisford has Sporting Chance noted as having ability. Considering he has a couple of decent horses to judge this breeze-up purchase, money would bring further confidence.    

1:50 Catterick (24th May)

Three two-year-olds races including the National Stakes Listed Race at Sandown. 

1:30 Goodwood - 
1:50 Catterick -
6:35 Sandown - 

All those entered at 6:35 Sandown are significantly entered. 

Take a look at the race here. 

1:50 Catterick - 

EBF Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) Class 5 2yo. Ten juveniles take part on good to firm ground. 

Just the one significant entry here being Mark Johnston's Diviner. This daughter of Charm Spirit was fancied on debut at Salisbury but didn't show in the heavy ground. A cheap yearling purchase, but a good-looking type. There was very good money for her second start at Wolverhampton when striding five-lengths clear of the field. That race was an auction class. To be fair, it didn't look the strongest of races although time will tell the truth. There was a lot to like about that performance. We can pretty much guarantee this bay filly will lead from a low draw. That will give in-running punters plenty of time to consider trading if they so wish (not my kind of bet). A small win penalty makes life a little harder. 

 A couple of horses here worth noting for their statistical chances.

Second Generation cost just £1000 at the breeze-up sales but fancied on debut for James Tate. She ran over course and distance but little went right that day when stuck behind a wall of horses. A few of Tate's juveniles have looked either limited or ring rusty this year but I would keep an eye on the betting. If fancied in the market, has decent each-way claims. If very weak - best watched. 

Michael Bell has sent out a good few two-year-olds this early season. Artair has won well at Yarmouth and heads to Sandown for the National Stakes Listed. Stage Play is a grey daughter of Oasis Dream and the mare won at Listed class and placed at Group 3 (cost 160,000 euros as a foal). Stage Play ran at Ascot on debut over the minimum trip. She showed pace before tiring in the closing furlong. The stats indicate this filly has sound each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. 

Posh Perfect showed little ability when racing at Ripon on debut when made favourite. Richard Fahey has a very good string of two-year-olds and if this horse is strong in the betting I would be quite fearful. 

Conclusion: A race of interest. A few of these, above, have some chance although they could make it a competitive heat. I would let the betting settle before jumping in.  

Tuesday's Racing Update (1st May)

Five two-year-old races for Tuesday. Still a lot of testing going which has been a factor all season. 

I will detail the horses with significant entries.

2:00 Nottingham - 

Fillies' Novice stakes over 5f 8y on soft going. 

Just the one entry here being Richard Hannon's Spell. This Irish-bred daughter of Slade Power is worth noting. 

NR: Spell

2:10 Yarmouth - 

A Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 42y on good to soft going,

George Scott's Usain Boat didn't cost a fortune at the yearling sales [23,000 euros]. However, this Irish-bred of Casamento has been noted by the trainer. A good jockey booking, too. Hard Forest is one of a few juveniles given a significant entry by Mark Johnston. This daughter of Hard Spun is the only filly in the line up but a horse with plenty of pace. The drying ground may be in her favour. To be fair, she has looked a slightly short runner on both starts but her experience will most likely see her lead. If running to the line - or gaining an easy lead - should go close. From a statistical point of view Artair is interesting. Michael Bell doesn't have many early two-year-olds and this colt was fancied on debut at Windsor. He was held up but made smooth headway (touched short prices in-running) before being outpointed in the final furlong by Blown by Wind, who is a fair horse. This looks a competitive little field. Intriguing race. 

Conclusion: Hard Forest is a fair juvenile and most blast clear of the field and hope to hold on. Artair doesn't have any entries but on stats has pretty strong claims. Usain Boat could be the surprise package.  

1st Artair 11/10f
2nd Usain Boat 9/2 

2:20 Brighton - 

A Novice Auction Stakes over 5f 60y on good to soft going. 

No horses with significant entries. 

5:45 Kempton - 

A Novice Auction Stakes over 5f on standard going. 

Ten two-year-olds take part. It's The Only Way ran out a tidy winner on debut and a good-looking colt. Has to give away weight with a penalty. Wolf Hunter has been given a significant entry by Richard Hughes but showed nothing on debut. Best watched. Sylvester Kirk's Wolstonbury was noted by the trainer and run in a hot Newbury maiden.This son of Kodiac showed an element of ability before the three leaders left the rest standing. Probably capable of better but need to show more. Quite interested in Michael Bell's Brelade's Bay. This daughter of Footstepsinthesand cost £20,000 at the breeze-up sales. Well drawn in stall two. Interesting. Tom Clover had a winning debutante at Windsor and a capable trainer. Rajy is a bay daughter of Society Rock and £19,00 yearling purchase. The fact she was given a significant entry speaks well. A horse that may slip under the radar. A wide draw isn't ideal. 

Conclusion: It's The Only Way should go well even with a penalty. Brelade's Bay is definitely of interest and I can see her running well. Rajy is another worth noting for the future. A wide draw makes life difficult. 

1st It's The Only Way 11/10f
2nd Um Shama 16/1 
3rd Dolly Dupree 25/1

6:15 Kempton - 

An EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 5fon standard going.

A couple of significant entrants here with the once-raced Chynna and Ed Walker's On the Stage. The former ran well on debut at Newmarket. The form of that race has been franked although not the easiest to make sense. On The Stage is a home bred daughter of Swiss Spirit in the familiar silks of Lordship Stud. 

1st On The Stage 3/1 
2nd Thegreytrain 80/1
3rd Chynna 9/4