Andrew Balding's: All You Wish (Made Me Cry)

So many race days bring moments of happiness, frustration and despair. 

Perhaps the latter of those three words is a touch full on but I'm sure all gamblers have had moments of extreme frustration (boarding on despair). 

Anyway, I had one of those moments today when missing a 33/1 winner. Well, I say missed (that isn't quite true as I did have a tiny bet) but by all ways of thinking it was nothing. Those who follow the Group entries may have noticed Andrew Balding's All You Wish had, earlier in the year, been given a Gimcrack Stakes entry. It didn't run in the race and disappointed on debut. However, this proves the point of why you need to appreciate the entries and keep an open mind that anything is possible. 

Other than very few people (those in the know) wouldn't have remembered this son of Showcasing had anything going for it at all. I can imagine most people wouldn't have known it was considered for any class race. The horse looked poor after showing little on debut at Salisbury when starting a 16/1 shot. A slow start ruined any hope of winning. All You Wish finished twelfth of fourteen. 

Three weeks off course and Balding enters this horse for Kempton, stepping up to 7f. The starting odds 33/1. Betfair the price touched 90/1. There was a little bit of money just before the off as he was backed to 40s (exchange).

The rest is history. All You Wish, led from just about start to finish and battled well to hold two favourites who put down serious challenges. However, neither could stop this big galloping horse which held on to win by a neck. 

You can imagine the thoughts going through my mind. 

The main reason I didn't bet was simply that Balding doesn't have many winners on their second start over 9/1. See, sometimes you can just think you know too much. This winner helped me write a new guideline for my own personal bets, which, to some extent, will help prevent this from happening in future. As we all know, there will always be something. If you have to learn a lesson, you may as well learn it and move forward. 

I hope a few of you noticed the interest in All You Wish today, as the entry is there to be seen, for those who care to look and appreciate the information at hand.  

I'm pleased to say Craig from Craig's Betting Blog had a few quid each-way. Great to hear. It proves the worth of the information we detail. 

Friday's 2YO Update

 2:00 Chester - 

Andrew Balding does well at Chester and always worth noting when in the ownership of J C Smith. Indomitable is a bay colt who has been beaten narrowly in both starts to date. His latest start, finishing second in the Convivial Maiden Stakes, was a great result and worthy favourite for connections. 

Indomitable  



3:25 Sandown - 

Quite an interesting race. 

Ed Dunlop doesn't have that decent string of juveniles but Venedgar is a consistent horse who has achieved an official rating of 83. This determined son of Dubawi has been beaten by a couple of smart Gosden two-year-olds. 

John Gosden may be a thorn in Venedgar's side because of Kosciusko has been noted by connections. 

Wojood is interesting. Hugo Palmer's charge is one of few two-year-olds to gain a significant entry but disappointed almost a month ago. Something went amiss at Newmarket. Could go well at odds of 22/1. At that price, is worthy as a speculative each-way wager. 

Note: Wojood was a big price and too keen. I don't think connections was too concerned with disappointing today and if getting a low handicap mark will be winning. This horse needs to kerb its temperament but that should happen sooner rather than later.  

4:00 Salisbury -

Simon Crisford's Jash won well on debut. This son of Kodiac was well backed and cruised to a four-and-a-half length victory. The form of that race has been franked. This smart prospect was meant to race at this course but it was abandoned due to a chaffer grub infestation. Has to defy a win penalty which makes life harder. 

4:35 Salisbury - 

Hugo Palmer has Red October going here. This son of Dawn Approach cost 50,000 guineas at the yearling sales. Palmer can go well with his debutantes and should run a race. 

4:40 Doncaster - 

Saeeb bin Suroor has done better this season than last. He is still rather hit and miss and something of a poor relation to Charlie Appleby. However, Royal Marine may be worth a second glance. This home-bred son of Raven's Pass was fancied on debut at Newmarket but looks to have disappointed behind Jash who is decent two-year-old. Royal Marine looks one of the better-entered juveniles and has win and place claims at 6/1. 

Note: Once again proved correct. Royal Marine detailed on one of our two 10 Dark Horse mailing lists. Failed on debut - wins easily the second start after drifting markedly in the betting. It doesn't get any better than this. Group Horse Knows!  

Ralph Beckett has been going well of late with a couple of winners and debutants who have shown ability [Fragrant Bell & Sam Cook]. James Park Wood is intriguing. Beckett can win on debut and this son of Australia who cost 190,000 guineas has received a significant entry. The way his debutantes have gone of late could well hit the frame. 

Saturday's 2YO Racing Tips

I hope you have been following the two mailings we sent out and these recent updates. There is one thing Group Horse does - it delivers. If you don't agree, then take a look at the horses we have given and continue to do so over the months. 

Just a few noted successes on Friday: 

• 2:05 Newmarket - Layaleena, trained by Sir Michael Stoute 
• 3:00 York - Emaraaty Ana wins the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) 
• 3:15 Newmarket - Sangarius, a hot favourite for Sir Michael Stoute wins on debut and going places 
• 4:15 York - Commanding Officer, detailed on our 10 Dark Horse Mailing, wins the Convivial Maiden 
• 6:55 Salisbury - Kuwait Currency wins at Listed class 

I don't know about you, but I've not seen anyone else detailing such class horse from a limited selection!    

Let's take a look at the better two-year-olds running today:

1:40 Newmarket - 

We've seen some real talents racing over the last few days and it will be interesting to see how Saeed bin Suroor's Royal Marine goes. This homebred son of Raven's Pass who is out of a once-raced mare. This bay colt looks to be one of the stable's better juveniles. As I always mention, debutantes can be a law unto themselves. However, I do think it is a positive this April foal races at Newmarket. 

Simon Crisford is a very talented trainer, especially at priming debutantes. You may have noticed one of our 10 Dark Horses ran on Friday, Imperial Charm. Just denied in third place beaten by two other juveniles we noted as class acts [Layaleena & Ice Gala, for good measure we gave the fourth, too, Dandhu]. Crisford could well have a decent prospect going here in the shape of Jash. This bay son of Kodiac cost 185,000 guineas at the yearling sales. I'd be pretty confident this two-year-old has some ability. The stable is very good with debutantes which give greater hope. 

5:15 Windsor - 

Jeremy Noseda hasn't had too many talented juveniles this season. However, Lady Cosette is going in the right direction. To be fair, this bay filly is one of the best two-year-olds in the stable (not the best year). She ran well on debut when needing the run. A gallant second at Goodwood over 7f. Dropping back in distance shouldn't be a problem and a horse I suspect will take some beating. 

As usual, there are no easy races. Andrew Balding has been in exceptional form and for that reason, Bye Bye Hong Kong catches the eye. This American-bred son of Street Sense was a beaten favourite on debut when third at Newmarket on soft going. A horse worthy of note in the silks of King Power Racing Co Ltd. If touching each-way prices looks a very good bet. 

Finoah has been knocking on the door. This son of Kodiac, trained by Tom Dascombe, has been a model of consistency and achieved an official rating of 85. Unlucky not to have won with five placed efforts. Has claims but may be susceptible to one or two lightly raced horses and have to be careful that after so many hard races may regress at some point. A horse with a chance if running his race.

Just to make it a little tougher we have Typhoon Ten, who won on debut and has to shoulder a winner's penalty. No easy task against the potentially useful opposition. He struggled last time out when dropping in distance and it may well have been the penalty which saw him lose. A well-entered horse who may not have the class for pattern races so keeping to this level for now. 

Conclusion: A tough race in ways. I would favour Lady Cosette and Bye Bye Hong Kong. The latter may be a decent each-way bet if prices allow. 

6:00 Redcar - 

Concello is noted as one of Archie Watson's better two-year-olds, from a decent string. The winning penalty is never the best sign but a capable juvenile.        

Friday's 2YO Update

I must apologise for a couple of quiet days. I'm in the USA so been very difficult to get online, think and work. 

Let's take a quick look at the races. 

2:05 Newmarket - 

A Novice Stakes over 7f on good to firm going. A big field with 17 runners and number well respected. 

Canton Queen trained by Richard Hannon.

Dandhu, trained by David Elsworth. Definitely one of the stable's better two-year-olds, although a small string. Ran well on debut and should be thereabout today. 

Andrew Balding is a talented trainer and *Hello Bangkok is held in some regard by connections King Power Racing Co Ltd. Ran well on debut, losing narrowly. Interesting and should run a big race. 

Ice Gala has received a significant entry and ran well on debut when third beaten less than one length. 

Simon Crisford doesn't have many two-year-old horses of significance but Imperial Charm is worthy of note. Debutantes are never the easiest of horses to assess although the trainer is a good judge and his better juveniles go well. 

Sir Michael Stoute has Layaleena, a debutante, who is a 130,000 guineas yearling purchase. Very few of their debutantes win over 7/1 SP. 

Conclusion: A competitive heat with a few talents on show. The debutantes will need to be very good and primed to win. The betting may well tell the story for Layaleena. If strong in the betting has decent claims. If weak, best watched. Imperial Charm has the ability to go well. Dandhu is one of the major hopes, especially if priced 13/2 & less. I'm pretty confident Elsworth rates this filly. She ran well on debut and the stable does well with two-year-olds on their second start. A similar thought can be afforded to Hello Bangkok. Balding likes this filly and she will go close. 

* NR

2:15 Ffos Las - 

Momkin has to fend off rivals by carrying a winning penalty but clearly held in high regard by Roger Charlton.   

3:15 Newmarket - 

Richard Hannon's Mordred sets a high standard for this race A straightforward colt. He has achieved an official rating of 91, which is plenty enough and more to win a normal race. Interesting to see Sir Michael Stoute has Sangarius going here. This son of Kingman is held in some regard. The stable can ready a debutante and they can go in at short odds. It will take a serious performance to lower the colours of Mordred in what looks like a two-horse race on betting.  

5:50 Salisbury - 

An auction stakes. These generally go to form horse and most likely to the favourite Flashcard who won in some style on debut at big odds [33/1]. Has to defy a winner's penalty but that is more likely in these restrictive race types than others. Bill Turner fields the only significant entrant in this field. John Betjemen is a sturdy sort who ran well on debut before disappointing. Come back after a long break, stepping up to 7f and didn't do much wrong. Dropping back to 6f shouldn't be a problem. I'm sure this colt wants decent going and may even benefit is it turned soft.     

Friday's 2YO Update - 10 Dark Horses

A lot of two-year-old race and a few horses which are worthy of note. 

I think we have three which feature on our 10 Dark Horse mailing. You will notice a few other significantly entered horses are running. I will simply detail the races of most interest. I will do my best to point you in the right direction. These are general pointers being so in advance of the race. When I bet, I use information right up to the race. Whether you wish to use this information to bet or not is your decision. 

5:25 Newmarket - 

A few of these are noted by trainers as talents. Andrew Balding's Firelight is a decent filly although I am always slightly fearful of horses shouldering a win penalty. Interesting to consider the chances of Michael Bell's Lady Aria. This daughter of Kodiac is considered quite favourably. Bell's best debutantes are usually well found in the betting but he does have a few that win at big odds. This filly is priced 14/1. Looks a pretty tough race in many respects but a horse who could make into a decent juvenile. 

6:15 Haydock - 

We have one of our 10 Dark Horses running here. *Kadar, trained by Karl Burke, is certainly worthy of note and with eight horses could well prove a fair bet for each-way backers. This son of Scat Daddy is in the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbred Ltd and 700,000 euro breeze-up purchase. This juvenile is definitely one of the best in Spigot Lodge. There is always a fear that debutantes will disappoint due to inexperience, lack of fitness or trainer unwilling to give their best prospects a hard race. However, this February foal is very interesting. John Gosden's Beatboxer is well respected in the yard and won in tidy fashion on debut. That experience is worth a lot from a horse which has proven ability. Once again, defying a win penalty is no easy task against decent opposition. 

*NR

6:35 Newmarket - 

Another two-year-old on our 10 Dark Horse list. Albert Finney is relatively fancied in the betting over this 7f trip. This home bred son of Kingman is owned by Rachel Hood. The stable debutantes often go well when priced 13/2 & less SP. They often go significantly well when priced 5/2 & less SP. A few of their debutantes disappoint. That is always the trouble with betting horses making their racecourse bow. Just about every trainer has better statistics with fancied two-year-olds on their second start. It's a fact. Still, an interesting juvenile if fancied in the market. Andrew Balding's Bye Bye Hong Kong could well be a danger and a horse worth following if not winning today. Their two-year-olds are often very good bets second start. This American-bred colt is a son of Street Sense and cost 575,000 guineas in the ownership of King Power Racing Co Ltd. You can pretty much guarantee this horse has ability. Strangely, the majority of Balding's debut winners are priced 7/1 & less SP. 

6:50 Haydock - 

Another of our 10 Dark Horses taking part in this 7f event. Commanding Officer is priced 14/1. This son of Poet's Voice wasn't overly fancied on debut when priced 10/1 and finished fourth beaten a good few lengths.He took at keen hold at York and should be more settled on this second start. It wouldn't surprise me if this colt is backed, so it could be a good move to bet early. Once again, there are a few talents in opposition such as *Motafaawit who has run well on two starts to date for Richard Hannon. A win penalty is a test at short odds, even for a talented juvenile.  

*NR

Most interesting:

6:15 Haydock - Kadar
6:35 Newmarket - Albert Finney, Bye Bye Hong Kong
6:50 Haydock - Commanding Officer

Good luck. 

Tuesday's 2YO Update

Three two-year-old races to consider. 

2:15 Hamilton - 

No entries of note. 

6:45 Chepstow - 

Tisneverending is a significant entrant for Stan Moore. She has been flitting between the UK and France. Not the easiest horse to assess. 

7:15 Chepstow - 

An intriguing race. A few of these are worthy of note. Shaybani has to shoulder a win penalty but good enough to contest the Coventry Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. Wasn't disgraced in mid division. 

David Evans is a fair judge and Disruptor is better than seen on his first two starts. Needed the run on debut, when finishing with verve. A beaten favourite next start when stepping up to six furlongs after a long break. Nothing much went right that day. He wasn't helped at all by running wide and then being pushed even wider on the final bend. In truth, there was a lot to like about that performance although backers where left frustrated. The race looked decent. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the first seven horses at Lingfield go on to win. If this wasn't such a stiff contest, I would be pretty keen on this French-bred colt hitting the frame if not winning. Not without a chance at fair odds. 

I don't usually detail horses here if they haven't been given significant entries. However, there are a few horses which may be able opponents. 

Roger Teal's Spirit Of May has very good win and place claims if priced 13/2 and less. Dutch Treat has fair each-way claims if priced 9/1 & less sp.  

A tough race in ways but very interesting.  

Tuesday's Racing Update (1st May)

Five two-year-old races for Tuesday. Still a lot of testing going which has been a factor all season. 

I will detail the horses with significant entries.

2:00 Nottingham - 

Fillies' Novice stakes over 5f 8y on soft going. 

Just the one entry here being Richard Hannon's Spell. This Irish-bred daughter of Slade Power is worth noting. 

NR: Spell

2:10 Yarmouth - 

A Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 42y on good to soft going,

George Scott's Usain Boat didn't cost a fortune at the yearling sales [23,000 euros]. However, this Irish-bred of Casamento has been noted by the trainer. A good jockey booking, too. Hard Forest is one of a few juveniles given a significant entry by Mark Johnston. This daughter of Hard Spun is the only filly in the line up but a horse with plenty of pace. The drying ground may be in her favour. To be fair, she has looked a slightly short runner on both starts but her experience will most likely see her lead. If running to the line - or gaining an easy lead - should go close. From a statistical point of view Artair is interesting. Michael Bell doesn't have many early two-year-olds and this colt was fancied on debut at Windsor. He was held up but made smooth headway (touched short prices in-running) before being outpointed in the final furlong by Blown by Wind, who is a fair horse. This looks a competitive little field. Intriguing race. 

Conclusion: Hard Forest is a fair juvenile and most blast clear of the field and hope to hold on. Artair doesn't have any entries but on stats has pretty strong claims. Usain Boat could be the surprise package.  

1st Artair 11/10f
2nd Usain Boat 9/2 

2:20 Brighton - 

A Novice Auction Stakes over 5f 60y on good to soft going. 

No horses with significant entries. 

5:45 Kempton - 

A Novice Auction Stakes over 5f on standard going. 

Ten two-year-olds take part. It's The Only Way ran out a tidy winner on debut and a good-looking colt. Has to give away weight with a penalty. Wolf Hunter has been given a significant entry by Richard Hughes but showed nothing on debut. Best watched. Sylvester Kirk's Wolstonbury was noted by the trainer and run in a hot Newbury maiden.This son of Kodiac showed an element of ability before the three leaders left the rest standing. Probably capable of better but need to show more. Quite interested in Michael Bell's Brelade's Bay. This daughter of Footstepsinthesand cost £20,000 at the breeze-up sales. Well drawn in stall two. Interesting. Tom Clover had a winning debutante at Windsor and a capable trainer. Rajy is a bay daughter of Society Rock and £19,00 yearling purchase. The fact she was given a significant entry speaks well. A horse that may slip under the radar. A wide draw isn't ideal. 

Conclusion: It's The Only Way should go well even with a penalty. Brelade's Bay is definitely of interest and I can see her running well. Rajy is another worth noting for the future. A wide draw makes life difficult. 

1st It's The Only Way 11/10f
2nd Um Shama 16/1 
3rd Dolly Dupree 25/1

6:15 Kempton - 

An EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 5fon standard going.

A couple of significant entrants here with the once-raced Chynna and Ed Walker's On the Stage. The former ran well on debut at Newmarket. The form of that race has been franked although not the easiest to make sense. On The Stage is a home bred daughter of Swiss Spirit in the familiar silks of Lordship Stud. 

1st On The Stage 3/1 
2nd Thegreytrain 80/1
3rd Chynna 9/4

Group Horse: From 2yo to Kentucky Derby Winner 2018

Why is Group Horse so powerful? 

Basically, it details the best two-year-old horses in training. Whether unraced, lightly raced or even if we are looking into the future, perhaps a horse running for the first time at three. That is the strength of this remarkable information. 

Do you want to know the best horses before they are known to the racing public?

With a mailing list of over 1,000 subscribers they are in agreement. 

For example, let's take the 7:30 Kempton - ''Road To The Kentucky Derby '' Conditions Stakes (Plus 10) (1st March) over 1 mile on standard to slow going. 

This race is worth £43,575.00 to the winner and stepping stone to the Kentucky Derby. Here is a link to the race if you want to see the horses, trainers, betting odds. I know what you are saying 'Well, we can all see it is a good race with talented horses''. 

Correct.

The example is about looking back to see which horses Group Horse identified from this race at two-year-olds. 

From the eight three-year-olds how many did we identify at two? Those unraced or lightly raced. Remember 80% of horses don't win a race and most of them are no great shakes. 

So identifying horses to achieve this level is exceptional. 

So which of the horse did we identify?

Fortune's Pearl (Andrew Balding) - 2 wins, raced at Group class and has an official rating of 100. 

Gronkowski (Jeremy Noseda) -  Raced 4 times achieving 2 wins and on official rating of 95. 

Jellmood (Marco Botti) - A very consistent horse with one win from seven start but placed on five other occasions. An official rating of 95.

Ventura Knight - A progressive, durable horse who has won four races from eleven starts. An official rating of 95. 

Gronkowski is tissue priced at 13/8f. 

All four horses are talents. Each of these horses was identified by Group Horse at two. 

Look where they are at three. 

Who knows where they will be at the end of the year? 

Perhaps a Kentucky Derby winner! 

7:30 Chelmsford - Danzan 105

Not a great deal of time to write a post. To be honest, there isn't much point even detailing the very likely winner of this race considering the horse is 1/6f.

Danzan is a talented three-year-old. He was noted at two by Andrew Balding. Definitely one of the better prospects in that formative season competing at a high level including group class. 

His win at Pontefract, storming clear by 10 lengths, was a sight to behold. A bloody good price too. I actually had an each-way bet that day and laid it off on Betfair about half the odds in running. That wasn't the best idea. Unplaced at Group 3 & 1 but picking up a huge cash prize when runner-up at Doncaster in the Weatherbys Racing Bank £300,000 2YO Sales race. Second place being worth just over £59,000. Total earning over £76,000. Last time out cruising to an easy win at 1/8f. Before that runner-up to the speedster Corinthia Knight who won well today. This race at Chelmsford looks a formality.