The Exception to the Rule


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Saturday, 22 September 2018

Saturday's 2YO Update

Well, I have got back from Great Yarmouth and updated all the race reviews. Now I have to look at Saturday's action and it's 9:30pm. 

It takes a lot of effort to update this info. 

Far too many races so I'm going to keep this as brief as I can which usually means the post is longer than ever. I hope not for my sake. 



1:15 Newbury - 

Richard Hannon's *Masaru won well on debut then finished eighth in the Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes when a beaten favourite. This bay colt is well respected in the stable and made favourite to take the spoils. Interesting to see how he goes. I must admit, I do have concerns about many of these winners who carry penalties. A lot have failed to deliver as favourites under the burden. I will run a study on these at the end of the season to gain more insight because I don't think many are value at short odds. Certainly, class horses can win but it is something to consider. 

One horse at big odds noted by trainer Marcus Tregoning is Tell William. In general, few of his debutant win at speculative odds. This son of Invincible Spirit is priced 40/1. 

Tell William 25/1 8th


* NR

1:40 Chelmsford - 

Roger Charlton's Catan has an entry although looks one of the stable's lesser lights. A winner at huge odds last start and has to defy a win penalty. 

Catan 8/1 3rd 

2:10 Newmarket - 

Simon Crisford has noted El Gumryah, who ran well on debut in a strong field at Goodwood. 

Star Of War has been given a Class 2 entry which may suggest ability. Ran ok on debut at Leicester when behind impressive stablemate Canton Queen. Stepping up to a mile should help. 

Star Of War 7/1 2nd
El Gumryah 7/2 3rd

4:05 Newmarket - 

I always like William Haggas' two-year-old runners at Newmarket. As often the case with talented juveniles, they show their form second start. Coup De Gold has been noted by connections and a costly purchase at 155,000 euros. This son of Maxios was fancied to go well on debut at Sandown but little went right: slowly into stride, keen and then stumbling. However, he did show latent ability and one would suspect better today. The hood has been applied for the first time to help concentrate the mind. Wouldn't want to be slow from the stall but that experience should help. 

Interesting to see Clive Cox has Eligible making his debut. Cox isn't the type of trainer to detail horses of limited ability and this son of Dark Angel cost 145,000 guineas as a foal and races in the silks of A D Spence. A noted owner. Priced 14/1, it will be interesting to see if this juvenile is backed. I'd be pretty confident this horse has ability, although if a big price you have to consider it may need the run. In general, the two-year-olds are fit and well. Interesting to see how this one goes. 

Another one of Marcus Tregoning's debutantes in Strindberg. This son of Sea The Moon wasn't the most expensive but given a Class 2 stakes entry which suggests connections have some hope. As detailed above, most of there debutantes need the run at speculative prices although they can show ability. At 33/1 this horse is a big price if fancying a punt. 

Conclusion: Coup De Gold will run well. Interesting to see if Eligible is backed. Maybe worth a speculative punt at big odds in the hope it is backed.  

Note: Must apologise for not noticing that King Ottokar had been given a significant entry by Charlie Fellows. The horse was well backed and won! 

King Ottokar 9/2 1st 
Coup De Gold 3/1 8th 
Eligible 12/1 9th 
Strindberg 50/1 unp

8:15 Wolverhampton - 

Saeed bin Suroor is going well this season, which makes a change from the lull of the last few meagre harvests. *Dubai Icon wasn't fancied on debut but likely to show up well here. 

Mark Jonhston has Henry's Conquest. A recent Class 2 stakes entry may indicate hope. Priced 16/1 in the betting, it would bring more confidence. Very few of their debutantes win at bigger odds. 

Henry's Conquest 14/1 6th 

* NR


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