1:30 Nottingham -
Aluqair has been noted by Simon Crisford. A recent Class 2 entry brings some confidence. This son of Kodiac cost £48,00 at the breeze-up sales.
Aluqair 6/1 4th
Note: A nice introduction.
2:30 Nottingham -
Michael Bell has seen a few decent two-year-olds come to hand this season. Eagles By Day is owned by Clipper Logistics and cost 125,000 guineas at the yearling sales. Probably a fair sign to have Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Bell isn't the easiest trainer to assess with debutantes. The best can win at the first time of asking. However, they can vary from one extreme to the other. Babbo's Bell is an example. Looked to be coming for money but drifted markedly in the betting and was in need of the run. With any juvenile making its racecourse bow at this time of the year, they may be in need of experience or the run. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less SP would bring more hope.
Eagles By Day 7/1 2nd
Note: Note: A big drifter on the exchanges but a bit of money late. Ran a very nice race in second. A fair juvenile who has very good claims next start.
The only other entrant is Marcus Tregoning's Strindberg. He doesn't give many entries and this son of Sea The Moon was a huge price on debut when showing a bit of pace because dropping out of contention. Beaten a long way. Stepping up in distance but needs to transform from a caterpillar into a butterfly. The only interesting aspect is a price of 50/1. On balance, you'd have to take a watching brief and a result looks very unlikely.
Strindberg 50/1 4th
Note: Strindberg, once again, showed the worth of this information. Looked to have a lot to proved but well backed, returning 20/1. Was 200/1+ on the exchanges early. Ran well to finish 4th.
5:40 Kempton -
A good few horses of note here.
Buffalo River has shown a level of ability on all three starts. John Gosden is an excellent trainer and a very good judge. Punters who followed this son of Noble Mission on his last two starts have probably pulled their hair out by now. A crushing loss at 2/9f putting the cherry on the layers' cake. In truth, this horse has a fair level of ability. Whether you wish to bet at fractional odds-on after three losses is a matter of opinion.
Note: Drifted markedly in betting when very keen to post but ran out a tidy winner.
Richard Hannon is a fair judge with a vast string of two-year-olds. Ajrar is well entered. She won easily on debut by three lengths. Runner-up at Listed class. Two credible runs at Group 3. Then a disappointment when attempting Group 2. This daughter of Nayef needs to leave that last race behind her. There is always a fear she has regressed. In addition, she has to defy a win penalty which isn't easy against strong opposition. Ajrar has achieved an official rating of 94. Few horses get to that level. Interesting. I would have to take a watching brief.
Buffalo River 11/10f 1st
Ajrar 6/1 2nd
Note: Far from disgraced finishing second under a win penalty and against a talented colt. Drifted to over 16/1+ on exchanges before some late money.
6:10 Kempton -
Sir Michael Stoute has 10 significantly entered two-year-olds this season. Sovereign Grant has run twice and fancied to go well on both starts. She isn't the best looking filly. My brother noted this when at Great Yarmouth, where she disappointed at 4/6f. She wasn't beaten far into third. Has a chance but may have some limitation.
Sovereign Grant 15/8f 1st
Note: Won easily.
Three two-year-old races today.
Makes a change as there is far too much racing for my liking.
The only race with significant entries is:
6:15 Chelmsford -
6f totepool Cashback Club At totesport.com Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo)
Going: Standard
Runners: 10
Analysis:
Not bad prize money for this race at £6,081. It's perhaps a touch surprising that the favourite, Fognini, hasn't been given the nod. I guess Archie Watson is happy enough to contest these Novice Stakes for now.
We have two significantly entered juveniles here. Both look less than promising in their formative starts. However, I've seen plenty of horses look pretty mediocre before flapping those Pegasus wings.
Sir Michael Stoute noted Khafooq, although this son of Kodiac hasn't really shone so far. He isn't anywhere close to the better talents in the stable that readers have noted such as Snagarius, Laylaleena & Almania. Khafooq was a marked drifter on debut and finished last. As I have said before, very few of Stoute's debutantes win when priced over 13/2 SP. Obviously, some do but they are usually the exception to the rule and often very classy horses. I think punters gave this bay colt the benefit of the doubt when returning to Leicester. He showed pace for a few furlongs but dropped away tamely. He was given a few hefty reminders which helped for half a furlong before all was lost. It was a pretty lifeless performance to be fair. Unless he has disappointed on both starts [not impossible] improvement is needed. A low draw is a positive. I wouldn't be interested in betting.
The other juvenile noted here looks even less inspiring. However, even the best of horses can run poorly on debut. I've seen plenty finish last on debut and turn out to be very talented juveniles. It is a strange fact that when a horse finishes a disappointing last [especially when fancied in the betting] they are worth noting the second start. So who are we talking about? Shining Armor, trained by John Ryan. This bay gelding, a son of Morpheus, is out of a limited but four-times winning mare. Breeding would suggest he wants further. He cost just £16,000 at the breeze-up sales, now in the ownership of Gerry McGladery, who is a good patron to this stable. Ryan sent this horse to make his debut at Yarmouth over 5f. He showed up for a while before dropping out of contention. He wasn't fancied in the betting at 20/1. This gelding was given an entry for the Champagne Stakes (Group 2). Is that a sign of ability? Time will tell. At odds of 50/1 it is a huge price. A wide draw isn't ideal for this turning course.
Interesting.
Very busy so I will just detail in a concise manner. As I have said before, all the info is here in these pages so you shouldn't need me to detail much at all, to be honest.
1:35 Beverley -
Hawthorn Rose - well thought of in Sir Michael Stoute's stable Should take some beating.
Brassica - Definitely one of the best juveniles in Sir Mark Prescott's care.
2:40 Chester -
Tom Dascombe fields Drogon who has been noted by the yard but has to defy a win penalty.
Mordred is a capable horse but found a few talented opponents so far. This turning course may help if getting to the rail. Certainly up to winning a race but always a slight concern he may regress at some point.
Lady Kinsale was entered for the Lily Agnes but limited by all accounts. Has good pace but will need a minor miracle.
6:15 Chelmsford -
Interesting.
Charlie Appleby has one of his potentially smart juveniles running today in the shape of debutante Court Poet. This son of Dubawi is well drawn and favourite to take this.
Mark Johnston's Rock Up In Style is held in some regard but doesn't look to be in the upper class. Ran a respectable race when fourth on debut.
A good few races and significant two-year-olds going today.
2:40 Sandown -
7f Bet & Watch At 188bet.co.uk EBF Maiden Stakes (Div I) (Class 5) (2yo)
An intriguing race with a few fair juveniles.
John Gosden's Alrajaa made a nice introduction over course and distance when finishing fourth at odds of 7/2. Looking as though in need of the run, this son of Dubawi is held in high regard by the stable. This bay colt was the sole candidate for the Convivial Stakes at York but bypassed that wealthy Maiden to head here.
Readers may have seen a couple of debut winners from Sir Michael Stoute (both Layaleena and Sangarius detailed on Group Horse). Stoute has another debutante of note racing here in the ownership of Her Majesty The Queen. Sovereign Grant is one of few entrants for the Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1). Very few of Stoute's two-year-old debutantes win when priced over 8/1. This should help assess. If fancied in the betting should go well.
3:15 Sandown -
7f Bet & Watch At 188bet.co.uk EBF Maiden Stakes (Div II) (Class 5) (2yo)
Sir Michael Stoute has Almania who was a beaten favourite when fourth at Ascot over 6f. This 500,000 guinea yearling purchase is worthy of note. This son of Australia ran credibly on debut but giving the impression this step up in distance is needed. This strong-looking bay is definitely one of the best juveniles at Freemason Lodge Stables. Connections will be disappointed if he doesn't win today.
Other horses worthy of note include:
William Haggas' Coup De Gold is making his debut and a 155,000 euro purchase at the yearling sales. Racing in the ownership of Sunderland Holdings Inc this son of Maxios is of interest. The stable's juvenile can go well when fancied in the betting although, at times, unpredictable.
Charlie Fellows doesn't have the biggest string of two-year-olds but Divine Gift has been noted. This Irish-bred son of Nathaniel was priced 14/1 on debut when racing over course and distance. Much more is needed - but may be capable of better at 40/1.
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