Well, another decent day on Monday detailing a 40/1 shot who finished 4th (annoying) and Mistress Of Love who won comfortably. The latter being a horse we detailed on debut when flopping. I'm sure a few readers may have laughed seeing a 2/5f beaten. Plenty of smiles today when it drifts to 9/2 and cruises clear of the field. All the information can be seen in Group Horse 2018.
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2:35 Goodwood -
Just the one significant entry here. By all accounts, this two-year-old didn't achieve a great deal on debut. Sunday Star is priced 50/1 with bookmakers so if you fancy a speculative bet, you can only imagine the odds on the exchanges. I haven't looked but you could well be looking at 100/1+. Ed Walker's bay filly is a homebred daughter of Kodiac out of a winning mare. Racing in the ownership of D Ward, and Gerald Mosse takes the ride. Improvement is most certainly needed but an absence of almost two months could well detail there was an issue on debut. Interesting.
5:25 Leicester -
A restricted race type which usually goes to form horses. A couple of significantly entered juveniles taking part.
Blame Roberta has run four times. This bay daughter of Balme is a decent juvenile for this level. Went well at Windsor and then far from disgraced at Listed class. Should take some beating.
The betting suggests this is a two-horse race. Guess what? The other horse of note is the second favourite trained by Karl Burke, Harperelle. There must have been a pretty drastic issue with this daughter of Burwaaz as she hasn't been seen since March. That was a Class 2 race with good prize money. She didn't seem fancied in the betting [16/1] but ran on with vim. The form of that race has been franked. From a statistical point of view, she holds respectable claims. The lay-off could be an issue. I would wait for the betting to settle just in case signs are not encouraging.
Interesting battle between the two favourites.
Quite a few two-year-old races for a Monday.
Very busy, as always, so I will have a
quick look and detail those of significance. I have added a little bit more information from a tipping perspective. Please make the effort to share these posts. This has taken over an hour to complete.
2:30 Brighton -
Saeed bin Suroor has Mawahib going here. This homebred son of New Approach is worthy of note. In general, Suroor's two-year-olds have gone well this year although Royal Marine [which was on our 10 Dark Horses] disappointed on debut. He can be a touch hit and miss compared with Charlie Appleby. Still of interest.
A form horse [not entered on Group Horse] may have a chance at big odds. James Fanshawe's Keyhaven disappointed second start and that performance may hide a horse with a fighting chance at 40/1.
2:45 Ffos Las -
Henry Candy doesn't have the biggest string of juveniles and few entered as significant. Layla's Dream was entered for a Class 2 race but showed next to no ability when she ran on debut. Huge odds that day and similarly big odds today at 25/1. If betting, you will have to take a leap of faith. The only hope is the two-month absence which could detail an issue on debut which may have hidden ability. Interesting if backed.
4:55 Windsor -
Richard Hannon has a vast number of talented colts, fillies and geldings. Take a look at the list here. Dirty Rascal has made a living from finishing second. This son of Acclamation hasn't been disgraced in four starts to date. Ran well last time out behind the talented Flashcard. It may not be a problem, but a wide draw isn't the best starting point if pushed wide or using too much energy to get to the front. A pretty hot favourite at even money. Too short price for me to be interested from a wide birth but should go well.
In the good old days when Clive Cox had a small string, he used to do very well with debutantes at Windsor. They often hit the frame at double-figure odds. These days he has a string with ample ability. Venture is worthy of note. This son of Showcasing cost 230,000 euros in the ownership of Malih Al Basti. This debutant looks well found in the betting and holds decent each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less SP.
6:20 Newcastle -
Potentially a few fillies of note. Gleeful was relatively fancied on debut and ran on after showing inexperience. This daughter of Pivotal races in the ownership of Cheveley Park Stud. This homebred should improve for being off course for a month.
I'm sure Karl Burke must have been disappointed with the running of Mistress Of Love when struggling to figure after a slow start on debut at Ayr. The $1000,000 purchase in the familiar silks of Phoenix Thoroughbred Ltd started at the prohibitive odds of 2/5f. This American-bred daughter of Scat Daddy may have disliked the testing conditions. Although the going was described as good the time being over 8 seconds slow suggests it was on the soft side. Debutantes often disappoint on their racecourse bow for a myriad of reasons. Just about all trainers of two-year-old horses have much better statistics on their second start. It is a fact that experience counts. Few trainers want to give their newcomers a hard race. I suspect Mistress Of Love will run much better today. Returning to race on the all-weather is a positive. I can imagine Burke was slightly embarrassed by the debut effort and I would be surprised if she isn't there about. If available at each-way prices holds fair claims.
A few two-year-old races for Monday.
1:35 Ayr -
Mistress Of Love is interesting for Karl Burke. Spigot Lodge must be pleased to have a few talented juveniles under the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbred Ltd. You may remember that Kadar (one of our 10 Dark Horses) was meant to run over the weekend but was withdrawn under a vet's certificate. Mistress Of Love is an American-bred daughter of Scat Daddy costing $1000,000. These owners don't lack in money and I would be very surprised if this juvenile doesn't win. She has an entry at the Curragh for the Debutante Stakes (Group 2) over 7f.
1:50 Ripon -
Richard Fahey's Good Tyne Girl holds claims here.
7:40 Wolverhampton -
Richard Hannon has It's The Only Way going here. This Irish-bred son of Lilbourne Lad won his first two starts and carries a big weight which connections try to take the edge off with a 7lb apprentice. Not sure if I would jump in at short odds because these win penalties seem hard to defy. To be fair the opposition doesn't look much. *Wolf Hunter was given a significant entry early season but it looked to be next to worthless. He isn't the worst horse ever but been contesting at plating class and official rating of just 63.
* NR