Monday detailed a couple of debut winners.
Strive For Glory won on the line for Robert Cowell. It looked a poor race with the second favourite a non-runner and odds-on favourite stuck behind a wall of horses. It's all good for Group Horse but I must admit I didn't fancy the horse to win as the trainer has a poor strike rate with debutantes. I feel it won by circumstance. However, most winners are about circumstance.
At Windsor, Emten won well for Jamie Osborne and the Melbourne 10 Racing syndicate. There is little doubt the stable fancied this two-year-old to go well. The betting was a little misleading as this good-looking filly was on the edge of a betting guide which suggested a big run. She won pretty easily. It's a good sign when Osbourne's juveniles win on debut and I can imagine she will be heading to Royal Ascot.
Tuesday
Three two-year-old races on the day. Just a quick look to detail the significantly entered juveniles.
1:30 Nottingham -
Just the sole significant entry going. Richard Hannon's two-year-olds are never the easiest to assess and a few fancied of late have looked in need of the experience. Beignet is quite a well-bred filly being sired by Canford Cliffs and out of a decent mare in Cake, who did well for the stable winning on her first two starts and far from disgraced when fifth in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) beaten less than two lengths. Beignet ran well on debut at Brighton, but couldn't hold the late charge of Paul Cole's winner. This drop back to 5f will help and that race brings valuable experience. Cole's victor is probably a fair juvenile with size and scope so I can see the form of the first two holding up. A few debutantes are in opposition, and if they are fancied in the betting could, from a statistical point of view, put down a challenge. I would take a watching brief but expect Beignet to run a sound race.
2:25 Brighton -
Another Hannon two-year-old with form. Audio is the only significantly-entered juvenile in this race. This son of Equiano cost 24,000 guineas at the yearling sales. His debut effort was difficult to assess in ways. Electric Ladyland won carrying a penalty, while Saeed bin Suroor's favourite Dark Of Night fluffed his lines with a slow start. Audio wasn't overly fancied in the betting, which may suggest he was in need of the run. Also, he was racing wide for the whole trip which couldn't have helped his cause. Audio should go well in this restricted race type although it is difficult to assess that first start.
2:45 Yarmouth -
A couple of significantly-entered juveniles here. Mark Johnston's Don't Joke is expected to improve for his first start. He was fancied to go well on debut at Bath but could never get to grips with the pace of Zulu Zander, who was carrying a penalty, for an easy win at Leicester the time before. It was a fair debut if not a little bit tricky to assess. I imagine the experience will be a plus and this better ground may be more to his liking.
The other entered juveniles is Robert Cowell's Taste The Nectar. The stable had a winner on Monday when Strive For Glory won at Newcastle. This American-bred daughter of More Than Ready cost $65,000 when purchased at the Keeneland yearling sales. It is positive that this filly holds an entry of some note. However, the stable have a poor strike rate with their two-year-old debutantes which doesn't bolster confidence. I would have to take a watching brief of this filly but hope she goes well.
Jeremy Noseda's Fleeting Princess doesn't have any entries at this time but could prove the biggest danger. If priced 11/4 and less SP could take some beating.
My brother sent a little message about this 3yo Novice Stakes. I thought I would write about it from a two-year-old perspective, just to show how even the insight from Group Horse [Daily] can help (hopefully) detail the leading lights of a race.
Nine three-year-olds take part over this turning five furlongs on the standard to slow going.
This race looks out of two major hopes. There may well be more, but we will give reasons along the way.
Paul Cole's Physics is definitely the horse to beat. This bay gelding is a son of Acclamation and 180,000 yearling purchase. He was a beaten favourite on debut over this course, dropping back a furlong to this minimum trip. I like Cole at Kempton and Mrs Fitri Hay is a significant owner. In truth, the debut effort didn't inspire when a beaten favourite, finishing fifth. It looked for the world as if he fluffed his lines, went too fast and tired rapidly. Any horse can disappoint on debut. I would expect a much more polished display here from stall six. At 13/8, I'm not sure this offers much value. If drifting could make a fair bet, especially if going for an each way double.
Should be the horse to beat.
Orange Blossom has been a very frustrating horse to follow. I can imagine The Cool Silk Partnership must have thought summer turned to winter in a day because I have little doubt this daughter of Showcasing has been held in high regard. As with many two-year-olds, it doesn't take much to sour and then it is a matter of building back to winning ways. This January foal has raced at Group class but looked as though she would have struggled to win at plating class on a bad day. However, she showed ability last time out over six furlongs. It is often the case potentially talented two-year-olds lose their way and then comes good at three. I have seen it happen many times. A wide draw isn't ideal. Interesting to see she is dropping back to the minimum trip. After a few frustrating runs, this is a test for this attractive filly.
Brigadier was fancied to go well on debut at this course, giving the impression this drop back to five furlongs would be right up his alley. This son of Sepoy finished behind Orange Blossom. Punters may be fancying their chances of reversing the form over this sprint. One point of slight concern is that the statistics for this horse are poor. Any horse can defy the stats and that may well be true for Brigadier but it is a point to consider.
Mick Channon's Rakastava was odds on for his debut. There is no doubt this son of Clodovil has some limitation drifting markedly in the betting when outclassed by With Caution, trained by James Tate. Well drawn in stall two but may need to show improved form after a couple of fair but somewhat disappointing efforts.
Conclusion: An intriguing race. A few of these horses need to put disappointments behind them, which isn't the best starting point to find winners (unless you have a good reason). Physics has a lot of positives today although needs to have learned from his debut. Has sound claims, especially if drifting in the betting. Orange Blossom is the sort of horse to turn your hair grey overnight. These frustrating types often come good at some point but you may need to have skin as thick as a rhino to take another loss. If drifting to big prices on the exchanges may be worth a small win bet. The type who will win or simply disappoint. Brigadier looks to hold sound claims but the stats just put me off. Rakastava looks disappointing and not sure if this drop in distance will help.
In truth, I would side with Physics if you can get half decent odds. Orange Blossom may finally come good but an enigma.
Well, another decent day on Monday detailing a 40/1 shot who finished 4th (annoying) and Mistress Of Love who won comfortably. The latter being a horse we detailed on debut when flopping. I'm sure a few readers may have laughed seeing a 2/5f beaten. Plenty of smiles today when it drifts to 9/2 and cruises clear of the field. All the information can be seen in Group Horse 2018.
Remember the worth of this information. It doesn't just appear from a genie's lamp - I'm the one doing the polishing. It is a proven way to identify the best two-year-old horses in training.
Sure, can do the work yourself, However, you will soon appreciate the time, energy and money it takes to create something you read for free.
When the new turf season arrives in 2019 these updates will stop. You will receive a couple of 10 Dark Horse mailings - which you know are exceptional. Then, that's the end of the info. You will be able to read the stories about the winning horses after they have gone past the post. If it wasn't for some generous people paying for this site it wouldn't be available now.
I'm simply detailing this news so you can appreciate the situation and value this information. It isn't a given. If you are interested in gaining access to all the best two-year-olds in 2019 then contact me at jason@professionalgamblers.co.uk
We have lowered the price from nearly £500 to £275. Still, expensive! If you do the work yourself you will soon realise it's cheap.
To be honest, it makes very little difference to me whether you join or not. I use this information for myself and to gather my thoughts.
Anyway, enough about buying stuff.
2:35 Goodwood -
Just the one significant entry here. By all accounts, this two-year-old didn't achieve a great deal on debut. Sunday Star is priced 50/1 with bookmakers so if you fancy a speculative bet, you can only imagine the odds on the exchanges. I haven't looked but you could well be looking at 100/1+. Ed Walker's bay filly is a homebred daughter of Kodiac out of a winning mare. Racing in the ownership of D Ward, and Gerald Mosse takes the ride. Improvement is most certainly needed but an absence of almost two months could well detail there was an issue on debut. Interesting.
5:25 Leicester -
A restricted race type which usually goes to form horses. A couple of significantly entered juveniles taking part.
Blame Roberta has run four times. This bay daughter of Balme is a decent juvenile for this level. Went well at Windsor and then far from disgraced at Listed class. Should take some beating.
The betting suggests this is a two-horse race. Guess what? The other horse of note is the second favourite trained by Karl Burke, Harperelle. There must have been a pretty drastic issue with this daughter of Burwaaz as she hasn't been seen since March. That was a Class 2 race with good prize money. She didn't seem fancied in the betting [16/1] but ran on with vim. The form of that race has been franked. From a statistical point of view, she holds respectable claims. The lay-off could be an issue. I would wait for the betting to settle just in case signs are not encouraging.
Interesting battle between the two favourites.
Just a coupe of races to review for significant entries.
6:50 Wolverhampton -
Just the one horse here being Blame Roberta. Robert Cowell has a bigger string of juveniles this season which should see a few making waves. This bay daughter of Blame races in the familiar silks of Khalifa Dasmal. A relatively cheap yearling purchase at just $27,000. She made her debut back in April, when contesting a fair race at Yarmouth over the minimum trip. I was struck by the size and scope of this April foal who was slow away but ran on with some purpose. She may have been given time because of an issue or needing time to strengthen up. Interesting to see how she goes.
6:40 Widsor -
A big, old ''newcomers'' Maiden Stakes over 6f 12y on good to firm going. Richard Hannon's horses have been in good form and Swiper has been noted with one significant entry. This Irish-bred bay colt is a son of Clodovil cost £40,000 at the yearling sales.
Five two-year-old races for Friday. I will detail the significant entrants and form horses worthy of note.
2:00 Goodwood -
Just a couple of entrants. Big Boots is a son of Society Rock and tidy winner on debut at Bath. He was slightly disappointing at Windsor racing under a penalty when favourite. It will be interesting to see if he can show more without an apprentice. A high draw is an advantage.
Robert Cowell has been kept busy this early season with an increased string of two-year-olds. Blame Roberta has received a couple of significant entries. This daughter of Blame races in the ownership of Khalifa Dasmal. She looks a good yearling purchase at just $27,000. She ran a respectable fourth place on debut at Yarmouth. The form has been franked with the first three horses either winning or narrowly denied. This bay filly wasn't too far behind or given a hard race. Looks capable of better.
This looks a difficult race to assess so I would advice a watching brief.
2:20 Haydock -
Mark Johnston has been in fine form this season. Axel Jacklin looked disappointing on debut but fared much better at Newmarket when stepping up to 6f. This leggy son of Iffraaj battled hard when runner up to Usain Boat. Should go well.
Five Amarones is one of a number of horses Tom Dascombe has entered this season. This son of Alhebayheb was entered to run in the Lily Agnes but didn't take part. He was fancied on debut at Pontefract but slowly into stride even though he had a prime draw. In truth, he ran on pretty well to chase home Carey Street. Five Amarones ran a similar race at Bath over the minimum trip. Always slightly outpaced, he didn't have the pace to get to grips with Barbill or Ginger Nut. That third place did suggest some limitation. The major hope here is stepping up to 6f.
Arthur Kit hasn't received any entries for Tom Dascombe, but this debutante is well bred, the mare being Ceiling Kitty who won the Queen Mary Stakes Group 2 (2012). The betting details that this colt is first string. The stable do well at this racecourse.
2:45 Bath -
No significant entrants although New Queen and Country Rose may well be in the very near future.
3:55 Bath -
An interesting Class 3 EBF Novices' Stakes over 5f 160y on firm going.
Hua Hin is well regarded by the Hannon stable. This son of Dandy Man ran well to win on debut, although tiring in the closing stages. He was entered to run in the Lily Agnes but didn't take that route. This February foal has to shoulder a 6lb win penalty and reason why Gary Mahon takes off a valuable 5lb. I would expect Hua Hin to improve for that first start after a month off course.
Charles Hills has a few decent types this season. Ynys Mon ran in a Class 2 race on debut when stuck in the mud. This son of Olympic Glory is a good-looking colt but has temperamental issue. He has been too keen on both his last starts which may have become a habit. That is a problem. He may enjoy this firm ground and this small field shouldn't bring about traffic problems which didn't help at Chester. However, I would be worried if he is keen over this extended five furlongs especially at even money. If going a stride too fast it makes winning difficult.
7:30 Pontefract -
The best race on the day this Class 2 with win prize money of over £15,000. Just the five runners. Looks a trappy heat. Will be taking a watching brief.
4:35 Ascot - (12th May)
A Novices Staked Class 3 over 5f on good to firm going.
Ten two-year-olds take part: three with racecourse experience.
Probably a fair race with a number of big trainers. Just two significantly entered horses here.
Blown By Wind won well on debut at Windsor and supporters of Mark Johnston's colt must have been confident of making it two wins from two when priced 4/11f. There is no such thing as a certainty, and that was the case when Emaraaty Ana cruised past to win comfortably. Blown By Wind had to shoulder win penalty as he does today. This is no easy challenge against a previous winner and one or two expensive purchases.
The other horse noted by the trainer may go well at a price. Robert Cowell has a bigger string of two-year-olds and they have been running thick and fast this season. Sir Ox cost $215,000 at the yearling sales. This American-bred son of Oxbow wasn't fancied in the betting on debut at Kempton when priced 25/1. He had a wide draw which didn't help. Funnily enough, he started well but then dropped anchor (or something) and seemed to be instantly outpaced. This bay colt - in the ownership of Khalifa Dasmal - had no particular chance thereafter but show some sparkling in the final furlong. Interesting that Silvestre De Sousa is booked to ride. At odds of 16/1 he may be worth a small speculative bet. I'd rather him be contending a lesser race because one or two of these are likely to have ability (the two favourites to start).
5:50 Chelmsford -
A Novice Stakes (Plus 10) Class 4 on Standard going.
Seven two-year-olds take part: four with racecourse experience.
Two significantly entered juveniles here. So Hi Speed wasn't too fancied on debut at Newcastle but ruined any chance by pulling much too hard. The form of that race is difficult to assess and by all accounts this American-bred son of Central Banker needs to settle and find improvement. Trainer, Robert Cowell, has Pocket Dynamo in the field and shorter price so So Hi Speed may be here for a supporting role. However, the significant entry does suggest more is expected and that could be the case. This looks a competitive heat with the Appleby favourite likely to be short odds. Nonetheless, the Cowell runner is worth noting.
*Hard Forest is the other horse who has received a significant entry. She ran well on debut, but tired slightly in the closing stages to finish a creditable third. She looked to be going great guns at Newmarket but tired markedly in the closing stages. The going was testing and she may have gone a stride too fast. The race time was slow and she looked a short runner. Third start at Yarmouth was a disappointing display in ways unless the form of that race proves decent. It could be the case that it will because Michael Bell's Artair ran out a tidy winner. A wide draw isn't ideal. I can see Mark Johnston's youngster making the most of her experience and getting to the lead. These turning courses are better for horses who may well struggle to get home. She is likely to lead and if gaining a few easy lengths may take some pegging back.
A trio of debutantes who could go well. Certainly, most punters will be looking to Shellbrook to rule the roost. If talented, could win well. However, a turning course isn't the best starting point for any horse which may make one or two here value. Shame this wasn't three places.
On balance, I will take a watching brief.
NR: Hard Forest, One One Seven
Full result
Four two-year-old races for Wednesday.
2:00 Ascot -
Interesting Class 2 race over 5f on good to soft going.
Just four runners. All are worthy of note being significantly entered. Aidan O'Brien has the short priced favourite. I quite liked the look of Robert Cowell's Vikivaki on debut. She was slow away from the stalls but ran on with purpose. The form of that race has taken a few knocks which tempers enthusiasm. A couple of fillies against the colts. I would have to take a watching brief but interested to see how this daughter of Congrats goes on her second start.
Full result
2:10 Pontefract -
An EBF Novices Stakes over 5f 3y on soft going.
Quite a large field with nine juveniles. The only significant entry is for the twice-raced Geography Teacher, trained by Roger Fell. He has been backed on both his starts to date, including the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. In truth, this son of Bungle Inthejungle hasn't achieved much at all. Perhaps he hasn't show his ability. I will take a watching brief.
Full result
5:00 Brighton -
An EBF Novice Median Auction Stakes race over 5f 60y on good to soft going.
No significant entered juveniles here. Tin Hat ran very well on debut and the form of that race has been franked.
Full result
5:45 Bath -
A Maiden Stakes over 5f 10y on good to soft going.
A field of twelve two-year-olds take part, six with racecourse experience.
High Horse is interesting for Clive Cox. He has an exceptional strike rate at this course and this grey colt, a son of Dark Angel, was retained for 100,000G. Definitely looks a major player.
Full result