George Scott's Strong Power takes on Godolphin Quartet

2:25 Newmarket - 

As detailed many times thus far, we have just one significant entry to glean information and that's the Brocklesby Stakes. Don't worry, we will have much more information coming as the season progresses. To be fair, the Brocklesby has detailed a few winners including Show Me Show Me, Zulu Zander & Birkenhead, alongside placed efforts such as Heer We Go Again, Paddy Elliot & Bendy Spirit. 

George Scott's Strong Power finished second in the Brocklesby Stakes and did little wrong, a battling type who was passed in the closing half furlong, beaten by three-quarters of a length. As the form has proven, this son of Kodiac is up to winning a race. Whether he is good enough to deny not one but four horses representing Godolphin only time will tell. Saeed bin Suroor and Charlie Appleby have a couple of juveniles each. I've never seen the fourth colours (black hat) (so I wonder if they have some kind of blackhat magic going on...lol). That's a joke, of course. But it is interesting to imagine if they have ten runners in a race what coloured hats would be seen for the first time! Anyway, little things for little minds, hey. 

Charlie Appleby's Well Of Wisdom (black cap) is, at the time of writing, the most fancied of the quartet. 

We have another experienced horse who didn't run in the Brocklesby but was entered who made his debut at Windsor. Interesting to see how Richard Hannon's Lexington Quest goes here. He was very well backed on his racecourse bow but didn't achieve a great deal. It could well be the case this son of Ivawood disappointed. That may well need to be the excuse because this looks a tougher race. I wouldn't be holding my breath but neither would I lay this horse to lose at 20/1. I do think it was a significant entry being earmarked for the Doncaster race and I suspect a better performance will be seen today. 

In truth, it looks a tricky race and I would take a watching brief unless you fancy a speculative punt on Lexington Quest if you can get some crazy odds on the exchanges and cross your fingers and toes. He may be backed if the sound of the Thames got to him that day at Windsor.

5:25 Chelmsford - 

Just a quick note detailing any Brocklesby runners/entrants here. Michael Appleby has Gracie's Girl taking part. She held an entry for the Brocklesby and since been a non-runner for whatever reason. This daughter of Heeraat is out of a debut-winning mare [Queen's Revenge] who looked quite promising for Tim Easterby and competed in the Hilary Needler Trophy Conditions Stakes at Beverly and raced at Listed class at two and three. Gracie's Girl cost just £4,000 at the yearling sales in the ownership of Robin Oliver, who is a loyal patron of The Homestead Stables in Oakham, Leicestershire. This Novice Auction Stakes is a pretty restrictive race which means it shouldn't take the world of winning. Appleby had three entered two-year-olds last season: Loch Ness Monster, Aquarius & Walkman. Loch Ness Monster & Aquarius proved capable juveniles achieving winning status, the latter on debut, and competed at Group class. 

In truth, Appleby doesn't have the largest string of two-year-olds and they can be the good, bad and ugly. Would I bet on Gracie's Girl at 20/1? No. But it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see her run a race. 

Please note all three horses noted are forwarded simply because they held an entry for the Brocklesby Stakes.  

Betting on Saeed bin Suroor for a Winning 2019 Flat Turf Season

So many horse trainers.

I have a few favourites and one is Saeed bin Suroor. He is a such a professional, studious and likeable man. I've seen him a good few times at Great Yarmouth Racecourse. I really need to think of a question to ask him! To be fair, I don't like to push myself on people and respect that a day at the races isn't a Q & A session. 

I felt sorry for bin Suroor when Charlie Appleby kept getting the lion's share of the talented horse, especially two-year-olds. It annoyed me, so I can only imagine how he must have felt. Politics, hey. 

Anyway, we all know that Godolphin is not lacking when it comes to woning, training and winning with exceptional horses. 

You know by now, the Group Horse [Daily] follows two-year-old horse racing to a higher level than anyone on the internet. If you know better, then send them our way and I will have a Q & A session. Even Steve Taplin wouldn't want to meet me on Mastermind. Even my general knowledge is good!

I've started my horse trainer study on Saeed bin Suroor. It isn't, as I keep saying, a pleasurable experience. There's nothing wrong with Mr bin Suroor, his horses or his success. I just need someone to do all the work for me, detail the finds and I'll sit back in West Palm Beach, Florida watching those funny-looking turkey vulture which circles about five miles high. I guess they are just waiting for something to die. 

Going back to a given year...it feels a long time ago, he has run over 400 two-year-olds. My data covers the Flat turf season so it isn't all the season. Anyway, I have been number churning. Not got too far into the stats as yet. I know it will take a few days. Neverending. Very boring work. But crucial to just one of many parts of my understanding. 

Interesting point. From all his debutantes (my data, years...etc) he has never had a debut winner over 12/1. Saying that he hasn't had a huge number of horses start over 12/1.The point why statistics need to be assessed within their context. 

Best get back to work. The 2019 Brocklesby Stakes is getting closer by the day, and I would so love to have all this data stuff concluded. 

Time will tell. 

Thursday's 2YO Update (11th October)

Very interest day yesterday with all noted juveniles either winning or showing ability. When you consider it comes from a basic list - what a foundation to build your knowledge.

Let's take a look at today's info.

5:45 Chelmsford - 

Karl Burke is a great horse trainer. I've said it many times but if you can't make money from betting his juveniles you're doing something wrong. Collect Call has been noted by the stable. Has run well on all three starts including a taste of pattern class back in July. Not been seen for almost 100 days. 

Collect Call 11/8f 2nd 

Note: Ran well, leading for a long way and touched 1.12 in-running, finishing second. However, no match for the eventual winner who come from off the pace. A nice-looking filly, Aldana.

6:15 Chelmsford - 

Saeed bin Suroor's talents are shining brightly this two-year-old season. Good for him. A very loyal, humble man who shouldn't be in the shade of any other handler. The wining of Royal Marine taking Group 1 victory at Longchamp, France must have been a day he had waited for too long. 

Back to the grassroots level. Mawahib has been fancied to go well on both starts to date but not lived up her billing. She wasn't helped by being bumped and stumbled, which saw this daughter of New Approach run from off the pace when the first two finishers set a brisk pace and held a distinct advantage. Interesting that bin Suroor is stepping this chestnut filly up in trip. Maybe better than seen and worthy of respect. 

Mawahib 8/1 2nd 

Note: Drifted to big prices on the exchanges (16+) and ran a respectable race to finish second, returning at odds of 8/1.

Tuesday's 2YO Racing Update (9th October)

1:30 Catterick - 

Archie Watson's Summer Blossom is as consistent as they come. Did nothing wrong last time out when leading for most and just outpointed in the closing stages. A battling type who is likely to try to lead. Deserves to taste victory. I'm always slightly concerned juveniles with a number of hard races may regress at some point. However, this daughter of Society Rock is a hearty type. 

Summer Blossom 10/11f 3rd

3:00 Brighton - 

Catan put in a bold show last time out for Roger Charlton. Backed from huge odds, no doubt a consequence of certain people knowing this colt was going to do front-running tactics. Under a weight penalty, he ran a sterling race being collared in the shadow of the post. 

Catan 11/4 1st

Note: So pleased to see Royal Marine win at Longchamp, Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere for trainer Saeed bin Suroor at Longchamp, France on Sunday, 7 October. This colt was detailed on our 10 Dark Horse Mailing. 

See what we said about Royal Marine. 

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Thursday's 2YO Update (4th October)

A slightly quieter day - but interesting.

4:00 Lingfield - 

7f (7f1y) Injured Jockeys Fund EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo)

Runners: 12

Going: Standard

Analysis:

For starters, we note that the favourite for this race is one of our 10 Dark Horses. Silent Hunter is trained by Saeed bin Suroor. This bay colt is a son of Dutch Art out of a debut-winning mare who achieved four wins from fourteen starts. She was trained by Dermot Weld and won twice at Group 3 class. She was priced 9/2 for the Irish 1000 Guineas but finished 7th. A highest of official rating of 109 detailed a talented horse. Silent Hunter has been entered for a couple of significant races this year. Interesting. 

Other noted horses include Voltaic who finished third in the Convivial Maiden Stakes. Running off the pace it is possible this son of Power was flattered. He wasn't overly fancied next start at Sandown when stepping up to one mile. That was a disappointing display. Perhaps, dropping back to 7f will see a little more vim.    

Voltiac 6/1 3rd
Silent Hunter 5/4 4th 

Conclusion: Doesn't look the strongest of fields and if Silent Hunter has a touch of class, connections will be hopeful. 

6:15 Chelmsford - 

7f totepool Cashback Club At totesport.com Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo)

Runners: 14

Going: Standard

Analysis: 

A big field but interesting.

Jeremy Noseda hasn't had a vintage year by any stretch of the imagination. Just four horses received significant entries this year. None of any particular note. Quasar has been noted. I expected this American-bred son of Orb to show up well on debut at Yarmouth. This $250,000 breeze-up purchase ran a fair race in fifth place beaten four lengths. This bay filly is in the ownership of Marc Keller, who is a significant patron to this stable. I was left with the impression that Quasar was a touch unlucky and would benefit from this experience, especially this step up to 7f. If touching each-way prices would be a decent bet. 

Note: Quasar ran too bad to be true. Must have disappointed. 

We Like Her A Lot is the only other entry of note. Richard Hannon's filly wasn't fancied in the betting on debut and didn't show a great deal in sixth place. May improve for the experience and this step up in trip but needs to find much more today. 

Quasar 4/1 8th 
We Like Her A Lot 14/1 4th 

6:45 Chelmsford - 

1m2f Weatherbys Global Stallions App Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo)

Runners: 5

Going: Standard

Analysis: 

Michael Bell's Allmankind has run consistently in three starts to date. Has achieved an official rating of 87. Doesn't look to be one of the stable's better juveniles. A prohibitive price. 

Le Don De Vie has recieved a similar Class 2 entry.  

Mark Johnston has a vast string of two-year-olds and Caplin looks to be a disappointment although something of a mystery why connections entered this son of Cape Cross in the Convivial Maiden Stakes. Perhaps the owner wanted a couple of badges! Given another hard task when racing at Goodwood at Class 2. This looks an easier race but nothing shown in two starts to date to enthral. 

Natty Night is another to have received a Class 2 entry. Willaim Muir hasn't had many two-year-old runners this year but it is interesting this son of Nathaniel was given such an entry because he is the only horse for the stable this season. Showed little to nothing that day but horses can disappoint on debut. Priced 80/1 today. A tall order but a significant step up in distance may see more. It isn't impossible this horse may run better than its odds. 

Allmankind 4/9 1st
Caplin 12/1 2nd 
Le Don De Vie 11/4 3rd 
Natty Night 20/1 4th 

Friday's 2YO Update

 2:00 Chester - 

Andrew Balding does well at Chester and always worth noting when in the ownership of J C Smith. Indomitable is a bay colt who has been beaten narrowly in both starts to date. His latest start, finishing second in the Convivial Maiden Stakes, was a great result and worthy favourite for connections. 

Indomitable  



3:25 Sandown - 

Quite an interesting race. 

Ed Dunlop doesn't have that decent string of juveniles but Venedgar is a consistent horse who has achieved an official rating of 83. This determined son of Dubawi has been beaten by a couple of smart Gosden two-year-olds. 

John Gosden may be a thorn in Venedgar's side because of Kosciusko has been noted by connections. 

Wojood is interesting. Hugo Palmer's charge is one of few two-year-olds to gain a significant entry but disappointed almost a month ago. Something went amiss at Newmarket. Could go well at odds of 22/1. At that price, is worthy as a speculative each-way wager. 

Note: Wojood was a big price and too keen. I don't think connections was too concerned with disappointing today and if getting a low handicap mark will be winning. This horse needs to kerb its temperament but that should happen sooner rather than later.  

4:00 Salisbury -

Simon Crisford's Jash won well on debut. This son of Kodiac was well backed and cruised to a four-and-a-half length victory. The form of that race has been franked. This smart prospect was meant to race at this course but it was abandoned due to a chaffer grub infestation. Has to defy a win penalty which makes life harder. 

4:35 Salisbury - 

Hugo Palmer has Red October going here. This son of Dawn Approach cost 50,000 guineas at the yearling sales. Palmer can go well with his debutantes and should run a race. 

4:40 Doncaster - 

Saeeb bin Suroor has done better this season than last. He is still rather hit and miss and something of a poor relation to Charlie Appleby. However, Royal Marine may be worth a second glance. This home-bred son of Raven's Pass was fancied on debut at Newmarket but looks to have disappointed behind Jash who is decent two-year-old. Royal Marine looks one of the better-entered juveniles and has win and place claims at 6/1. 

Note: Once again proved correct. Royal Marine detailed on one of our two 10 Dark Horse mailing lists. Failed on debut - wins easily the second start after drifting markedly in the betting. It doesn't get any better than this. Group Horse Knows!  

Ralph Beckett has been going well of late with a couple of winners and debutants who have shown ability [Fragrant Bell & Sam Cook]. James Park Wood is intriguing. Beckett can win on debut and this son of Australia who cost 190,000 guineas has received a significant entry. The way his debutantes have gone of late could well hit the frame. 

Monday's 2YO Update

Quite a few two-year-old races for a Monday. 

Very busy, as always, so I will have a quick look and detail those of significance. I have added a little bit more information from a tipping perspective. Please make the effort to share these posts. This has taken over an hour to complete. 

2:30 Brighton - 

Saeed bin Suroor has Mawahib going here. This homebred son of New Approach is worthy of note. In general, Suroor's two-year-olds have gone well this year although Royal Marine [which was on our 10 Dark Horses] disappointed on debut. He can be a touch hit and miss compared with Charlie Appleby. Still of interest. 

A form horse [not entered on Group Horse] may have a chance at big odds. James Fanshawe's Keyhaven disappointed second start and that performance may hide a horse with a fighting chance at 40/1. 

2:45 Ffos Las - 

Henry Candy doesn't have the biggest string of juveniles and few entered as significant. Layla's Dream was entered for a Class 2 race but showed next to no ability when she ran on debut. Huge odds that day and similarly big odds today at 25/1. If betting, you will have to take a leap of faith. The only hope is the two-month absence which could detail an issue on debut which may have hidden ability. Interesting if backed. 

4:55 Windsor - 

Richard Hannon has a vast number of talented colts, fillies and geldings. Take a look at the list here. Dirty Rascal has made a living from finishing second. This son of Acclamation hasn't been disgraced in four starts to date. Ran well last time out behind the talented Flashcard. It may not be a problem, but a wide draw isn't the best starting point if pushed wide or using too much energy to get to the front. A pretty hot favourite at even money. Too short price for me to be interested from a wide birth but should go well. 

In the good old days when Clive Cox had a small string, he used to do very well with debutantes at Windsor. They often hit the frame at double-figure odds. These days he has a string with ample ability. Venture is worthy of note. This son of Showcasing cost 230,000 euros in the ownership of Malih Al Basti. This debutant looks well found in the betting and holds decent each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. 

6:20 Newcastle - 

Potentially a few fillies of note. Gleeful was relatively fancied on debut and ran on after showing inexperience.  This daughter of Pivotal races in the ownership of Cheveley Park Stud. This homebred should improve for being off course for a month. 

I'm sure Karl Burke must have been disappointed with the running of Mistress Of Love when struggling to figure after a slow start on debut at Ayr. The $1000,000 purchase in the familiar silks of Phoenix Thoroughbred Ltd started at the prohibitive odds of 2/5f. This American-bred daughter of Scat Daddy may have disliked the testing conditions. Although the going was described as good the time being over 8 seconds slow suggests it was on the soft side. Debutantes often disappoint on their racecourse bow for a myriad of reasons. Just about all trainers of two-year-old horses have much better statistics on their second start. It is a fact that experience counts. Few trainers want to give their newcomers a hard race. I suspect Mistress Of Love will run much better today. Returning to race on the all-weather is a positive. I can imagine Burke was slightly embarrassed by the debut effort and I would be surprised if she isn't there about. If available at each-way prices holds fair claims. 

Saturday's 2YO Racing Tips

I hope you have been following the two mailings we sent out and these recent updates. There is one thing Group Horse does - it delivers. If you don't agree, then take a look at the horses we have given and continue to do so over the months. 

Just a few noted successes on Friday: 

• 2:05 Newmarket - Layaleena, trained by Sir Michael Stoute 
• 3:00 York - Emaraaty Ana wins the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) 
• 3:15 Newmarket - Sangarius, a hot favourite for Sir Michael Stoute wins on debut and going places 
• 4:15 York - Commanding Officer, detailed on our 10 Dark Horse Mailing, wins the Convivial Maiden 
• 6:55 Salisbury - Kuwait Currency wins at Listed class 

I don't know about you, but I've not seen anyone else detailing such class horse from a limited selection!    

Let's take a look at the better two-year-olds running today:

1:40 Newmarket - 

We've seen some real talents racing over the last few days and it will be interesting to see how Saeed bin Suroor's Royal Marine goes. This homebred son of Raven's Pass who is out of a once-raced mare. This bay colt looks to be one of the stable's better juveniles. As I always mention, debutantes can be a law unto themselves. However, I do think it is a positive this April foal races at Newmarket. 

Simon Crisford is a very talented trainer, especially at priming debutantes. You may have noticed one of our 10 Dark Horses ran on Friday, Imperial Charm. Just denied in third place beaten by two other juveniles we noted as class acts [Layaleena & Ice Gala, for good measure we gave the fourth, too, Dandhu]. Crisford could well have a decent prospect going here in the shape of Jash. This bay son of Kodiac cost 185,000 guineas at the yearling sales. I'd be pretty confident this two-year-old has some ability. The stable is very good with debutantes which give greater hope. 

5:15 Windsor - 

Jeremy Noseda hasn't had too many talented juveniles this season. However, Lady Cosette is going in the right direction. To be fair, this bay filly is one of the best two-year-olds in the stable (not the best year). She ran well on debut when needing the run. A gallant second at Goodwood over 7f. Dropping back in distance shouldn't be a problem and a horse I suspect will take some beating. 

As usual, there are no easy races. Andrew Balding has been in exceptional form and for that reason, Bye Bye Hong Kong catches the eye. This American-bred son of Street Sense was a beaten favourite on debut when third at Newmarket on soft going. A horse worthy of note in the silks of King Power Racing Co Ltd. If touching each-way prices looks a very good bet. 

Finoah has been knocking on the door. This son of Kodiac, trained by Tom Dascombe, has been a model of consistency and achieved an official rating of 85. Unlucky not to have won with five placed efforts. Has claims but may be susceptible to one or two lightly raced horses and have to be careful that after so many hard races may regress at some point. A horse with a chance if running his race.

Just to make it a little tougher we have Typhoon Ten, who won on debut and has to shoulder a winner's penalty. No easy task against the potentially useful opposition. He struggled last time out when dropping in distance and it may well have been the penalty which saw him lose. A well-entered horse who may not have the class for pattern races so keeping to this level for now. 

Conclusion: A tough race in ways. I would favour Lady Cosette and Bye Bye Hong Kong. The latter may be a decent each-way bet if prices allow. 

6:00 Redcar - 

Concello is noted as one of Archie Watson's better two-year-olds, from a decent string. The winning penalty is never the best sign but a capable juvenile.        

Wednesday's 2YO Racing Tips

A quick look at Wednesday's entrants of significance. 

2:10 Catterick - 

A couple of entrants here. Kuwait Station was meant to run the other day but withdrawn by David O'Meara. Last in the Coventry Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot but a horse who won well on debut. Has to shoulder a win penalty which makes life harder. A drop in class but whether you would want to jump in at odds on only time will tell. 

Karl Burke must think something of Havana Ooh Na Na. This full brother to Havana Grey was fancied on debut at Hamilton but struggled to get competitive against more experienced rivals. In truth, this chestnut colt wasn't ready that day although I imagine connections thought he was. Stepping up to 5 1/2f in a good value race at York, he showed a little bit more. This 6f may be to Havana Ooh Na Na's advantage, although the course does often favour speedy types so he wouldn't want to be slow into stride. Burke had him entered for the Dragon Stakes at Sandown before making his debut, which indicates some hope. I feel this colt is a slow learner who may win when getting to grips with what racing is all about. Could hold each way claims. 

3:10 Catterick - 

Nursery races aren't may betting medium. However, we have a few significant entrant here. Amadeus Grey isn't one of Tim Easterby's better types but runner-up on a couple of starts. 

Aussie View is top weight for Mark Johnston. He has been pretty consistent and achieved a win but disappointed at Royal Ascot when competing in the Chesham Stakes Listed race. A durable horse who battles. 

Saeed bin Suroor still seems the poor relation to Charlie Appleby and must feel quiet despondent in ways. Jfoul is one of three entrant for the good man but one of the lesser lights. This bay colt has been fancied on all three starts. The step up to 7f show him win by a neck. 

Other to receive entries: Ventura Bay. 

3:30 Bath - 

Anthem Of Peace held an entry early season but looks very disappointing. Unless something astounding happens, a horse to watch. Would be much better off in a nursery although will pick up some prize money so a master move by Meehan. 

6:20 Sandown - 

Heartwarming has been noted by Clive Cox, who has a decent bunch of juveniles. Ran well on debut at Sandown behind Kurious who is similarly owned by Hot To Trot Racing.

Wednesday's 2yo Horse Racing Update

Just the three races today:

2:00 Hamilton - 

Axel Jacklin has received a couple of entries from trainer Mark Johnston. He showed up well second time out at Newmarket when stepping up in distance. Finished fourth next start at Haydock, which looked a disappointing effort. However, the first two are probably fair types so may have run his race. 

Tony Coyle's Broken Spear has been a consistent horse since an admirable second in the Brocklesby Stakes. He has been beaten by a number of talented juveniles and seems as good at 6f as the minimum trip. There's always a slight concern that a horse may regress after a few hard race (which they often turn out to be when placed) so worth being cautious at short odds although respected. 

2:20 Wolverhampton - 

Barend Boy looked the type of horse to lose his maiden tag with haste after a fine debut effort at Leicester. He didn't do much wrong when placed at Newmarket, stepping up to 6f. This son of Oasis Dream disappointed at Nottingham. He bucked when leaving the stalls which may have been a sign the saddle pinched. He traveled ok but tired quite tamely at the furlong pole and somewhat eased. It was a poor effort which leaves question marks. The form of the race is decent with the winner, Cool Exhibit, likely to go to Royal Ascot, while the second wasn't disgraced next time out. At best, Barend Boy has claims but you need to forgive a lackluster run, which may be a sign of regression.

Saeeb bin Suroor will be hoping this season is better than last; it can't be worse. Burj is the only two-year-old from his string to receive entries to date. This bay son of Dansili ran well on debut at Newbury when placed third. He is a professional type who looks sure to run his race. A leading player. 

6:00 Kempton - 

Ralph Beckett does pretty well with his two-year-old debutantes at Kempton. Cruck Railie is a 60,000G yearling purchase. Interesting to note she was given a significant entry a few weeks ago so may be one of the stable's better fillies. A prime draw may be a blessing if well educated. Worth noting if backed. 

6:10 Wetherby - 

Missed this race at the time. Pink Flamingo had been given two or three entries and looked well fancied around even money with bookmakers. Could hold the winning Cocoabala who shouldered a penalty and showed a much better attitude today compared with last time out when getting hot and bothered.

Beautiful Memory, Saeed bin Suroor

Saeed bin Suroor must have been pleased to seen the end of 2017. His string of two-year-olds being depleted to a point of disgrace while Charlie Appleby was the golden boy in blue. 

Even in the darkest times, Suroor has talents lurking in the shadows. Beautiful Memory shone brightly last time out after a couple of placed efforts. 

This home bred daughter of Invincible Spirit has always been held in some regard by connections. Fancied on her first two starts, this March foal wasn't beaten far over 7f but showed marked improvement when returning in January stepping up to 1m 2f. The application of the hood is used once more. Difficult to assess the form of that race but with an ''easy'' 7-length victory it was a great performance. 

This Novice Stakes is restricted to three-year-olds. Beautiful Memory has a win penalty which is negated to some extent by 5lb apprentice William Cox. 

A few fair sorts in opposition so this will be a measure of her ability if prevailing.