Bill The Butcher Makes His Return (12th September)

5:20 Chelmsford - 

Just a quick look at this race. 

As always proving the point, the first three horses in the betting are all significantly entered as forwarded by Group Horse. It's the reason why our information sees top-class two-year-olds win every pattern race throughout the season. You really don't get any better. Anyway, enough about all that.

6f Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo). 

Readers may have seen our post which stated Bill The Butcher was fancied to go well on debut at Windsor, and one of the best two-year-olds in the Richard Spencer stable. Rebel Racing has been blessed with a number of exceptional talents over the years. 

To be fair, this son of Starspanglebanner had a stiff task when making his first start, facing winners, form horses and unraced talents. This February foal wasn't best away from the stalls, which basically gave him little chance of winning. Looking inexperienced throughout the race, this £64,000 yearling purchase faded in the final furlong to finish fifth of nine. 

He looked a raw, big baby, with much to learn. 

After 20-days off course, he should be wiser and better equipped. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see he shows some inexperience on this second start. 

A wide draw on a turning course isn't the best position to start. Even over sprint distances, you do not want your bet to be racing three or four wide on the bend because it is an incredibly difficult position to win from.

Also, if dropping in behind, you don't want to be too far off the pace to talented, experienced horses. All these aspects need to be considered because you don't want to fall short with your assessment.

Reviewing Group Horse's, you will see Bill The Butcher has been given two significant entries. 

I must admit this hasn't been a vintage year for Spencer's two-year-olds and make no mistake that does bring down the general standard. I don't think any of the stable's juveniles are anything special. Skontonovski is probably the best and he isn't a star in the making, although capable of winning races. 

In truth, this race has a strange look about it. 

Last Surprise is a decent juvenile from Simon Crisford, an easy debut winner, who is on something of a recovery mission after attempts at a higher class. He has to shoulder a win penalty which doesn't make life easy. It takes talent to win under a penalty. An official rating of 85 details a very capable juvenile. There is always a chance this juvenile has regressed. 

It's a similar dilemma with Saeed bin Suroor's Dubai Romance. This chestnut daughter of Dubawi was fancied to go well on debut but ran no race. She hasn't been seen for over three months which suggests there was an issue that day. Better should be seen today. If very strong in the market, I would be expecting a bold show. On breeding, you may well wonder why she isn't racing over further. Perhaps they feel they can get away with 6f but it is a slight worry. 

Shoot To Kill was a big price on debut but ran well and beaten by a length or two. He stepped up in class when returning to Ascot and disappointed. That was a tough race so he may have paid the price of trying to win the race and faded fast. Another horse that hasn't been seen for about seven weeks. May have claims if back to best. Stall one is a positive and they may lead. 

Conclusion: At first instance I was looking at Bill The Butcher will some appeal. Having reviewed his debut, it was a decent start to proceedings. He looked very inexperienced that day and it wouldn't surprise me if he is still on a big learning curve. Turning courses can make life difficult for a horse that may still be a touch green behind the ears. Also, a wide draw may compound the problem if not briskly into stride. It would be more appealing if there were three places for each-way backers. I will be keeping an eye on the betting on the exchanges. The main thing that would sway me to bet is if this colt drifted markedly in the betting to a point it held some value. He may well be a different horse today and win well. However, this doesn't look the easiest of races. The two favourite are potentially smart juveniles and the added problem is that both can be viewed from one extreme to the other. If both have regressed or just not living up to expectation, it could turn out to be a pretty poor race. However, if both are back to best it may well be a very tough challenge.

In addition, the Shaun Keightly debutant, San Juan, cost 50,000 euros as a breeze-up (2yo) sale, which implies this son of Tagula could have ability. On balance, I would have to take a watching brief. 

Skontonovski Heads to Windsor for Second Start

Richard Spencer hasn't had a vintage two-year-old season. Taking a look at our recent update, I see the Newmarket trainer has revealed 10 juveniles stabled at Sefton Lodge, in the ownership of Phil Cunningham, and the familiar racing silks of Rebel Racing. 

Skontonovski is in the ownership of Rebel Racing Premier II. This son of Harbour Watch is out of a Listed-winning mare, who predominantly, enjoyed sprint racing.  Skontonovski cost £50,000 at the yearling sales. 

By all accounts, from the vibes we have received about this colt, he is well worth that sum and potentially a lot more.  

This February foal has been detailed on our 10 Dark Horse Mailing and ran creditably on debut at Newmarket. It was a particularly hot race with Charlie Appleby's Lazuli, winning in grand style (another of our 10 Dark Horses). Skontonovski was well backed on debut but had little luck on his racecourse bow. A bump leaving the stalls saw him off the pace. Then trouble in running. Oisin Murphy was booked to ride. However, that race had to be put down to experience, as he finished in some style under a considerate ride in 5th position. There was a lot to like about that race and the effort of those who finished towards the lead. 

I have little doubt this is one of the Spencer better if not best two-year-olds in the stable. We detailed this fact before debut. However, keep reading, as we have a couple of other juveniles yet to make their debut for the yard which has a touch of class. 

Skontonoviski is entered to run at 6:00 Windsor (Monday, 19th August). I see there has been money for the horse, which opened with a few bookies at 6/1. 

As they say, there is no such thing as an easy race. 

Saeed bin Suroor's Lost In Time, ran a fine race last time out at Goodwood and looks a tough nut to crack. He travels well and from a low draw could well lead. 

Followers of Group Horse Daily will know that Written Broadcast is held in some regard by Richard Hannon, a relatively expensive yearling purchase at 150,000 euros. This son of Gutaifan was fancied to go well in the same race as Lost In Time at Goodwood. However, there was definitely something amiss that day and he finished down the field. Considering he was priced 5/2, it would be a brave soul to say he will not be a major threat if back to best. 

I know a few followers of the page will be betting each-way, so I hope Skontonovski hits the frame if not tasting victory. 

Good luck if you are betting in this race. 

Update: Skontonovski - non-runner

As mentioned earlier, Richard Spencer has a couple of debutantes which you need to write down. 

Cruyff - Richard Spencer

This son of Dutch Art cost £90,000 at the yearling sales and one of the best juveniles in the stable. 

Bill The Butcher - 

This chestnut colt is a son of Starspangledbanner out of a winning mare. He cost £64,000. 

Other horses worthy of note for Richard Spencer:

One Step Beyond was disappointing last time out and is better than seen.

Emaraty Hero cost £55,000 and held in some regard.

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Saturday's 2YO Update (3rd November)

Nothing much to report yesterday - with a non-runner (Battle Of Waterloo). 

12:15 Newmarket -

Soft going. 

Quite a few debutantes here. Material Girl has valuable race experience with three fair efforts. Richard Spencer is a talented trainer who does well with a limited number of two-year-olds. This bay daughter of Pivotal cost £52,000 at the yearling sales. Ran respectably over course and distance on debut when relatively fancied in the betting. Although placed fifth was beaten three lengths. Didn't do much wrong second start when third. The form of the Kempton race, last time out, has been franked. A relatively wide draw and running wide made life hard. An official rating of 72 sets an average parameter. Has claims but may be vulnerable to a decent horse. 

Material Girl 20/1 2nd 

Note: The favourite won easily but Material Girl went pretty well at big odds to take second place. 

12:50 Newmarket - 

Imperial Charm has been knocking on the door. This bay filly is a daughter of Dubawi. Simon Crisford is a fine trainer who knows his horses and this April foal ran a sterling race on debut when placed third but beaten just half a length. She returned over course and distance. Punters may have been disappointed that the 6/4f finished someway down the field in third place. In truth, she bumped into a couple of live talents in Sunday Star (Ed Walker) & Maqsad (William Haggas). Definitely one of the better two-year-olds in the stable. Always a slight concern about the testing ground but if not inconvenienced has strong claims. 

Imperial Charm 11/10 1st

Note: Easy victory for Imperial Charm who has a decent level of ability. 

4:30 Newcastle - 

Another Richard Spencer two-year-old. You Never Can Tell is a decent juvenile illustrated by an official rating of 94. A winning debut. Far from a disgraced second start at Listed class when fourth beaten the same number of lengths. Two attempts at Group class saw this son of Elzaam finish last of seven and eight. This is a marked drop in class. Looking at the betting we see pretty prohibitive odds at 1/4f. Has to shoulder a win penalty. Also, you have to be careful that he hasn't regressed. In truth, this should be an opportunity to pick up some easy prize money. 

You Never Can Tell 1/2f

Note: You Never Can Tell had been dropped in class and won well at odds-on. 

Sunday's 2YO Update (14th October)

2:35 Goodwood - 

William Knight doesn't have too many juveniles in his string but a very capable trainer. Busker has proven to be a progressive horse, who looked to hold every chance second start when beaten by a talent. Then, seemingly, something of a surprise winner at Newbury when tasting victory at odds of 25/1. Has to defy a win penalty but a horse with plenty of pace who is likely to lead. 

The only other entrant is Cookupastorm who won second start. Has to shoulder a win penalty. Cheek pieces have been applied for the first time. 

Busker 9/4 2nd 
Cookupastorm 10/1 6th

Note: Busker ran well under a penalty but outclassed by Mick Channon's Chairmanoftheboard who was very well backed. Cookupastorm didn't handle conditions.  

3:45 Goodwood - 

Mister Chiang isn't one of the better two-year-olds in Mark Johnston's stable but finished second last time out.    

Mister Chiange 7/2 2nd

Note: Mister Chiang did all the donkey work and was beaten at the line. A creditable second and may have done a little too much in front.