The Exception to the Rule


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Thursday, 4 October 2018

Thursday's 2YO Update (4th October)

Silent Hunter at Chelmsford
A slightly quieter day - but interesting.

4:00 Lingfield - 

7f (7f1y) Injured Jockeys Fund EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo)

Runners: 12

Going: Standard

Analysis:

For starters, we note that the favourite for this race is one of our 10 Dark Horses. Silent Hunter is trained by Saeed bin Suroor. This bay colt is a son of Dutch Art out of a debut-winning mare who achieved four wins from fourteen starts. She was trained by Dermot Weld and won twice at Group 3 class. She was priced 9/2 for the Irish 1000 Guineas but finished 7th. A highest of official rating of 109 detailed a talented horse. Silent Hunter has been entered for a couple of significant races this year. Interesting. 

Other noted horses include Voltaic who finished third in the Convivial Maiden Stakes. Running off the pace it is possible this son of Power was flattered. He wasn't overly fancied next start at Sandown when stepping up to one mile. That was a disappointing display. Perhaps, dropping back to 7f will see a little more vim.    

Voltiac 6/1 3rd
Silent Hunter 5/4 4th 

Conclusion: Doesn't look the strongest of fields and if Silent Hunter has a touch of class, connections will be hopeful. 

6:15 Chelmsford - 

7f totepool Cashback Club At totesport.com Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo)

Runners: 14

Going: Standard

Analysis: 

A big field but interesting.

Jeremy Noseda hasn't had a vintage year by any stretch of the imagination. Just four horses received significant entries this year. None of any particular note. Quasar has been noted. I expected this American-bred son of Orb to show up well on debut at Yarmouth. This $250,000 breeze-up purchase ran a fair race in fifth place beaten four lengths. This bay filly is in the ownership of Marc Keller, who is a significant patron to this stable. I was left with the impression that Quasar was a touch unlucky and would benefit from this experience, especially this step up to 7f. If touching each-way prices would be a decent bet. 

Note: Quasar ran too bad to be true. Must have disappointed. 

We Like Her A Lot is the only other entry of note. Richard Hannon's filly wasn't fancied in the betting on debut and didn't show a great deal in sixth place. May improve for the experience and this step up in trip but needs to find much more today. 

Quasar 4/1 8th 
We Like Her A Lot 14/1 4th 

6:45 Chelmsford - 

1m2f Weatherbys Global Stallions App Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo)

Runners: 5

Going: Standard

Analysis: 

Michael Bell's Allmankind has run consistently in three starts to date. Has achieved an official rating of 87. Doesn't look to be one of the stable's better juveniles. A prohibitive price. 

Le Don De Vie has recieved a similar Class 2 entry.  

Mark Johnston has a vast string of two-year-olds and Caplin looks to be a disappointment although something of a mystery why connections entered this son of Cape Cross in the Convivial Maiden Stakes. Perhaps the owner wanted a couple of badges! Given another hard task when racing at Goodwood at Class 2. This looks an easier race but nothing shown in two starts to date to enthral. 

Natty Night is another to have received a Class 2 entry. Willaim Muir hasn't had many two-year-old runners this year but it is interesting this son of Nathaniel was given such an entry because he is the only horse for the stable this season. Showed little to nothing that day but horses can disappoint on debut. Priced 80/1 today. A tall order but a significant step up in distance may see more. It isn't impossible this horse may run better than its odds. 

Allmankind 4/9 1st
Caplin 12/1 2nd 
Le Don De Vie 11/4 3rd 
Natty Night 20/1 4th