Tuesday's 2YO Update (30th April)

Monday detailed a couple of debut winners. 

Strive For Glory won on the line for Robert Cowell. It looked a poor race with the second favourite a non-runner and odds-on favourite stuck behind a wall of horses. It's all good for Group Horse but I must admit I didn't fancy the horse to win as the trainer has a poor strike rate with debutantes. I feel it won by circumstance. However, most winners are about circumstance. 

At Windsor, Emten won well for Jamie Osborne and the Melbourne 10 Racing syndicate. There is little doubt the stable fancied this two-year-old to go well. The betting was a little misleading as this good-looking filly was on the edge of a betting guide which suggested a big run. She won pretty easily. It's a good sign when Osbourne's juveniles win on debut and I can imagine she will be heading to Royal Ascot. 

Tuesday

Three two-year-old races on the day. Just a quick look to detail the significantly entered juveniles. 

1:30 Nottingham - 

Just the sole significant entry going. Richard Hannon's two-year-olds are never the easiest to assess and a few fancied of late have looked in need of the experience. Beignet is quite a well-bred filly being sired by Canford Cliffs and out of a decent mare in Cake, who did well for the stable winning on her first two starts and far from disgraced when fifth in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) beaten less than two lengths. Beignet ran well on debut at Brighton, but couldn't hold the late charge of Paul Cole's winner. This drop back to 5f will help and that race brings valuable experience. Cole's victor is probably a fair juvenile with size and scope so I can see the form of the first two holding up. A few debutantes are in opposition, and if they are fancied in the betting could, from a statistical point of view, put down a challenge. I would take a watching brief but expect Beignet to run a sound race. 

2:25 Brighton - 

Another Hannon two-year-old with form. Audio is the only significantly-entered juvenile in this race. This son of Equiano cost 24,000 guineas at the yearling sales. His debut effort was difficult to assess in ways. Electric Ladyland won carrying a penalty, while Saeed bin Suroor's favourite Dark Of Night fluffed his lines with a slow start. Audio wasn't overly fancied in the betting, which may suggest he was in need of the run. Also, he was racing wide for the whole trip which couldn't have helped his cause. Audio should go well in this restricted race type although it is difficult to assess that first start. 

2:45 Yarmouth - 

A couple of significantly-entered juveniles here. Mark Johnston's Don't Joke is expected to improve for his first start. He was fancied to go well on debut at Bath but could never get to grips with the pace of Zulu Zander, who was carrying a penalty, for an easy win at Leicester the time before. It was a fair debut if not a little bit tricky to assess. I imagine the experience will be a plus and this better ground may be more to his liking. 

The other entered juveniles is Robert Cowell's Taste The Nectar. The stable had a winner on Monday when Strive For Glory won at Newcastle. This American-bred daughter of More Than Ready cost $65,000 when purchased at the Keeneland yearling sales. It is positive that this filly holds an entry of some note. However, the stable have a poor strike rate with their two-year-old debutantes which doesn't bolster confidence. I would have to take a watching brief of this filly but hope she goes well. 

Jeremy Noseda's Fleeting Princess doesn't have any entries at this time but could prove the biggest danger. If priced 11/4 and less SP could take some beating.  

Thursday's 2YO Update (4th October)

A slightly quieter day - but interesting.

4:00 Lingfield - 

7f (7f1y) Injured Jockeys Fund EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo)

Runners: 12

Going: Standard

Analysis:

For starters, we note that the favourite for this race is one of our 10 Dark Horses. Silent Hunter is trained by Saeed bin Suroor. This bay colt is a son of Dutch Art out of a debut-winning mare who achieved four wins from fourteen starts. She was trained by Dermot Weld and won twice at Group 3 class. She was priced 9/2 for the Irish 1000 Guineas but finished 7th. A highest of official rating of 109 detailed a talented horse. Silent Hunter has been entered for a couple of significant races this year. Interesting. 

Other noted horses include Voltaic who finished third in the Convivial Maiden Stakes. Running off the pace it is possible this son of Power was flattered. He wasn't overly fancied next start at Sandown when stepping up to one mile. That was a disappointing display. Perhaps, dropping back to 7f will see a little more vim.    

Voltiac 6/1 3rd
Silent Hunter 5/4 4th 

Conclusion: Doesn't look the strongest of fields and if Silent Hunter has a touch of class, connections will be hopeful. 

6:15 Chelmsford - 

7f totepool Cashback Club At totesport.com Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo)

Runners: 14

Going: Standard

Analysis: 

A big field but interesting.

Jeremy Noseda hasn't had a vintage year by any stretch of the imagination. Just four horses received significant entries this year. None of any particular note. Quasar has been noted. I expected this American-bred son of Orb to show up well on debut at Yarmouth. This $250,000 breeze-up purchase ran a fair race in fifth place beaten four lengths. This bay filly is in the ownership of Marc Keller, who is a significant patron to this stable. I was left with the impression that Quasar was a touch unlucky and would benefit from this experience, especially this step up to 7f. If touching each-way prices would be a decent bet. 

Note: Quasar ran too bad to be true. Must have disappointed. 

We Like Her A Lot is the only other entry of note. Richard Hannon's filly wasn't fancied in the betting on debut and didn't show a great deal in sixth place. May improve for the experience and this step up in trip but needs to find much more today. 

Quasar 4/1 8th 
We Like Her A Lot 14/1 4th 

6:45 Chelmsford - 

1m2f Weatherbys Global Stallions App Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo)

Runners: 5

Going: Standard

Analysis: 

Michael Bell's Allmankind has run consistently in three starts to date. Has achieved an official rating of 87. Doesn't look to be one of the stable's better juveniles. A prohibitive price. 

Le Don De Vie has recieved a similar Class 2 entry.  

Mark Johnston has a vast string of two-year-olds and Caplin looks to be a disappointment although something of a mystery why connections entered this son of Cape Cross in the Convivial Maiden Stakes. Perhaps the owner wanted a couple of badges! Given another hard task when racing at Goodwood at Class 2. This looks an easier race but nothing shown in two starts to date to enthral. 

Natty Night is another to have received a Class 2 entry. Willaim Muir hasn't had many two-year-old runners this year but it is interesting this son of Nathaniel was given such an entry because he is the only horse for the stable this season. Showed little to nothing that day but horses can disappoint on debut. Priced 80/1 today. A tall order but a significant step up in distance may see more. It isn't impossible this horse may run better than its odds. 

Allmankind 4/9 1st
Caplin 12/1 2nd 
Le Don De Vie 11/4 3rd 
Natty Night 20/1 4th 

Sunday's 2YO Update

Another day of great information detailed on Saturday. 

A few races to review:

2:00 Goodwood - 

Richard Hannon has a vast string of two-year-olds. I get the feeling Al Wafi has been a touch disappointing. This son of Helmet was backed on debut but never figured at Lingfield. Clearly, the trip was too short. This bay colt showed improvement next time out when stepping up to 7f. Connections gave this juvenile an entry for the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) but that looks a misjudgment. However, the stable is trying to find the key to improvement and this distance over one mile may bring further hope. Not without a hope. 

3:25 Yarmouth - 

Racing on the Norfolk coast. Brian Meehan hasn't really hit the high notes this season with his two-year-olds. That factor shows in the limited number which has been given significant entries. No Way Hose is just one of five horses worthy of note in the stable. He managed to win the third start after two creditable finishes at headquarters. His victory over Shorter Skirt was a fair effort. A win penalty will make life harder, especially if one of the newcomers has a level of ability. 

The first of the debutantes worthy of note is William Haggas' Mubtasimah. This bay daughter of Dark Angel cost 160,000 euros at the yearling sales (65,000 Guinea foal). Now in the ownership of Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum. Interesting to note this is the only filly Haggas has entered for the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1). He does well at Yarmouth and looks well found in the betting. Debutantes are difficult to assess and trainers rarely want to give them a hard race. Definitely one of the major hopes. 

Jeremy Noseda isn't having a vintage year with his two-year-olds. That point alone brings a few question marks and may limit the ability of Quasar. However, even a relatively poor string can unveil a talent and reason why this American-bred son of Orb is worthy of some interest. The owner, Marc Keller, is no stranger to very talented horses which adds to significance. This breeze-up purchase cost $250,000 (actually bought by the owner). A Rockfell Stakes (Group 2) entry gives further hope. The stable can ready a juvenile to win on its racecourse bow. The betting is the best sign here. Very few of the stable's debutantes win when priced over 8/1. 

Conclusion: An intriguing race. No Way Hose sets a decent standard - fit and ready to roll. The weight penalty is the issue. It seems hard work for winners to defy these penalties. Whether a winner or not depends on the quality of the debutantes. I'm confident Mubtasimah has the ability to win this season. If touching each-way odds could be a decent bet. It's difficult to know what to think about Quasar. The lack of quality two-year-olds in the stable may indicate a lesser juvenile. However, he was a relatively costly buy, well owned and a good jockey booking. If priced 8/1 & less, I would give this horse the benefit of the doubt. 

Saturday's 2YO Racing Tips

I hope you have been following the two mailings we sent out and these recent updates. There is one thing Group Horse does - it delivers. If you don't agree, then take a look at the horses we have given and continue to do so over the months. 

Just a few noted successes on Friday: 

• 2:05 Newmarket - Layaleena, trained by Sir Michael Stoute 
• 3:00 York - Emaraaty Ana wins the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) 
• 3:15 Newmarket - Sangarius, a hot favourite for Sir Michael Stoute wins on debut and going places 
• 4:15 York - Commanding Officer, detailed on our 10 Dark Horse Mailing, wins the Convivial Maiden 
• 6:55 Salisbury - Kuwait Currency wins at Listed class 

I don't know about you, but I've not seen anyone else detailing such class horse from a limited selection!    

Let's take a look at the better two-year-olds running today:

1:40 Newmarket - 

We've seen some real talents racing over the last few days and it will be interesting to see how Saeed bin Suroor's Royal Marine goes. This homebred son of Raven's Pass who is out of a once-raced mare. This bay colt looks to be one of the stable's better juveniles. As I always mention, debutantes can be a law unto themselves. However, I do think it is a positive this April foal races at Newmarket. 

Simon Crisford is a very talented trainer, especially at priming debutantes. You may have noticed one of our 10 Dark Horses ran on Friday, Imperial Charm. Just denied in third place beaten by two other juveniles we noted as class acts [Layaleena & Ice Gala, for good measure we gave the fourth, too, Dandhu]. Crisford could well have a decent prospect going here in the shape of Jash. This bay son of Kodiac cost 185,000 guineas at the yearling sales. I'd be pretty confident this two-year-old has some ability. The stable is very good with debutantes which give greater hope. 

5:15 Windsor - 

Jeremy Noseda hasn't had too many talented juveniles this season. However, Lady Cosette is going in the right direction. To be fair, this bay filly is one of the best two-year-olds in the stable (not the best year). She ran well on debut when needing the run. A gallant second at Goodwood over 7f. Dropping back in distance shouldn't be a problem and a horse I suspect will take some beating. 

As usual, there are no easy races. Andrew Balding has been in exceptional form and for that reason, Bye Bye Hong Kong catches the eye. This American-bred son of Street Sense was a beaten favourite on debut when third at Newmarket on soft going. A horse worthy of note in the silks of King Power Racing Co Ltd. If touching each-way prices looks a very good bet. 

Finoah has been knocking on the door. This son of Kodiac, trained by Tom Dascombe, has been a model of consistency and achieved an official rating of 85. Unlucky not to have won with five placed efforts. Has claims but may be susceptible to one or two lightly raced horses and have to be careful that after so many hard races may regress at some point. A horse with a chance if running his race.

Just to make it a little tougher we have Typhoon Ten, who won on debut and has to shoulder a winner's penalty. No easy task against the potentially useful opposition. He struggled last time out when dropping in distance and it may well have been the penalty which saw him lose. A well-entered horse who may not have the class for pattern races so keeping to this level for now. 

Conclusion: A tough race in ways. I would favour Lady Cosette and Bye Bye Hong Kong. The latter may be a decent each-way bet if prices allow. 

6:00 Redcar - 

Concello is noted as one of Archie Watson's better two-year-olds, from a decent string. The winning penalty is never the best sign but a capable juvenile.        

Gronkowski out of Kentucky Derby

This time of year we are all about two-year-olds but this time last year we pinpointed a top-class hope for Jeremy Noseda in the shape of Gronkowski owned by Phoenix Thoroughbreds Ltd. This exciting colt had progresses to be a major UK player for this year's Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on 5th May. 

Sadly, a setback has ruled him out of this legendary race. He was booked to fly out to the States this weekend but had a high temperature at routine inspection. 

The owners tweeted: "We very much regret that #Gronkowski will miss the @KentuckyDerby after spiking a fever over the weekend and being treated with antibiotics. He can't make the long journey to Louisville but is doing well."

Gronkowski, named after National Football League legend Rob Gronkowski, was unbeaten in four races on the all-weather. He was given the opportunity to go to the Kentucky Derby after winning the Listed Burradon Stakes at Newcastle. 

32RED Sprint Cup Stakes (Listed Race) - Lansky

So racing goes ahead at Lingfield. 

I didn't think there would be much racing at all and then all three all-weather cards survive inspection. 

3:30 Lingfield - 

The Spring Cup Stakes is a Listed race over 7 1y on Standard going. 

I can't say I've looked at this race too much. The first thing that popped into my head was Lansky, trained by Jeremy Noseda and ridden by Ryan Moore. This Irish-bred son of Dark Angel cost 300,000G at the 2yo breeze-up sales in the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbred Limited. This bay colt has won twice in four starts. Beaten a couple of times when racing at Group class (Acomb Stakes Group 3 at York & Mill Reef Stakes Group 2). Two noble efforts placed third and fourth respectively beaten less than five lengths. He has total earning slightly shy of £20,000. 

Interesting to consider how many of these six entrants where identified by Group Horse at two, the majority before they had made their debut. 

Five of the six were identified early in their 2yo career. 

Alibasher 

Bengali Boys 

Lake Volta 

Lansky

Rufus King  

Interesting to see who wins £25,520    

Group Horse: From 2yo to Kentucky Derby Winner 2018

Why is Group Horse so powerful? 

Basically, it details the best two-year-old horses in training. Whether unraced, lightly raced or even if we are looking into the future, perhaps a horse running for the first time at three. That is the strength of this remarkable information. 

Do you want to know the best horses before they are known to the racing public?

With a mailing list of over 1,000 subscribers they are in agreement. 

For example, let's take the 7:30 Kempton - ''Road To The Kentucky Derby '' Conditions Stakes (Plus 10) (1st March) over 1 mile on standard to slow going. 

This race is worth £43,575.00 to the winner and stepping stone to the Kentucky Derby. Here is a link to the race if you want to see the horses, trainers, betting odds. I know what you are saying 'Well, we can all see it is a good race with talented horses''. 

Correct.

The example is about looking back to see which horses Group Horse identified from this race at two-year-olds. 

From the eight three-year-olds how many did we identify at two? Those unraced or lightly raced. Remember 80% of horses don't win a race and most of them are no great shakes. 

So identifying horses to achieve this level is exceptional. 

So which of the horse did we identify?

Fortune's Pearl (Andrew Balding) - 2 wins, raced at Group class and has an official rating of 100. 

Gronkowski (Jeremy Noseda) -  Raced 4 times achieving 2 wins and on official rating of 95. 

Jellmood (Marco Botti) - A very consistent horse with one win from seven start but placed on five other occasions. An official rating of 95.

Ventura Knight - A progressive, durable horse who has won four races from eleven starts. An official rating of 95. 

Gronkowski is tissue priced at 13/8f. 

All four horses are talents. Each of these horses was identified by Group Horse at two. 

Look where they are at three. 

Who knows where they will be at the end of the year? 

Perhaps a Kentucky Derby winner! 

Walk In The Sun trained by Jeremy Noseda

I hate to say it, but we told you so. 

However, no one likes a show off. And we are very unassuming with our big heads, trying to walk through small doors. So what are we talking about? 

Walk In The Sun, trained by Jeremy Noseda. 

As you may realise, Group Horse is all about detailing the best two-year-old horses in training. Often, as is the case for this colt, he didn't run until three. 

Sometimes you have to wait patiently for something good to happen. 

This American-bred bay colt is a son of Street Sense (pictured) in the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbreds Limited. These owners have very deep pockets and not afraid to put the money down. Purchased by Kerri Radcliffe Bloodstock (vendor Mocklershill) for 1,400,000 euros at the 2yo breeze-up sales. Basically, a suitcase full of money. 

Interesting to note the mare won on debut in France, tasted victory at Listed class and placed at Group 3. She ran at Group 1 level for Andre Fabre. The sire didn't win on debut but achieved 6 wins from 13 start in the States taking 3 Grade 1 races and total prize earnings over £2m. 

Jeremy Noseda always rated Walk In The Sun. The Newmarket handler was in no rush to get this April foal out at two although three significant entries suggest they had plans to do something in his formative season. 

In fact, we had to wait until January 26th to see what all the fuss was about. Ryan Moore was booked to ride and starting at 5/4f told the dogs had been barking. It turned out to be a cracking race, battling to beat First Contact who was burdened with a win penalty. Godolphin's charge made a sturdy opponent. Walk In The Sun ran on well and won a shade cosily.   

Noseda has Walk In The Sun entered for the 2000 Guineas which suggests he will be heading towards the Classic race trials if winning this sort of race well. 

The 2:30 Lingfield  (Tuesday) doesn't look the hardest of fights. With just three horses in opposition punters will need to be a wedge to fill a purse. This should be a walk in the (park) at 1/4f.

Interesting how easy he goes with the win penalty to give some measure. Connections will be expecting a tidy success with lofty plans in the pipeline.

A Profile of Ghost Serge Trained by Archie Watson

Trainers come and go. Rookie trainers can find they have a limited shelf life if backed by others money. It must be a hard-fought existence when your success or failings rest on each horse achieving something to keep the devil off your back. 

One thing every newbie trainer needs is a touch of luck or a bloody good horse to prove they know their job. 

Archie Watson must have thanked his lucky stars that he had not one, two, three but more talents at Saxon Gate, Upper Lambourn, West Berkshire. 

Looking at today's racing I see Ghost Serge takes part at Lingfield (1:30). 

This grey son of Zebedee was always held in some regard by Watson, receiving a number of significant entries through his two-year-old season. An impressive 7-length winner on debut then following up under a penalty at Carlisle. Ghost Serge did little wrong when heading to France when beaten in the final strides at Listed class. In some respects, he disappointed thereafter. The latest performance when fourth at Kempton saw him struggle to give weight to a couple of horses with huge reputations noted on Group Horse (Daily) with Walk In The Sun (Jeremy Noseda) and First Contact (Charlie Appleby) cruising clear of the field by 8-lengths. 

Ghost Serge has been somewhat hindered by the win penalty and finds himself racing for a prize of £3,752.02. 

Watson entered a number of juveniles last season and they have continued to show ample ability. 

Corinthia Knight  - OR 105
So Hi Society  - OR 98
Yabass - OR 84

Other entrants:

Shimmy Shoes
We Are The World 
Amazing Alice
Herecomesthesun