Wednesday 10 October 2018

Wednesday's 2YO Update (10th October)

1:30 Nottingham - 

Aluqair has been noted by Simon Crisford. A recent Class 2 entry brings some confidence. This son of Kodiac cost £48,00 at the breeze-up sales. 

Aluqair 6/1 4th 

Note: A nice introduction.

2:30 Nottingham - 

Michael Bell has seen a few decent two-year-olds come to hand this season. Eagles By Day is owned by Clipper Logistics and cost 125,000 guineas at the yearling sales. Probably a fair sign to have Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Bell isn't the easiest trainer to assess with debutantes. The best can win at the first time of asking. However, they can vary from one extreme to the other. Babbo's Bell is an example. Looked to be coming for money but drifted markedly in the betting and was in need of the run. With any juvenile making its racecourse bow at this time of the year, they may be in need of experience or the run. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less SP would bring more hope. 

Eagles By Day 7/1 2nd 

Note: Note: A big drifter on the exchanges but a bit of money late. Ran a very nice race in second. A fair juvenile who has very good claims next start.

The only other entrant is Marcus Tregoning's Strindberg. He doesn't give many entries and this son of Sea The Moon was a huge price on debut when showing a bit of pace because dropping out of contention. Beaten a long way. Stepping up in distance but needs to transform from a caterpillar into a butterfly. The only interesting aspect is a price of 50/1. On balance, you'd have to take a watching brief and a result looks very unlikely.

Strindberg 50/1 4th

Note: Strindberg, once again, showed the worth of this information. Looked to have a lot to proved but well backed, returning 20/1. Was 200/1+ on the exchanges early. Ran well to finish 4th. 

5:40 Kempton - 

A good few horses of note here. 

Buffalo River has shown a level of ability on all three starts. John Gosden is an excellent trainer and a very good judge. Punters who followed this son of Noble Mission on his last two starts have probably pulled their hair out by now. A crushing loss at 2/9f putting the cherry on the layers' cake. In truth, this horse has a fair level of ability. Whether you wish to bet at fractional odds-on after three losses is a matter of opinion. 

Note: Drifted markedly in betting when very keen to post but ran out a tidy winner.

Richard Hannon is a fair judge with a vast string of two-year-olds. Ajrar is well entered. She won easily on debut by three lengths. Runner-up at Listed class. Two credible runs at Group 3. Then a disappointment when attempting Group 2. This daughter of Nayef needs to leave that last race behind her. There is always a fear she has regressed. In addition, she has to defy a win penalty which isn't easy against strong opposition. Ajrar has achieved an official rating of 94. Few horses get to that level. Interesting. I would have to take a watching brief. 

Buffalo River 11/10f 1st
Ajrar 6/1 2nd 

Note: Far from disgraced finishing second under a win penalty and against a talented colt. Drifted to over 16/1+ on exchanges before some late money.

6:10 Kempton - 

Sir Michael Stoute has 10 significantly entered two-year-olds this season. Sovereign Grant has run twice and fancied to go well on both starts. She isn't the best looking filly. My brother noted this when at Great Yarmouth, where she disappointed at 4/6f. She wasn't beaten far into third. Has a chance but may have some limitation. 

Sovereign Grant 15/8f 1st

Note: Won easily.