5:00 Kempton Racing Tips (11th March)

My brother sent a little message about this 3yo Novice Stakes. I thought I would write about it from a two-year-old perspective, just to show how even the insight from Group Horse [Daily] can help (hopefully) detail the leading lights of a race. 

Nine three-year-olds take part over this turning five furlongs on the standard to slow going.

This race looks out of two major hopes. There may well be more, but we will give reasons along the way.

Paul Cole's Physics is definitely the horse to beat. This bay gelding is a son of Acclamation and 180,000 yearling purchase. He was a beaten favourite on debut over this course, dropping back a furlong to this minimum trip. I like Cole at Kempton and Mrs Fitri Hay is a significant owner. In truth, the debut effort didn't inspire when a beaten favourite, finishing fifth. It looked for the world as if he fluffed his lines, went too fast and tired rapidly. Any horse can disappoint on debut. I would expect a much more polished display here from stall six. At 13/8, I'm not sure this offers much value. If drifting could make a fair bet, especially if going for an each way double. 

Should be the horse to beat. 

Orange Blossom has been a very frustrating horse to follow. I can imagine The Cool Silk Partnership must have thought summer turned to winter in a day because I have little doubt this daughter of Showcasing has been held in high regard. As with many two-year-olds, it doesn't take much to sour and then it is a matter of building back to winning ways. This January foal has raced at Group class but looked as though she would have struggled to win at plating class on a bad day. However, she showed ability last time out over six furlongs. It is often the case potentially talented two-year-olds lose their way and then comes good at three. I have seen it happen many times. A wide draw isn't ideal. Interesting to see she is dropping back to the minimum trip. After a few frustrating runs, this is a test for this attractive filly. 

Brigadier was fancied to go well on debut at this course, giving the impression this drop back to five furlongs would be right up his alley. This son of Sepoy finished behind Orange Blossom. Punters may be fancying their chances of reversing the form over this sprint. One point of slight concern is that the statistics for this horse are poor. Any horse can defy the stats and that may well be true for Brigadier but it is a point to consider. 

Mick Channon's Rakastava was odds on for his debut. There is no doubt this son of Clodovil has some limitation drifting markedly in the betting when outclassed by With Caution, trained by James Tate. Well drawn in stall two but may need to show improved form after a couple of fair but somewhat disappointing efforts. 

Conclusion: An intriguing race. A few of these horses need to put disappointments behind them, which isn't the best starting point to find winners (unless you have a good reason). Physics has a lot of positives today although needs to have learned from his debut. Has sound claims, especially if drifting in the betting. Orange Blossom is the sort of horse to turn your hair grey overnight. These frustrating types often come good at some point but you may need to have skin as thick as a rhino to take another loss. If drifting to big prices on the exchanges may be worth a small win bet. The type who will win or simply disappoint. Brigadier looks to hold sound claims but the stats just put me off. Rakastava looks disappointing and not sure if this drop in distance will help. 

In truth, I would side with Physics if you can get half decent odds. Orange Blossom may finally come good but an enigma.  

Wednesday's 2YO Updates (12th December)

A few quiet days. Let's take a look at the significant entrants racing today. 

4:45 Kempton - 

Interesting to see Ed Vaughan fields a potentially smart two-year-old racing over this trip of one mile. Al Batter is a bay colt and son of Dubawi out of a four-times winning mare, Giofra, whose last nine starts were at Group/Grade 1. Her greatest success is the Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) at Newmarket. A very talented horse. Al Batter cost a fortune at the yearling sales at 1,550,000 euros. He races in the familiar silks of Phoenix Thoroughbreds Limited. Readers may remember the stable done well this season with Dubai Dominion and Magic J. 

This is just one of three horses to receive significant entries for Ed Vaughan. The other horse, which is yet to race, is called Ginger Wolverine.  A horse worth noting as we are confident it will be a winner. 

Al Batter is pretty well drawn in stall three. Priced 8/1 with bookmakers. It is always difficult to assess the chances of debutantes because they are often a law unto themselves. However, it is often the case they have ability if priced 10/1 & less SP. Especially so when priced 13/2 & less SP.  

Worth of respect. 

Al Batter 10/1 6th 

Note: Looked inexperience but ran a race full of promise. Unfortunately not placed which is a shame. On reviewing the race, Al Batter wasn't helped at all by nearly running into the back of the favourite who seemed to back peddle for some reason. Vaughan's horse pulled off heels and lost a number of lengths and most importantly its position. Annoying turn of events considering it ran on well in the closing furlong. 
   

Wednesday's 2YO Update (10th October)

1:30 Nottingham - 

Aluqair has been noted by Simon Crisford. A recent Class 2 entry brings some confidence. This son of Kodiac cost £48,00 at the breeze-up sales. 

Aluqair 6/1 4th 

Note: A nice introduction.

2:30 Nottingham - 

Michael Bell has seen a few decent two-year-olds come to hand this season. Eagles By Day is owned by Clipper Logistics and cost 125,000 guineas at the yearling sales. Probably a fair sign to have Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Bell isn't the easiest trainer to assess with debutantes. The best can win at the first time of asking. However, they can vary from one extreme to the other. Babbo's Bell is an example. Looked to be coming for money but drifted markedly in the betting and was in need of the run. With any juvenile making its racecourse bow at this time of the year, they may be in need of experience or the run. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less SP would bring more hope. 

Eagles By Day 7/1 2nd 

Note: Note: A big drifter on the exchanges but a bit of money late. Ran a very nice race in second. A fair juvenile who has very good claims next start.

The only other entrant is Marcus Tregoning's Strindberg. He doesn't give many entries and this son of Sea The Moon was a huge price on debut when showing a bit of pace because dropping out of contention. Beaten a long way. Stepping up in distance but needs to transform from a caterpillar into a butterfly. The only interesting aspect is a price of 50/1. On balance, you'd have to take a watching brief and a result looks very unlikely.

Strindberg 50/1 4th

Note: Strindberg, once again, showed the worth of this information. Looked to have a lot to proved but well backed, returning 20/1. Was 200/1+ on the exchanges early. Ran well to finish 4th. 

5:40 Kempton - 

A good few horses of note here. 

Buffalo River has shown a level of ability on all three starts. John Gosden is an excellent trainer and a very good judge. Punters who followed this son of Noble Mission on his last two starts have probably pulled their hair out by now. A crushing loss at 2/9f putting the cherry on the layers' cake. In truth, this horse has a fair level of ability. Whether you wish to bet at fractional odds-on after three losses is a matter of opinion. 

Note: Drifted markedly in betting when very keen to post but ran out a tidy winner.

Richard Hannon is a fair judge with a vast string of two-year-olds. Ajrar is well entered. She won easily on debut by three lengths. Runner-up at Listed class. Two credible runs at Group 3. Then a disappointment when attempting Group 2. This daughter of Nayef needs to leave that last race behind her. There is always a fear she has regressed. In addition, she has to defy a win penalty which isn't easy against strong opposition. Ajrar has achieved an official rating of 94. Few horses get to that level. Interesting. I would have to take a watching brief. 

Buffalo River 11/10f 1st
Ajrar 6/1 2nd 

Note: Far from disgraced finishing second under a win penalty and against a talented colt. Drifted to over 16/1+ on exchanges before some late money.

6:10 Kempton - 

Sir Michael Stoute has 10 significantly entered two-year-olds this season. Sovereign Grant has run twice and fancied to go well on both starts. She isn't the best looking filly. My brother noted this when at Great Yarmouth, where she disappointed at 4/6f. She wasn't beaten far into third. Has a chance but may have some limitation. 

Sovereign Grant 15/8f 1st

Note: Won easily. 

Wednesday's 2YO Update

Very busy, so not a great deal of time to give a conclusive report. However, all the information is here for those who wish to find it. 

6:00 Kempton - 

7f starsports.bet/British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 5) (2yo)

Eleven two-year-olds take part on the standard to slow going. 

Let's take a quick look at those with significant entries:

*Farnham is interesting. This bay daughter of Farhh is trained by Roger Varian and cost 110,000 guineas at the yearling sales. The mare was unraced but Farnham is related to three winning sprinters. Clipper Logistics is no stranger to good horses and it is interesting to note that this May foal held an entry for the Lowther Stakes (Group 2). It may be a negative that she has been withdrawn from that contest although it isn't too far from taking place so, perhaps, connections feel it will come too quickly.  

2:10 Salisbury - 

Tin Hat 
Crantock Bay 
Dirty Rascal

* NR


  

Wednesday's 2yo Horse Racing Update

Just the three races today:

2:00 Hamilton - 

Axel Jacklin has received a couple of entries from trainer Mark Johnston. He showed up well second time out at Newmarket when stepping up in distance. Finished fourth next start at Haydock, which looked a disappointing effort. However, the first two are probably fair types so may have run his race. 

Tony Coyle's Broken Spear has been a consistent horse since an admirable second in the Brocklesby Stakes. He has been beaten by a number of talented juveniles and seems as good at 6f as the minimum trip. There's always a slight concern that a horse may regress after a few hard race (which they often turn out to be when placed) so worth being cautious at short odds although respected. 

2:20 Wolverhampton - 

Barend Boy looked the type of horse to lose his maiden tag with haste after a fine debut effort at Leicester. He didn't do much wrong when placed at Newmarket, stepping up to 6f. This son of Oasis Dream disappointed at Nottingham. He bucked when leaving the stalls which may have been a sign the saddle pinched. He traveled ok but tired quite tamely at the furlong pole and somewhat eased. It was a poor effort which leaves question marks. The form of the race is decent with the winner, Cool Exhibit, likely to go to Royal Ascot, while the second wasn't disgraced next time out. At best, Barend Boy has claims but you need to forgive a lackluster run, which may be a sign of regression.

Saeeb bin Suroor will be hoping this season is better than last; it can't be worse. Burj is the only two-year-old from his string to receive entries to date. This bay son of Dansili ran well on debut at Newbury when placed third. He is a professional type who looks sure to run his race. A leading player. 

6:00 Kempton - 

Ralph Beckett does pretty well with his two-year-old debutantes at Kempton. Cruck Railie is a 60,000G yearling purchase. Interesting to note she was given a significant entry a few weeks ago so may be one of the stable's better fillies. A prime draw may be a blessing if well educated. Worth noting if backed. 

6:10 Wetherby - 

Missed this race at the time. Pink Flamingo had been given two or three entries and looked well fancied around even money with bookmakers. Could hold the winning Cocoabala who shouldered a penalty and showed a much better attitude today compared with last time out when getting hot and bothered.

Tuesday's Racing Update (1st May)

Five two-year-old races for Tuesday. Still a lot of testing going which has been a factor all season. 

I will detail the horses with significant entries.

2:00 Nottingham - 

Fillies' Novice stakes over 5f 8y on soft going. 

Just the one entry here being Richard Hannon's Spell. This Irish-bred daughter of Slade Power is worth noting. 

NR: Spell

2:10 Yarmouth - 

A Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 42y on good to soft going,

George Scott's Usain Boat didn't cost a fortune at the yearling sales [23,000 euros]. However, this Irish-bred of Casamento has been noted by the trainer. A good jockey booking, too. Hard Forest is one of a few juveniles given a significant entry by Mark Johnston. This daughter of Hard Spun is the only filly in the line up but a horse with plenty of pace. The drying ground may be in her favour. To be fair, she has looked a slightly short runner on both starts but her experience will most likely see her lead. If running to the line - or gaining an easy lead - should go close. From a statistical point of view Artair is interesting. Michael Bell doesn't have many early two-year-olds and this colt was fancied on debut at Windsor. He was held up but made smooth headway (touched short prices in-running) before being outpointed in the final furlong by Blown by Wind, who is a fair horse. This looks a competitive little field. Intriguing race. 

Conclusion: Hard Forest is a fair juvenile and most blast clear of the field and hope to hold on. Artair doesn't have any entries but on stats has pretty strong claims. Usain Boat could be the surprise package.  

1st Artair 11/10f
2nd Usain Boat 9/2 

2:20 Brighton - 

A Novice Auction Stakes over 5f 60y on good to soft going. 

No horses with significant entries. 

5:45 Kempton - 

A Novice Auction Stakes over 5f on standard going. 

Ten two-year-olds take part. It's The Only Way ran out a tidy winner on debut and a good-looking colt. Has to give away weight with a penalty. Wolf Hunter has been given a significant entry by Richard Hughes but showed nothing on debut. Best watched. Sylvester Kirk's Wolstonbury was noted by the trainer and run in a hot Newbury maiden.This son of Kodiac showed an element of ability before the three leaders left the rest standing. Probably capable of better but need to show more. Quite interested in Michael Bell's Brelade's Bay. This daughter of Footstepsinthesand cost £20,000 at the breeze-up sales. Well drawn in stall two. Interesting. Tom Clover had a winning debutante at Windsor and a capable trainer. Rajy is a bay daughter of Society Rock and £19,00 yearling purchase. The fact she was given a significant entry speaks well. A horse that may slip under the radar. A wide draw isn't ideal. 

Conclusion: It's The Only Way should go well even with a penalty. Brelade's Bay is definitely of interest and I can see her running well. Rajy is another worth noting for the future. A wide draw makes life difficult. 

1st It's The Only Way 11/10f
2nd Um Shama 16/1 
3rd Dolly Dupree 25/1

6:15 Kempton - 

An EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 5fon standard going.

A couple of significant entrants here with the once-raced Chynna and Ed Walker's On the Stage. The former ran well on debut at Newmarket. The form of that race has been franked although not the easiest to make sense. On The Stage is a home bred daughter of Swiss Spirit in the familiar silks of Lordship Stud. 

1st On The Stage 3/1 
2nd Thegreytrain 80/1
3rd Chynna 9/4

5:45 Kempton Racing Tips (18th April)

A Novice Auction Stakes over 5f on Standard going. 

Quite a restricted race type which favours form horses. Jungle Inthebungle was noted by us on debut and hung on by a short head from Lady Prancealot who won in ready fashion on her second start. Kingi Compton ran well enough in fourth place. Mick Channon's winner has to carry a win penalty but that is negated in some respects by the apprentice jockey. 

Geography Teacher ran in the Brocklesby Stakes, which gives some interest. This daughter of Bungle Inthejungle was well backed that day but showed little. The only hope would be that she struggled on the soft ground, injured or needed the run. Roger Fell isn't the first trainer to come to mind with two-year-olds but today should show what she is all about. Interesting if backed, as it would give a little more confidence. I would take a watching brief. 

Bill Turner sent Arthur's Spirit to contest the Brocklesby, as race he often sends his best two-year-old. He was kind of fancied in the betting but faded and beaten a long way by the time he got to the finishing line. However, there was money for his second start at Southwell and proved that first run was all wrong. He touched big odds on at Southwell before being reeled in by Richard Faheys Mr Buttons. This colt has fair pace - if last time is to be believed - and from a low draw is likely to lead. The apprentice remains, taking off a handy 7lb. Slightly difficult to assess the merit of the form on that last start as two horses left the others standing and they didn't look too good. Should give a bold show. 

Dancing On A Dream is trained by Mark Johnston but didn't cost a great deal. Always a trainer to be respected. This horse has no significant entries at this time and simply mentioned for reference. 

Conclusion: Disappointing there are just two places for each way betting as Arthur's Spirit may have claims. I can imagine connections trying to lead and if betting it may be wise to lay in running at short odds just in case he is collared late on. Jungle Inthebungle ran well to win on debut and looks professional. I would take a watching brief. 

1:30 Kempton Racing Tips (7th April)

An EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f on Standard going.

Ten two-year-olds take apart. Eight colts, two fillies, four horses with one race to their name.

The tissue prices indicate bookmakers are being careful, which isn't a bad idea at this time of year. 

The 3 better form horses have valuable experience.  

Lihou and Gingersdunthelot made their racecourse bow in the Brocklesby Stakes. The former, trained by David Evans, is a compact son of Mayson who wasn't best away from the stalls but progressed nicely losing by two lengths. This was a professional performance. He looks the type to enjoy this faster surface and most likely use that experience to sit handy. The winner of the Brocklesby, Izzer, has won again under a penalty which suggests the form is fair although, still, difficult to assess at this time. 

Evans is represented by Disruptor who is well drawn in stall 2. This French-bred son of Siyouni cost £52,000 at the yearling sales. Interesting to note this youngster was entered for a Class 2 Stakes. Lihou looks the first string but it wouldn't be a surprise to see this January foal show ability. If significantly backed, it would be a positive.   

Gingersdunthelot was backed from big prices and showed pace until tiring into ninth place. 

The ground at Doncaster was testing which makes assessment very difficult because if better ground is needed there could be improvement. 

The other form horse, John Betjeman, hails from Bill Turner's stable who has shown his worth with this juvenile and Arthur's Spirit who ran terrible in the Brocklesby but ran well when returning to Southwell a different horse. John Betjeman was beaten one length by Izzer, when contesting a Class 2 Stakes race at Bath. The ground that day was horrendous and the 5f race was over 10 seconds slow. Turner's charge was priced 25/1 but belied those odds. This son of Poet's Voice led and lost a little bit of ground when wandering on the dog leg bend before rallying in the closing stages. By all accounts, it was a decent debut. On form lines with Lihou, there wouldn't be a great deal between them. One thing you can say, is that John Betjeman will run to the line because that debut was akin to 6f. 

Richard Hannon's Dixieland was entered to run at Bath but withdrawn due to the going and makes a return here. It is a positive this son of Red Jazz was entered for that Class 2 race worth £12,000+ to the winner. A fair draw in stall 5. He was fancied in the betting at Bath and gives the impression connections fancy this horse to run a race.

Mick Channon has done well with his two-year-olds this season with Izzer scoring twice and Jungle Inthebungle winning on debut too. The stable have detailed they have a decent string which is proven to a point by these early victors. Kinks is a son of Sixties Icon and relatively inexpensive yearling purchase at 14,000 euros. This March foal is not best drawn in stall eight. The betting is the best guide. It is a positive to note he was entered for a Class 2 Stakes race. With decent form horses in the stable, the betting will tell the story. If strongly fancied I would expect a show. Conversely, weak in the market would be a negative. Remember, very few of the debutantes win when priced over 8/1.   

Robert Cowell's Sir Ox is an American-bred son of Oxbow. Racing in the familiar silks of Khalifa Dasmal this juvenile was purchase by the trainer at the Keeneland sales for $215,000. The mare raced once at Grade 1 class when second at Hollywood Park. The betting suggests this horse isn't overly fancied - perhaps needing a greater test of stamina. The stable had a decent performance by Vikivaki when contesting a Newcastle Stakes race. A wide draw isn't ideal. If backed it would give more confidence. 

Archie Watson proved a star trainer last year with the likes of Corinthia Knight, Yabass, Ghost Serge and So Hi Society. Luchador is an Irish-bred daughter of Holy Roman Emperor. This home bred races in the familiar silks of Al Asayl Bloodstock Ltd. A prime draw in stall 1 can be a blessing or a curse. The betting is the best guide.   

Arbuckle & Vena D'Amour are best watched.   

Conclusion: An intriguing race with a mix of form horses and few with fair entries which suggest they have some merit. Lihou and John Betjeman have shown ability and professionalism. Experience goes a long way at this time of year, especially on a turning course which can prove an obstacle. I can see both horses running well. Dixieland was fancied in the betting when withdrawn at Bath, so it is fair to expect a horse with some ability. The betting should tell the story for Kinks and Luchador. The former hails from Mick Channon's stable who has won three of the early two-year-old races. He has a good measure of these and Kinks was entered to run at Class 2 which suggests they feel this colt has ability. Disruptor is another horses to hold a similar entry. David Evans can be a tricky customer and the stable are not against pulling off a surprise. If backed, it would be worthy of note. Sir Ox looks weak in the early tissue prices but a well-bred two-year-old and a costly purchase at $215,000. A wide draw is far from ideal. However, money for this colt would bring more confidence. The betting is a good guide to the debutantes who will need to be pretty smart to beat the form horses who have experience and decent draws. A turning course favours form horses. I would take a watching brief.