Showing posts with label Disruptor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Disruptor. Show all posts

Monday, 20 August 2018

Monday's 2YO Update


Very little time, so a quick look at today's significant entries. 

2:20 Leicester - 

A few horses have received significant entries for this 0 - 80 rated nursery. Quiet Waters, Sabai Sabai, Jensue & Happy Odyssey.   

6:00 Windsor - 

An EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 race) over 6f (12y) on good to firm going. 

William Haggas has an interesting two-year-old making his debut. Luxor is a son of Oasis Dream and £190,000 yearling purchase. The mare raced four times and won on her second start. Luxor races in the familiar silks of Highclere Thoroughbred Racing. This colt holds a Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) entry. Just one of two horses selected by the trainer. Haggas can win with two-year-old debutantes although you are always fearful inexperience will be costly. An intriguing colt that's worthy of closer inspection. 

4:20 Leicester - 

A 7f 0 -70 rated nursery. 

Five Helmets, Chonburi. Disruptor is interesting and could well hit the frame.  

Thursday, 5 July 2018

Thursday's 2YO Racing Tips


3:00 Haydock - 

The first two-year-old nursery of the season. I can't say this is my favourite race type, although if I do have a fancy they usually go well. I will detail the significantly entered. Not sure if I will bother to do this for all the nursery races because those higher rated are likely to feature many. It proves the principle of Group Horse Daily that, amazingly, we detail the best horses in training. No surprise to those who follow and appreciate.

Significantly entered horses in this race.

High Horse 
Finoah
Dancing Speed 
Five Helmets
Ventura Bay 
Leoube

Conclusion:  Too many featured here to take the race seriously. I usually look for horses who haven't shown their hand in this race type in the hope they are on a good handicap mark. A couple who may have some hope, one not entered, are Leoube and Triple One, who is progressing well and must win races off 68. Time will tell. 

3:30 Haydock - 

Critical Data won well last time in a restricted auction race. Has to shoulder a win penalty which makes life harder. Pablo Escobarr ran well on debut when a beaten favourite to a fair juvenile in Certain Lad. Mark Johnston's charge has received a National Stakes (Group 1) entry for the big Irish race. 

6:15 Newbury - 

A rare entry for Henry Candy, who isn't the type of trainer to waste his time with foolish hopes. Layla's Dream has received a Class 2 entry a while back. This daughter of Assertive is a home bred for Lady Whent. The mare was a triple winer over sprint distance but a limited horse in some respects. Interesting horse. Candy can ready a debutante and it wouldn't be a surprise to see this February foal go well. On the opposite side debutantes can make you look very foolish at times. 

6:45 Newbury -

A well entered and talented juvenile here in The Paddocks, trained by Richard Hannon. Finished last in the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot.  This son of Charm Spirit has to shoulder a win penalty. This will feel a lot easier but competitive. 

David Evans has been patient with Disruptor who was meant to make a return to racing the other day but a late non runner due to going. He didn't have much go right on first and second start. Very much in need of the experience on debut when running on and pushed wide on the bend at Lingfield when a beaten favourite. I think that race was decent and the fact he started the jolly positives. There was money for this chestnut colt the other day at Chepstow so I wouldn't be writing him off. I get the impression connection are looking for slightly better ground so could be a non runner. However, a horse who should run a race if starting. 

Hugo Palmer has been quiet this season and not hitting the high notes as yet. James Street was meant to run at Yarmouth the other week but withdrawn on a vet's certificate. There was a little bit of money for this son of Gale Force Ten. A 130,000G breeze up (2yo) purchase in the familiar ownership of M M Stables. They have stablemate Never Back Down, who is pretty smart and a note two-year-old for us last season. 

Tuesday, 3 July 2018

Tuesday's 2YO Update


Three two-year-old races to consider. 

2:15 Hamilton - 

No entries of note. 

6:45 Chepstow - 

Tisneverending is a significant entrant for Stan Moore. She has been flitting between the UK and France. Not the easiest horse to assess. 

7:15 Chepstow - 

An intriguing race. A few of these are worthy of note. Shaybani has to shoulder a win penalty but good enough to contest the Coventry Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. Wasn't disgraced in mid division. 

David Evans is a fair judge and Disruptor is better than seen on his first two starts. Needed the run on debut, when finishing with verve. A beaten favourite next start when stepping up to six furlongs after a long break. Nothing much went right that day. He wasn't helped at all by running wide and then being pushed even wider on the final bend. In truth, there was a lot to like about that performance although backers where left frustrated. The race looked decent. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the first seven horses at Lingfield go on to win. If this wasn't such a stiff contest, I would be pretty keen on this French-bred colt hitting the frame if not winning. Not without a chance at fair odds. 

I don't usually detail horses here if they haven't been given significant entries. However, there are a few horses which may be able opponents. 

Roger Teal's Spirit Of May has very good win and place claims if priced 13/2 and less. Dutch Treat has fair each-way claims if priced 9/1 & less sp.  

A tough race in ways but very interesting.  

Saturday, 7 April 2018

1:30 Kempton Racing Tips (7th April)


An EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f on Standard going.

Ten two-year-olds take apart. Eight colts, two fillies, four horses with one race to their name.

The tissue prices indicate bookmakers are being careful, which isn't a bad idea at this time of year. 

The 3 better form horses have valuable experience.  

Lihou and Gingersdunthelot made their racecourse bow in the Brocklesby Stakes. The former, trained by David Evans, is a compact son of Mayson who wasn't best away from the stalls but progressed nicely losing by two lengths. This was a professional performance. He looks the type to enjoy this faster surface and most likely use that experience to sit handy. The winner of the Brocklesby, Izzer, has won again under a penalty which suggests the form is fair although, still, difficult to assess at this time. 

Evans is represented by Disruptor who is well drawn in stall 2. This French-bred son of Siyouni cost £52,000 at the yearling sales. Interesting to note this youngster was entered for a Class 2 Stakes. Lihou looks the first string but it wouldn't be a surprise to see this January foal show ability. If significantly backed, it would be a positive.   

Gingersdunthelot was backed from big prices and showed pace until tiring into ninth place. 

The ground at Doncaster was testing which makes assessment very difficult because if better ground is needed there could be improvement. 

The other form horse, John Betjeman, hails from Bill Turner's stable who has shown his worth with this juvenile and Arthur's Spirit who ran terrible in the Brocklesby but ran well when returning to Southwell a different horse. John Betjeman was beaten one length by Izzer, when contesting a Class 2 Stakes race at Bath. The ground that day was horrendous and the 5f race was over 10 seconds slow. Turner's charge was priced 25/1 but belied those odds. This son of Poet's Voice led and lost a little bit of ground when wandering on the dog leg bend before rallying in the closing stages. By all accounts, it was a decent debut. On form lines with Lihou, there wouldn't be a great deal between them. One thing you can say, is that John Betjeman will run to the line because that debut was akin to 6f. 

Richard Hannon's Dixieland was entered to run at Bath but withdrawn due to the going and makes a return here. It is a positive this son of Red Jazz was entered for that Class 2 race worth £12,000+ to the winner. A fair draw in stall 5. He was fancied in the betting at Bath and gives the impression connections fancy this horse to run a race.

Mick Channon has done well with his two-year-olds this season with Izzer scoring twice and Jungle Inthebungle winning on debut too. The stable have detailed they have a decent string which is proven to a point by these early victors. Kinks is a son of Sixties Icon and relatively inexpensive yearling purchase at 14,000 euros. This March foal is not best drawn in stall eight. The betting is the best guide. It is a positive to note he was entered for a Class 2 Stakes race. With decent form horses in the stable, the betting will tell the story. If strongly fancied I would expect a show. Conversely, weak in the market would be a negative. Remember, very few of the debutantes win when priced over 8/1.   

Robert Cowell's Sir Ox is an American-bred son of Oxbow. Racing in the familiar silks of Khalifa Dasmal this juvenile was purchase by the trainer at the Keeneland sales for $215,000. The mare raced once at Grade 1 class when second at Hollywood Park. The betting suggests this horse isn't overly fancied - perhaps needing a greater test of stamina. The stable had a decent performance by Vikivaki when contesting a Newcastle Stakes race. A wide draw isn't ideal. If backed it would give more confidence. 

Archie Watson proved a star trainer last year with the likes of Corinthia Knight, Yabass, Ghost Serge and So Hi Society. Luchador is an Irish-bred daughter of Holy Roman Emperor. This home bred races in the familiar silks of Al Asayl Bloodstock Ltd. A prime draw in stall 1 can be a blessing or a curse. The betting is the best guide.   

Arbuckle & Vena D'Amour are best watched.   

Conclusion: An intriguing race with a mix of form horses and few with fair entries which suggest they have some merit. Lihou and John Betjeman have shown ability and professionalism. Experience goes a long way at this time of year, especially on a turning course which can prove an obstacle. I can see both horses running well. Dixieland was fancied in the betting when withdrawn at Bath, so it is fair to expect a horse with some ability. The betting should tell the story for Kinks and Luchador. The former hails from Mick Channon's stable who has won three of the early two-year-old races. He has a good measure of these and Kinks was entered to run at Class 2 which suggests they feel this colt has ability. Disruptor is another horses to hold a similar entry. David Evans can be a tricky customer and the stable are not against pulling off a surprise. If backed, it would be worthy of note. Sir Ox looks weak in the early tissue prices but a well-bred two-year-old and a costly purchase at $215,000. A wide draw is far from ideal. However, money for this colt would bring more confidence. The betting is a good guide to the debutantes who will need to be pretty smart to beat the form horses who have experience and decent draws. A turning course favours form horses. I would take a watching brief.