Charlie Appleby's Lazuli to Win at Doncaster

I guess I'm tempting fate with that title.

Charlie Appleby's colt made a sparkling debut at Newmarket well over a month ago. Readers may remember this son of Dubawi as he fairly hurtled home. 

His appearance coincided with the release of our respected 10 Dark Horse Mailing. 

The timing was no coincidence. 

As it happened, we had three class two-year-olds from our prized list competing in the same race. I'm sure you watched the performance. (Lazuli, Ziggle Pops & Skontonovski). They finished 1st, 3rd & 5th, respectively). Skotonoviski finished second next start when looking the winner, while Ziggle Pops managed, finally, to win in splendid isolation on his last start at Brighton. As the saying goes: ''There are no easy races''.

If you wish to learn more about our free 10 Dark Horse Mailing then take a moment to visit Group Horse. We have glowing testimonials. It's no surprise when you see the calibre of the horses we identify before debut. 

Lazuli, a good-looking colt, powered up the Newmarket hill to finish a comfortable winner. 

1:50 Doncaster - [Wednesday]

Only a four-runner race over 6f, but a fair test for Lazuli who is likely to go off favourite. I imagine he will start odds-on. 

These Class 2 Stakes races often lack in numbers. However, the first prize of £11,205 and Plus 10 Race (which gives an additional £10,000 to qualifiers) is up for grabs. The three horses in opposition are very talented in their own right. 

Lampang was fancied to go well on debut for Tim Easterby. Connections must have been hoping for a big run. In general, Easterby has a very poor strike rate with his debutantes, even those starting at very short odds. So it is a promising sign for this colt to win, coming from a long way off the pace, bursting on the scene in the final furlong to win well enough. The second horse, trained by Tom Dascombe, stepped up to a mile next start and won in style. 

I may be completely wrong, but I wouldn't be betting on Lampang to beat Lazuli. 

Mistry Grey is one of the better juveniles in Mark Johnston's stable. Those who take a look at the trainer significant entries will see this of Dark Angel has a list almost as long as your arm. He won impressively at Ripon before being highly tried at Group class. I can see him setting off at a bold pace and playing catch me if you can. A rating of 99 shows he is a Listed horse if not a Group winner waiting to happen. 

Brad the Brief is fielded by Tom Dascombe. A good-looking son of Dutch Art, he won on debut at Bath over five furlongs. This looks a step up in class. It never pays to limit a winner, but this March foal will need to be one of the best in the stable to lower the colours of the favourite. 

This is a fascinating race to enjoy. Hopefully, if Misty Grey sets a decent pace, it won't turn into a tactical affair. Will I be betting in this race? No. Simply because I feel I can find easier opportunities elsewhere at prohibitive odds. However, if Lampang is the major threat in the betting I think Appleby's horse will take some stopping. 

Very close!!!!!

Betting on Saeed bin Suroor for a Winning 2019 Flat Turf Season

So many horse trainers.

I have a few favourites and one is Saeed bin Suroor. He is a such a professional, studious and likeable man. I've seen him a good few times at Great Yarmouth Racecourse. I really need to think of a question to ask him! To be fair, I don't like to push myself on people and respect that a day at the races isn't a Q & A session. 

I felt sorry for bin Suroor when Charlie Appleby kept getting the lion's share of the talented horse, especially two-year-olds. It annoyed me, so I can only imagine how he must have felt. Politics, hey. 

Anyway, we all know that Godolphin is not lacking when it comes to woning, training and winning with exceptional horses. 

You know by now, the Group Horse [Daily] follows two-year-old horse racing to a higher level than anyone on the internet. If you know better, then send them our way and I will have a Q & A session. Even Steve Taplin wouldn't want to meet me on Mastermind. Even my general knowledge is good!

I've started my horse trainer study on Saeed bin Suroor. It isn't, as I keep saying, a pleasurable experience. There's nothing wrong with Mr bin Suroor, his horses or his success. I just need someone to do all the work for me, detail the finds and I'll sit back in West Palm Beach, Florida watching those funny-looking turkey vulture which circles about five miles high. I guess they are just waiting for something to die. 

Going back to a given year...it feels a long time ago, he has run over 400 two-year-olds. My data covers the Flat turf season so it isn't all the season. Anyway, I have been number churning. Not got too far into the stats as yet. I know it will take a few days. Neverending. Very boring work. But crucial to just one of many parts of my understanding. 

Interesting point. From all his debutantes (my data, years...etc) he has never had a debut winner over 12/1. Saying that he hasn't had a huge number of horses start over 12/1.The point why statistics need to be assessed within their context. 

Best get back to work. The 2019 Brocklesby Stakes is getting closer by the day, and I would so love to have all this data stuff concluded. 

Time will tell. 

Wednesday's 2YO Update (28th November)

A quiet couple of days. Heading back home from West Palm Beach, Florida. Will get home about 1pm on Thursday. I will post this early as a freebie. If you like the info then give us a shout via social media. As they say, in giving we receive.  

2:15 Wolverhampton - 

Interesting to see just one significant entrant racing here in the shape of Charlie Appleby's Ophelia's Dream. This homebred daughter of Dubawi is out of a talented mare (Hibaayeb) who ran fifteen times, winning on four occasions, and placed six times. A horse that won the Fillies' Mile at two (group 1), when trained by Clive Brittain. In fact, such a quality filly that all her four wins came at pattern class. She achieved the highest official rating of 114 and total prize earnings of £402,638. 

A prime draw in stall one, if starting on terms. A potentially smart filly who deserves respect on her debut. 

Ophelia's Dream 7/2 Unp 

Note: A slow start and inexperienced. A disappointing effort. Be interesting to see if this filly livens up next start. 

Friday's 2YO Racing Tips

A very quick update detailing a few significantly entered juveniles running today.

1:50 Ascot - 

Godolphin and Charlie Appleby have an interesting contender here with Ceratonia. This bay daughter of Oasis Dream is well bred and noted as a decent two-year-old.  

George Margarson's Model Guest may have her work cut out but isn't without ability. She showed more than her finishing position on debut at Yarmouth. Second start was only a three-horse race but, again, this daughter of Showcasing showed ability. A big price because it's a competitive field. 

2:00 Thirsk - 

Sosume is noted by Karl Burke as having a fair level of ability. He was a bit ring rusty on debut but finished with a rattle. Has been backed from bigger price to favourite and looks a real chance on this second start. 

6:20 Chepstow - 

Mick Channon has done well this season with his two-year-olds and I'Letyougonow ran well on debut when a beaten favourite. This step up in distance will help. The stable think a bit of this filly and she should make her mark at this auction class. 

7:00 York - 

Not bad prize money for this Class 3. Commanding Officer is worth noting for Karl Burke. This son of Poet's Voice looks a good purchase at 34,000 euros for owners Clipper Logistics. 

Nordic Lights makes Debut for Godolphin

It has been a busy time. Lots of interest in our websites regarding Cheltenham and the Grand National. Strange, in ways, when my niche is two-year-old racing. I've got slightly into the upcoming Festival at Prestbury Park. I've written about 50 articles leading up to this betting bonanza which runs from the 13th - 16th March. 

But back to business.

Group Horse entries have proven time and time again they reveal a rich seam of gold. Even when these noted juveniles turn three they still come out all guns blazing. Charlie Appleby has been exceptional with his string.

Take a look at his significant two-year-old entries (now three).  

With the inclement weather Flat racing has been pretty thin on the ground. Certainly thinner than the snow. 

3:30 Lingfield - (Wednesday)

Novice Stakes 1m 2f on Standard going. Nine three-year-olds take part. I will keep this as brief as possible. 

Nordic Lights is a chestnut son of Intello and expensive 2yo breeze-up purchase at 575,000G. Charlie Appleby had this March foal entered for the Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) and National Stakes (Group 1). These entries were given almost a year ago so it is worth keeping that point in mind. However, the class of many of Godolphin's debutantes - especially from Appleby - speaks well. 

I'll just take a quick look to see if any of the field:

No other noted entrants. 

Walk In The Sun trained by Jeremy Noseda

I hate to say it, but we told you so. 

However, no one likes a show off. And we are very unassuming with our big heads, trying to walk through small doors. So what are we talking about? 

Walk In The Sun, trained by Jeremy Noseda. 

As you may realise, Group Horse is all about detailing the best two-year-old horses in training. Often, as is the case for this colt, he didn't run until three. 

Sometimes you have to wait patiently for something good to happen. 

This American-bred bay colt is a son of Street Sense (pictured) in the ownership of Phoenix Thoroughbreds Limited. These owners have very deep pockets and not afraid to put the money down. Purchased by Kerri Radcliffe Bloodstock (vendor Mocklershill) for 1,400,000 euros at the 2yo breeze-up sales. Basically, a suitcase full of money. 

Interesting to note the mare won on debut in France, tasted victory at Listed class and placed at Group 3. She ran at Group 1 level for Andre Fabre. The sire didn't win on debut but achieved 6 wins from 13 start in the States taking 3 Grade 1 races and total prize earnings over £2m. 

Jeremy Noseda always rated Walk In The Sun. The Newmarket handler was in no rush to get this April foal out at two although three significant entries suggest they had plans to do something in his formative season. 

In fact, we had to wait until January 26th to see what all the fuss was about. Ryan Moore was booked to ride and starting at 5/4f told the dogs had been barking. It turned out to be a cracking race, battling to beat First Contact who was burdened with a win penalty. Godolphin's charge made a sturdy opponent. Walk In The Sun ran on well and won a shade cosily.   

Noseda has Walk In The Sun entered for the 2000 Guineas which suggests he will be heading towards the Classic race trials if winning this sort of race well. 

The 2:30 Lingfield  (Tuesday) doesn't look the hardest of fights. With just three horses in opposition punters will need to be a wedge to fill a purse. This should be a walk in the (park) at 1/4f.

Interesting how easy he goes with the win penalty to give some measure. Connections will be expecting a tidy success with lofty plans in the pipeline.

Beautiful Memory, Saeed bin Suroor

Saeed bin Suroor must have been pleased to seen the end of 2017. His string of two-year-olds being depleted to a point of disgrace while Charlie Appleby was the golden boy in blue. 

Even in the darkest times, Suroor has talents lurking in the shadows. Beautiful Memory shone brightly last time out after a couple of placed efforts. 

This home bred daughter of Invincible Spirit has always been held in some regard by connections. Fancied on her first two starts, this March foal wasn't beaten far over 7f but showed marked improvement when returning in January stepping up to 1m 2f. The application of the hood is used once more. Difficult to assess the form of that race but with an ''easy'' 7-length victory it was a great performance. 

This Novice Stakes is restricted to three-year-olds. Beautiful Memory has a win penalty which is negated to some extent by 5lb apprentice William Cox. 

A few fair sorts in opposition so this will be a measure of her ability if prevailing.